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Issaquah Real Estate | Call: 206-999-1690

LARRY & KATHY REICHLE, EASTSIDE REAL ESTATE TEAM

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The Cost Of Purchasing A Home In The U.S. Increased 55% Last Year. But It’s Still A Great Time To Buy A House For These Five Reasons

May 31, 2022 by Amy Leave a Comment

I’ve always been all-in on homeownership. Yet, for the first time in two decades since the beginning of the pandemic, I haven’t owned a home.

All of which got me thinking: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) just issued a report calculating that the cost of purchasing a house in the U.S. has increased 55% year over year since 2021 after factoring in home value appreciation, tax re-assessments, and mortgage rate increases.

So, from a seller’s standpoint did I just miss out on the frothiest bull housing market in decades?

Home Sales Increase Slightly As Prices Drop

The pandemically-fueled housing market is breaking records and making homeowners fortunes.

In two senses the answer, unfortunately, is yes.

The pandemically-fueled housing boom since 2020 as a function of appreciation over time is unprecedented against any other historical financial metric, including the recent Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P run ups.

That percentage gain also translates directly into higher appraised home values, which means more equity in sellers’ pockets when they decide it’s time to move. Ergo in sum, homeowners have seen a better return on their real estate investments over a shorter period of time since 2020 than even the pre-Great Recession housing bubble.

The good news for people like me who’ve either rented by choice, been priced out of the current market by the math, or sat on the real estate sidelines for other personal reasons over the past two years, however, is that now is still a great time to buy a home for several reasons under the right circumstances.

UK Daily Life 2021

It’s no longer just a seller’s market.

First and foremost, the COVID housing froth finally is cooling off.

Listings are up along with new housing starts, closings are down, and the days of all cash, waive-all-contingencies bidding wars are waning. So, excluding places like San Francisco or Manhattan where home prices had reached the point of almost stupid years ago, buyers in most markets already are on the back side of the pandemic peak.

“The overheated market of 2021 is already transitioning toward a less frantic landscape in response to several factors, and housing’s fundamentals are already shifting from the early days of the pandemic,” says George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research at Realtor.com. “Builders have ramped up the pace of construction and more new homes are hitting the market. In addition, many homeowners who delayed their plans during the pandemic are ready to move forward with their lives so we’re already seeing an increase in the number of new listings—a sign of improving supply in existing homes. This boost in inventory, coupled with higher mortgage rates, inevitably is going to put downward pressure on the frenetic price growth we have experienced over the past year. That’s good news for buyers who have time on their side since the real estate landscape over the next 8-12 months is likely to shift away from a seller’s only market.”

The 25-44 year old population is up about 50% in the past decade in the Logan Circle/Shaw neighborhoods.

Millennials are now the largest demographic cohort in the U.S. and the largest pool of potential.

Many would-be home buyers, especially Millennials without kids, also have been stashing cash in lieu of eating out and taking vacations since the beginning of the pandemic, resulting in a COVID-induced nest egg alternatively deployable for down payments, closing costs, moving, and renovations—which often are the primary financial impediments to purchasing a home in the first place.

Perhaps most importantly, almost every expert I’ve spoken with agrees that the current housing boom isn’t a “bubble” a la 2007. Housing’s core fundamentals are strong—meaning the basics of supply and demand as well as the mortgages and household balance sheets upon which those foundations are based aren’t about to shatter from a glass house rock out of nowhere any time soon.

Here are five other specific reasons why now is a great time to buy a home.
Lake Boca Raton and city skyline with reflections at sunset

Housing prices aren’t going down any time soon especially in places like South Florida.

Prices Aren’t Going Down

No matter who you talk to, it’s widely agreed that U.S. home values across the board aren’t dropping any time soon. This is due primarily to a single-family housing supply crisis and demographic shifts that have been building for years. So even while homes prices might seem inflated right now by the numbers, they aren’t artificially elevated like they were back in in 2005.

“A couple of factors are likely to keep pressure on prices for the foreseeable future,” says Realtor.com’s Ratiu. “The first one is demographics. Millennials are the largest cohort in the U.S., are embracing homeownership, and eager to use real estate as a foundation for financial and economic growth. With over 4.5 million Millennials turning 30 over the next few years, housing demand will remain robust. At the same time, we started 2022 in the wake of over a decade of under-building. Based on Realtor.com’s calculations, we are short 5.8 million new single-family homes across the country which will sustain demand and prices.”

