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What Vancouver, B.C., can teach us about housing

January 2, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

The Seattle area’s increases in home prices led the nation for the 13th straight month in November, the longest-ever such streak for real estate around Puget Sound. That meteoric rise has made it ever harder for the region’s booming population to buy a home. But if we think it’s difficult in Seattle, look 140 miles north to Vancouver, British Columbia, where experts say house prices are like those of San Francisco but incomes resemble those of sleepy Halifax.

Why the disconnect between the price of a house and what residents can earn locally? Many point to real-estate speculation. The results are sad-but-true websites like Crack Shack or Mansion?, which vividly illustrate the deleterious effect of speculation as run-down houses fetch over $1 million Canadian, and prompt a grassroots campaign by young Vancouverites who angrily profess #DontHave1Million.

Although there is disagreement, some evidence suggests that real estate speculation is also a factor in Seattle’s housing market. That was a notable point of agreement between mayoral candidates Cary Moon, for whom real-estate speculation was her major campaign plank, and Jenny Durkan, who belatedly came around, declaring real-estate speculation a barrier to affordable housing in September.

Housing affordability remains front and center for new Mayor Durkan. On Monday, she announced plans for spending $100 million on affordable housing projects and, in her first official act, she signed an executive order to assist rent-burdened lower income households by streamlining access to the city’s Utility Discount Program and creating a Seattle Rental Housing Assistance Program. Meanwhile, repealing the state ban on rent control is potentially on the docket in Olympia, although some experts believe that approach is counterproductive.

Dealing with rents is one thing. But what about tackling runaway home prices? Trying to actively slow or even reverse the rising value of houses may sound like political suicide in a country where, for good or for ill, homeowners often view their house as an appreciating investment. In metro Vancouver, a broad-based political coalition actively wants to see the cost of housing go down. The consensus was strong enough to boot the conservative B.C. Liberals in May elections that saw the social-democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) take control of the provincial parliament for the first time since 2001.

In Seattle, the fear is that the city could see more cases of speculators who “flip” properties, buying them just to resell a short time later, and that like Vancouver we risk becoming a “hedge city” — a place where the global rich park their money in houses and condos that they live in part-time at best but mostly purchase as a safe place to put their assets.

Both of these phenomena represent a new trend that treats housing as an investment commodity rather than a home, something the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Adequate Housing calls the “financialization of housing.” During an interview earlier this year in Geneva, the rapporteur warned me, “There is so much excess capital floating around and real estate is just that valuable and safe compared to other commodities.”

There are definite similarities between the two biggest metropolitan areas in the Pacific Northwest. “The market pressures are enormous in both Vancouver and Seattle,” Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson told me last year. “We have many of the same challenges.”

But there are key differences. Canadian immigration policy makes it easy for well-heeled foreigners to receive residency, and they’re the ones snapping up Vancouver’s booming luxury condo market to the detriment of renters. By contrast, our cranes are mostly building apartments — a Washington law discourages condo development — and locals in the tech industry are making the kinds of salaries that can afford now-expensive Craftsmans, though believers in speculative influence suggest that even tech money can’t explain Seattle’s current price boom.

Ultimately, these distinctions make for important differences when considering which approaches Seattle, King County and Washington could take to curb real-estate speculation. Crosscut consulted with three experts in the Vancouver housing market to find out what the region has done and what its provincial government is now considering to push back against the rampant speculation that has created a housing market wildly out of sync with what people in Vancouver earn.

Tracking Speculation

 The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s research arm defines speculation as buying and reselling a property within two years and economists have described “astronaut families” who live part-time in Vancouver as a characteristic of a hedge city. But Vancouver has struggled to measure the actual amount of speculative activity taking place.

While Vancouverites can feel the impact anecdotally, urban planner Andy Yan, who coined the term “hedge city,” says the data to make strong empirical claims is lacking. Yan, the director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University, gave the city a grade of “not very well” when it comes to tracking who is buying real estate, where the money is coming from, whether anyone is living in the home, and how soon the property is sold. He chalked up the deficiency to Canadian cities’ weak role in the country’s confederation system, which is not the case in the U.S.

“[King County], you have a tremendous power,” Yan said. “You are able to respond in a much more agile way than metro Vancouver.” This issue became a political football in the Seattle mayor’s race here when City Councilmember Lisa Herbold, taking advantage of the strong collection of housing records here, requested data from King County Assessor John Wilson. The resulting discussion led to Wilson expressing concern about creating a data set based on national origin and, after a series of questions from reporters, Durkan accusing Moon of anti-Asian racism for her interest in information related to possible housing speculation. Yan, a third-generation Chinese Canadian, disputes that collecting speculation data is racist.

But all that may be beside the point when it comes to policymaking. Simon Fraser University economist Joshua Gordon cautioned against an overreliance on data. “Often what you find in this realm is that the call for data and better data is used to forestall policy,” he said. “We don’t need to know exactly how much cancer is being caused by smoking to know we want to tax smoking.”

Empty Homes Tax

At the municipal level, Vancouver City Hall’s most visible response has been a 1 percent tax on empty homes — ones that sit unoccupied more than 180 days per year. It went into effect this year, but leaves Gordon nonplussed. “If the ambition was to free up rental and discourage speculation, they should have done it more boldly,” he said. At 1 percent, the tax is comparable to what King County homeowners already pay in property taxes and so not likely a big deterrent here, where the empty-homes phenomenon is less acute than in Vancouver.

Ultimately, Gordon sees it as a political move. “The empty homes tax was introduced partly in the context of a provincial government not willing to do much, so it was an effort to be seen to be doing something,” he said.

University of British Columbia business professor Tom Davidoff has read anecdotal reports that the number of rental listings bumped up once the tax went into effect, but rents overall have not ceased to rise in the Vancouver market. Still, he sees no problem with a jacked-up tax rate if a rich owner wants to leave a house unoccupied.

“The city would say the goal is not empty houses. I say: It’s OK there are empty homes,” he explained. “If you charge a high enough tax rate, it’s fine either way. Other taxes can be lower and you can spend the money on affordable housing.” But in the larger scheme of Vancouver’s speculation problem, Gordon doesn’t see this issue as the prime culprit. “The empty house phenomenon is very potent in the public mind, but it still doesn’t capture the entirety of the problem.”

Under Washington’s political system, the city would presumably have to receive state authorization to enact such a tax.

Foreign Buyers Tax

In 2016, the provincial government passed a 15 percent tax on foreign buyers, who are widely viewed as the driving force behind Vancouver’s overheated speculative housing market. There was an immediate drop in house prices and the Seattle Times reported that the Emerald City vaulted to the No. 1 most searched market on the Chinese equivalent of Zillow. But more than a year later, entry-level Vancouver housing continues to rise at such a rate that it would take years for incomes to catch up.

“The foreign buyers tax was not a panacea by any means for affordability,” UBC’s Davidoff said. “In fact, affordability has now significantly deteriorated from where it was before — the tax is not necessarily the cause, but it didn’t make [Vancouver] more affordable.” While Gordon agrees it wasn’t “a cure-all,” he says the goal was not to achieve affordability on the strength of that policy alone. Indeed, all three experts agreed that only a suite of policies addressing both the supply and demand sides of housing would be successful in reining in speculation and making housing more affordable for people who live and work in metro Vancouver.

That said, in Gordon’s view, the tax was important. “It raises revenues, discourages speculation, and sends a signal to the market that the government isn’t going to allow housing prices to gallop toward the sky,” he said.

Still, in Seattle’s case, the concern is not exclusively money coming in from overseas like it has been in Vancouver, where purchasers from mainland China far outnumber, say, wealthy Torontonians. In our case, however, the outside influence could also be shell LLCs registered in tax-haven Delaware or hedge funds from Wall Street. A foreign buyer’s tax wouldn’t capture their investments in our market.