That means buying a home now is still a solid, low risk money parking strategy, especially when the non-financial benefits of homeownership are taken into account like being the master of your destiny instead of a landlord’s and being able to renovate or build an addition if you end up working from home for the rest of your life.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks At ″Fed Listens″ Event

Despite the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hikes residential mortgage rates are still 

Mortgage Rates

In 1981, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to put the breaks on inflation pushed 30-year fixed mortgage rates to an all-time high of 18.63%. So, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary tightening and interest rate increases (the current 30-year mortgage rate according to Bankrate is 5.46%)—and the possibility of subsequent ones to come later this year—mortgage interest rates overall remain historically low.

While the days of crazy cheap money are temporarily over and paying down a typical mortgage has jumped by $633/month for a median priced home, the historical price of entry to purchase a house in the U.S. is still lower than it’s been on average for the past 50 years.
New Home Construction At The Highest Level In 17 Years

The mortgage interest tax deduction is still one of the best financial benefits of homeownership. 

Taxes

For first time homebuyers who’ve been renting for years, homeownership comes with a ton of perks.

One of the more mundane yet financially profound of them is the mortgage income tax deduction, which the National Association of Realtors has masterfully lobbied to keep in the U.S. tax code for decades. This allows for up to 100% of the interest you pay on your mortgage to be deducted from your gross income in addition to the other deductions for which you are eligible like the standard personal deduction and deducting for home office expenses before your final tax liability in any given year is calculated.

Depending on the price of your home and the size of your mortgage, these aren’t small numbers, especially as interest rates rise. Some years in some houses, particularly in 2005 when I bought a home at an 8%+ rate, my mortgage interest deduction was well into the $20,000 range—which for a writer is no small nut to be able to write down off of my total earned income (in some years the mortgage interest deduction alone brought me down into an entirely different tax bracket).

In addition, after two years the profits from selling your house assuming it’s your primary residence aren’t taxed by capital gains which means more net money into your pocket after closing costs.

Rents Are Increasing Too

The pandemically-fueled home price increases in the U.S. over the past two years have been widely reported in the media, yet far less covered has been the fact that residential rents have been rising too. Rents in Boise, ID, for example, have increased over 13% since the beginning of the pandemic, almost double that of inflation as a whole. In Miami according to some estimates they’re up over 31%.

So for home buyers weighing the opportunity costs of continuing to rent and throwing their money away versus getting into the homeownership game and building long-term wealth, the logic isn’t as clear as it’s been in the past when rents typically have dropped asymmetrically relative to home price increases in a similar fashion to investors fleeing stock markets in favor of government backed bonds.

Landlords, and the rent increases they impose, also aren’t tied to the federal funds rate like banks and mortgage lenders, so when it comes to owning a home there’s at least some certainty that homeownership inflation will remain linked long-term to well-intended monetary policy rather than the whims of Wall Street and private equity firms.
Bay Area Feels The Effects Of Plunging Housing Market

Real estate is still one of the best wealth building strategies long term. 

Wealth Building

No matter how you slice the numbers, long-term homeownership is still one of the most predictable, risk-manageable wealth building strategies compared with other ways of deploying one’s income for a return on investment. So compared with renting, even at today’s 5.46% mortgage rates, building equity in a house instead of renting is still a hard logic to argue with—especially if home prices remain strong.

“Inflation and its upward pressure on price levels is less like the tide and more akin to climate change and the impact it has had on rising ocean levels,” says Realtor.com’s Ratiu. “Once prices reach a higher watermark, they are likely to only move up from there. Consider that in 1972, the median value of a new home in the U.S. was $29,200. By 1992, median price reached $126,000, and it further advanced to $190,100 in 2002. During the mid-2000s housing boom, median prices peaked at $257,400. The housing bust of 2008 saw median new home values decline to $208,400. However, the ensuing recovery pushed prices to $327,100 by the fourth quarter of 2019, and the shift brought about by the pandemic only accelerated the trajectory. Based on Census data, the first quarter of 2022 saw median prices above $428,000 for new homes. Meanwhile, hampered by a significant shortage of supply, median prices for existing homes also reached new records, hitting $425,000. While the historical values are not adjusted for inflation, housing remains one of the most predictable ways to build wealth over time.”
Celebs' mansions in Miami, United States on February 09, 2001.

Real estate—still a safe bet. Especially in markets like Miami. 

What all of this means for the U.S. housing market writ large is good news, says Craig Studnicky, founder of Miami-based real estate brokerage RelatedISG.