BC Housing Affordability Fund

The Foreign Buyers Tax wasn’t good enough to save the fortunes of the BC Liberals, who passed it reluctantly in hopes of holding power but lost this year in provincial elections to the NDP. There is now a popular consensus in British Columbia that home prices have to come down; Gordon thinks prices will have to appreciate another 20 to 30 percent in the Puget Sound before that becomes the consensus here.

While the new provincial administration remains tight-lipped about its housing plans — spokespeople for the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Housing and Municipal Affairs declined to comment — a group of economists, including both Gordon and Davidoff, is pushing the NDP to adopt a plan they call the BC Housing Affordability Fund. The proposed policy would set high property taxes that would be rebated for property owners paying income tax at that address or landlords with long-term tenants — both scenarios in which the property in question is being used for housing. Those just hedging their money with an empty house or renting out on Airbnb would not get the rebate.

The plan works well in the Vancouver context because Canada has high income taxes that pay for a generous social safety net, but low property taxes. As a result, Gordon said, “The world’s wealthy are always going to want to buy real estate and not necessarily pay their fair share, so if you’re going to drive up house prices, at the very least pay your fair share and make life easier for the people you priced out.” With the income-tax provision, the proposal would reconnect the housing market to the labor market in what Gordon called “a tailored balance between pushing prices down and getting revenue.”

Davidoff believes this idea could be adapted as a Seattle-specific measure to scare off speculators. While the federal mortgage interest income tax deduction has a similar effect, entry-level buyers and lower-income owners who take the standard deduction on their tax returns don’t benefit like they could with something similar to the BC proposal.

At its heart, the fund makes a sharp distinction on who is a legitimate player in the housing market. “If you’re not paying income tax at that address and you’re not a landlord, then what are you?” Davidoff asks. “You must have brought the money in from elsewhere.”

by Gregory Scruggs

Filed Under: Seattle, Seattle's Market vs. Vancouver Market, What's Trending Tagged With: Home Trends, U.S. housing investment

Are Foreign Buyers Really Ditching Vancouver For Seattle?

November 27, 2017 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

For those priced out of Vancouver’s housing market, a recent story suggesting that foreign buyers are bailing on Vancouver in favour of Seattle may seem like good news.

But that may not translate into more affordable housing in Vancouver, because even as Seattle becomes the hot new alternative to Vancouver, there are still plenty of foreign buyers staking a claim in the Canadian city.

“A lot of people who were looking in Vancouver are automatically looking further south now to Seattle,” Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Seattle’s Windermere Real Estate,told CBC News.

“It’s like Vancouver, but cheaper,” Chinese real estate broker Yi Liu told the Seattle Times.

The influx of foreign buyers, which Gardner described as “frenetic,” has shot Seattle-area house prices up by 17.6 per cent in the past year, according to the region’s multiple listing service.

A detached home in Seattle now costs US$735,000 (C$934,000). But that is still much lower than the C$1.6 million average price for a detached home in Vancouver.

About half of the foreign buyers in Seattle are from Asia, Gardner said. Chris Hu, the vice-president of Beijing-based real estate agency B.A. & 515J Group, told the Times about half the homes bought by foreigners were for investment purposes, and half were bought to live in.

“The no-growth trend in Vancouver is far different than what we see overall, in all locations.”Byron Burley, Juwai

So does this mean foreign buyers will leave Vancouver alone now? The data suggests that is not happening.

According to an analysis from Chinese real estate portal Juwai, the number of Chinese buyers in the Vancouver market has been “flat as a pancake” for the past year-and-a-half, following a steep plunge in the wake of the foreign buyers’ tax introduced in the summer of 2016.

But Chinese buyer inquiries worldwide jumped 8.7 per cent over the past year year, meaning Vancouver is seeing a shrinking share of overall foreign buyer interest.

“The no-growth trend in Vancouver is far different than what we see overall, in all locations,” said Byron Burley, a B.C.-based vice-president of Juwai, in a press statement.