“The pandemic set off a worldwide frenzy for single-family homes. In the early days of COVID, people started to realize that it was easier to manage social distancing in a house where you typically have more space and you didn’t have to share an elevator or lobby with your neighbors. People then discovered the joy of owning a house because of the space and privacy it offers. In addition, suddenly people could work remotely and had the freedom to live anywhere, so they wanted to move to places like South Florida where the weather is great all year round. Mortgage rates also hit historic lows which helped accelerate the home buying frenzy, especially as the Millennial generation became of homebuying age. Demand quickly started to outstrip supply, sending prices spiraling. And historically when prices go up to these levels, they rarely come down and the widespread housing supply shock we’re currently experiencing won’t be resolved anywhere overnight. Houses have become a gold standard for investments and that’s not changing anytime soon on Wall Street or Main Street.”
By:
Peter Lane Taylor

Filed Under: Eastside Real Estate Blog, Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Home Buying, Home Prices, homeownership, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Taxes

New Listings Signal Hope Is On The Horizon For Home Buyers

April 26, 2022 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

At the midpoint of April, housing markets are reflecting a changing landscape, according to a new report by Realtor.com. With Americans looking beyond the pandemic toward a new normal, businesses reopening offices and attempting to persuade workers to return, and people ready to embrace warmer weather in vacation destinations, real estate markets are welcoming an influx of new inventory.

As Realtor.com’s Spring 2022 Seller report highlights, many homeowners are ready to move forward with pandemic-delayed plans. Moreover, many of them are looking to trade up from their first home into a larger one, to accommodate growing families, or a smaller one, to leverage record-high equity for retirement.

More inventory is the missing component in today’s housing markets, and the main driver of record-high prices. An improvement on this front will go a long way toward restoring balance and provide a more sustainable growth path.

“The past week’s data spotlights a market still struggling with a shortage of inventory and rising prices,” said Realtor.com senior economist George Ratiu. “However, there are clear green shoots, and the moderation in the upward price trajectory is an indication we are moving toward more balance.”

He said, “These factors are especially important this year, as families are facing significantly higher bills, from food, clothing and gasoline, to airfare, medical costs and daycare. In addition, higher rents and home prices are further pinching take-home paychecks, which although rising at a solid clip, are not keeping pace with inflation. Encouragingly, data from the past few weeks are pointing toward more housing options, better balance and more approachable prices later this year.”

The median listing price advanced 14.9% over last year. Home prices continued increasing for the 17th straight week of double-digit gains. However, Ratiu said the growth trajectory moderated, as new inventory and rising mortgage rates are taking some of the steam out of price pressures.

He explained, “With home buyers squeezed from multiple directions by higher home prices, interest rates and inflation, market demand is expected to moderate and lead to slowing momentum for property appreciation.”

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—bounced higher for the second week in a row. The number of homes for sale remains near a record low, however, Realtor.com is seeing movement in an encouraging direction. As indicated by the Spring 2022 Seller report, 18% of American homeowners plan to sell a home this year, and 64% of them aim to do so by August.

New listings increased 1% from the same week in 2021. An increasing number of homes for sale would offer more options not only for first-time buyers, but also for homeowners looking for their next house, as many homeowners have been hampered in their search by limited inventory.

Active inventory is down just 12% from a year ago. The steep decline in the number of homes actively for sale has been slowing noticeably over the past few weeks.

“The 12% yearly decline highlights a still-active market, with solid demand,” said Ratiu. “However, the improvement in the number of fresh listings is contributing to a clear path toward a more balanced inventory landscape. The good news for markets and buyers is that, at the current pace, we may see the number of homes for sale rise above last year’s levels by summer.”

Homes spent six days less on the market than this time last year. In March, the typical home was listed for a little over a month before a buyer made a successful offer on it, a very short turnaround period. Nearing the mid-April point, homes are still moving quickly, spending six fewer days on the market than a year ago. Yet, mirroring the other indicators, trends are shifting more visibly away from the overheated environment of the past year.

By:
Brenda Richardson
Forbes

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: home buyers, New Listings, Spring Real Estate Market, Trending Housing Topics

Upscale Kitchen Features That Can Boost A Home’s Value

November 17, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Between preparing to host family and friends for Thanksgiving and making gift lists and checking them twice, the whirlwind of activities during the busy holiday season can feel more like a blast of arctic air than a hint of festive cheer.

Kitchens are put through the ultimate stress test on Thanksgiving, with every appliance and inch of countertop space pushed to the limit. However, certain kitchen features are not only better equipped to handle the pressures of entertaining a crowd, they could increase a home’s sale price when it comes time to move.

Steam oven: Of the more than 220 features or design elements Zillow researched, steam ovens topped the 2021 list of home features that sell. When this trendy appliance is mentioned in listing descriptions, those homes can sell for 4.9% more than similar homes without one.

“Steam — usually combined with convection — fuels a powerful cooking appliance that can enhance a kitchen designed for wellness,” says Jamie Gold, author of Wellness by Design. “A combi-steam oven offers health benefits and functionality. It cooks food with reduced fat and better-preserved nutrients, and allows home cooks to multitask and get food on the table quickly. This popular appliance type will perfectly cook protein, vegetable sides and pie at the same time.”

Butcher block: This is the only countertop material that can also serve as a cutting surface, which comes in handy when cooking for a crowd. Buyers snap up homes that include butcher block in their listing descriptions nearly four days faster and for 2.7% more than expected.

Smart appliances: Tech-connected kitchen appliances allow cooks to control everything from their grocery list to a dish’s cooking time, all from their phone or tablet. Smart refrigerators can send homeowners a text message to let them know they have run out of milk, while smart ovens can monitor how the turkey is cooking and automatically shift to warming mode when it’s done.

When it’s time to move, homes with smart appliances can sell for 3% more than expected.

Quartz: Homes with this durable countertop material can sell for 3.2% more than expected, and for good reason, according to Gold.

“Quartz, also called engineered stone, offers a low-maintenance kitchen work surface ideal for busy households and Thanksgiving meal prep,” Gold explained. “This countertop material has grown in popularity for its heat, stain and scratch resistance, and for increasingly realistic stone looks. Quartz’s nonporous properties make it an ideal surface when handling raw turkey or eggs, because it won’t harbor bacteria.”

Dual-fuel range: This stove offers the best of both worlds for home cooks with a gas cooktop and an electric oven. Electric ovens can offer more consistent results for baking, ensuring the Thanksgiving mac and cheese or pumpkin pie is evenly browned. A gas cooktop heats quickly and offers more precise temperature control for cooking cranberry sauce and gravy.

Home buyers also eat up this feature, and can spend 2.2% more on properties that include mention of a dual-fuel range in their listing descriptions.

Wine fridge: Extra beverage storage is always helpful when serving a crowd, and a wine fridge can chill much more than just wine. Plus, homes with this useful feature can sell for 1.7% more and nearly two days faster than expected.

Pot filler: A pot filler installed over a cooktop or range swings out from the wall and extends over a pot, making it easy to fill when preparing to cook pasta or boil potatoes, saving cooks the trouble of carrying a heavy pot of water from the sink to the stove. Plus, Zillow research finds this faucet can contribute to homes selling for 1.5% more.

Touchless faucet: With health and safety top of mind for today’s buyers, homes with touchless faucets can sell nearly two days faster than expected and for 0.6% more. Motion-activated technology turns on the kitchen faucet, making for easier Thanksgiving cleanup and preventing the spread of bacteria and viruses.

There are many factors that contribute to the speed of a home’s sale and to its sale price, and installing these kitchen amenities does not guarantee or definitively cause a home’s ultimate sale price to rise. Instead, these features contribute to a buyer’s overall positive impression of a home, and in turn, the buyer’s willingness to pay more for that home.

And one more note: If these features just happen to deliver a dry turkey and burned pumpkin pie, consider a pizza oven, which can contribute to a 3.4% sale premium.

“The kitchen has long been the heart of the home and it’s become even more important this past year,” says Amanda Pendleton, Zillow’s home trends expert. “As a result, pandemic-era home buyers appear willing to pay a premium for high-end kitchen amenities. Homeowners who plan to put their home on the market would be wise to flaunt these features if they’ve got them. But resale aside, these value-boosting features also increase a kitchen’s functionality, especially during the holidays.”

By:

Brenda Richardson

Filed Under: Issaquah Real Estate Tagged With: Home Improvement, Home ownership, Home Trends, Issaquah Real Estate, Selling your home, Smart Appliances, Upscale Kitchen

Seven Ways to Ace a Minimalist Home Décor

October 27, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

 

You’d be hard-pressed to find someone who hasn’t heard of minimalism. What started in the early 1960s as an art movement has since become a popular lifestyle choice.

Minimalism in interior design is all about emphasizing utility. A minimalist home is intentional, with muted colors and limited objects. The end goal is to showcase the essentials in a chic and organized atmosphere.