“Vancouver’s tax is working by driving a share of buyers to other cities, especially Seattle. It has taken the froth off of the top.”

Burley says these days there are more “and-or” buyers — people who look into buying a home in Vancouver and/or Seattle, and/or Toronto, rather than just targeting Vancouver.

“When these uncommitted buyers compare Vancouver prices plus the tax to what they can get somewhere else, sometimes they decide it’s not worth it.”

Despite the change in foreign buyer habits, Burley doesn’t see the city’s housing market declining. The market “is more like a pancake than a deflating soufflé. Buyer demand has not collapsed, it’s merely flat.”

Daniel TencerSenior Business Editor, HuffPost Canada

Filed Under: Affordable Housing, Hottest housing markets, Seattle's Market vs. Vancouver Market Tagged With: Home Trends, Trending Topics, U.S. housing investment

Vancouver’s real estate loss……Could it be Seattle’s gain?

October 25, 2016 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Seattle Cityscape. Seattle Washington Downtown. United States.

Seattle Cityscape. Seattle Washington Downtown. United States.

Ever since the Canadian city hit foreign home buyers with a 15% tax, hungry Chinese bargain hunters are looking elsewhere to invest in real estate. Their next target? Seattle.

“People who were thinking about investing in Vancouver have shifted their interest over here to Seattle,” said May Wan, a Seattle real estate agent who works primarily with buyers from Asia.

She recently worked with a client who was shopping in Vancouver and is now looking in Seattle.

Home prices in Vancouver had been exploding, jumping 25% since 2014, thanks largely to demand from foreign buyers. The city abruptly passed the tax in August in an effort to cool down the market.

The number of sales involving a foreigner buyer in Vancouver dropped to 0.7% in the month following the new tax, according to data from the British Columbia government. That’s a stark difference from the two months prior to the tax’s implementation, when foreign buyers made up 16.5% of all sales.

At the same time, real estate agents in Seattle are reporting an uptick in Chinese buyers lately.

“Historically, Seattle has attracted less real estate money from China compared to Los Angeles and New York, but we are catching up for a lot reasons, and Vancouver is one of the reasons” said James Owen, an agent with Windermere Real Estate.

Seattle real estate broker Janie Lee closed two deals recently with buyers who were previously thinking about Canada and pivoted to Seattle.

“Foreign buyers are 55% of all transactions in the state,” said Lee, who works with foreign buyers and speaks six Chinese dialects. She added that the rise in property values in China allows buyers to sell one condo in their home country to afford two single-family homes in some parts of the Northwest.

“We have inquiries from realtors in Vancouver interested in bringing their buyers to Seattle,” said Wan.

Owen has noticed a difference at open houses too. During a recent showing, about 16 of the 20 house hunters were from another country.

“Most of the time they have cash, so for the sellers it’s great.”

To take advantage of the new business opportunities, Owen has been trying to learn Mandarin.

Seattle agents are also actively marketing their homes to attract Chinese buyers. “We know that a large proportion of the offers are going to come from the Chinese,” Owen said. “We are definitely trying to put those premier properties in front of them.”

While many international buyers are investors looking for a safe haven to park their cash, some are also looking to live in the states and become citizens.

But Seattle isn’t exactly cheap.

Prices have increased 11.2% since last year, the second biggest gain in the nation, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.

“Local folks may not be able to afford their next home at the local income rate,” said Lee.

Filed Under: Seattle's Market vs. Vancouver Market Tagged With: housing prices, U.S. housing investment

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Eastside Real Estate Blog

The Cost Of Purchasing A Home In The U.S. Increased 55% Last Year. But It’s Still A Great Time To Buy A House For These Five Reasons

I’ve always been all-in on homeownership. Yet, for the first time in two decades … Read More

New Listings Signal Hope Is On The Horizon For Home Buyers

At the midpoint of April, housing markets are reflecting a changing landscape, … Read More

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