Does this sound easy enough? Think again. Acing the minimalist décor isn’t a cakewalk. You’ll need quite a bit of brainwork to pick items that are both eye-catching and functional. Add to that the stress of decluttering your entire home, and you have yourself a redecorating nightmare.

That said, creating a minimalist home isn’t impossible. If a minimalist space has been on your wish list for long, here are seven ways you can do it justice.

1. Starting with Furniture

Choosing minimalist furniture is tricky because you have fewer pieces to work with. So, you need to weigh your options carefully before adding anything to your living space.

As a rule of thumb, look for items that are timeless and interesting. Simplistic furniture with clean, hard lines is ideal for minimalist homes.

While we’re on the subject, cabinets are a must-have in minimalist décor. They provide more concealed space for you to stow away stuff, ensuring clutter control. Think pristine white Shaker cabinets with little to no design.

The choices don’t end there. In case you want something with a little more character, you can always opt for customized cabinet arrangements tailored to your requirements.

2. Experimenting with Negative Space

Not every inch of your home needs furnishing. Leaving empty spaces in a room can make it breathable, airy, and light, generating an overall sense of tranquility.

Try this on for size by starting with one large clear flat surface (such as your kitchen countertop), one bare wall, and clean floors. Sit in the space and see how it feels. Remember that the more you experiment, the easier it’ll be for you to find the right look for your home.

If you feel the need to decorate your negative space, add simple touches like indoor plants or framed artwork. This should amplify the coziness while still maintaining an understated aesthetic.

3. Adding Accent Decorations

Switching to a minimalist décor does not mean you cannot have fun with colors. Using accent shades, furniture, or artwork can help you keep the place dynamic without overwhelming your home.

As the name implies, an accent is anything that stands out against the rest of the décor. For example, a brightly colored table in the middle of an all-white living room is an accent piece. Likewise, a large portrait on a bare wall serves as an accent.

When picking accents for your home, try sticking to one or two pieces per room. You want to draw attention to the space without jeopardizing its serenity. From a minimalist point of view, a single large item is far better than multiple smaller pieces.

4. Playing with Neutral Colors

Although you may have a splash of color in a minimalist room, a major part of the space should still be plain and muted. But why are minimalists so obsessed with light colors?

For starters, pastel/neutral hues can make any space look bigger. They also reflect more light, creating a brighter environment.

While white is by far the color of choice for most minimalists, you also have shades like grey and beige to pick from.

A smart way to make the colors in your room flow is to pick a solid base color and build on it. Make sure that all other colors complement the base shade. For example, for elegant white walls, you can go with marble countertops and pearl-white upholstery, among other things.

5. Minding the Lighting

There’s a fine line between an elegant minimalist home and a bleak, uncharacteristic one. You can avoid falling into the second category by paying attention to your lighting choices.

Fortunately, modern light fixtures come in a ton of fun shapes and sizes. Get hold of a statement chandelier or pendant lamp to jazz up the place. Don’t be afraid to select something a little more out-of-the-ordinary for your dining room or kitchen area.

For concrete ceilings, use drop-down lighting panels for that all-around soft, natural glow. LED cover lights should do the trick just as well.

6. Adding Patterns Wisely

Most minimalists do away with patterns altogether. In case you decide on keeping them, go with something that’s tone-to-tone, unobtrusive, and simple. Also, try to use patterns on a smaller scale.

A few patterned throw pillows and curtains can break the monotony of your room, but be sure to balance them out with a lot of empty space. Moreover, you can hardly go wrong with a patterned carpet for the center of your room.

7. Committing to Decluttering

Decluttering is probably the most important step to achieving a minimalist home. Since minimalism advocates the ‘less is more’ mindset, you need to get rid of items that don’t serve a purpose. If you have two of the same things, toss one out. If there’s an outfit you haven’t worn in years, give it away. Sure, it’s tough to let go of stuff, but the whole point of minimalism is to live with less.

Once you’re done cleaning out your home, it’s time to think about storage. In this regard, everything can act as storage space if you’re creative enough. Invest in an ottoman for your dresser to hide smaller items. Install some tasteful shelves on a bare wall to display a few books. The possibilities are endless!

Wrapping Up

Minimalist décor can work wonders for your mental well-being. It’s the easiest way to create a stress-free space to help you unwind after a hard day. Hopefully, these seven tips will help you bring your dream minimalist home alive in no time!

By Riley Swanson

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: declutter, Home Decor Trends 2021, lighting, Minimalist, minimalist furniture, negative space

‘The Fever Has Broken’: Is the Housing Market Frenzy Really Going To Cool Off This Fall?

October 6, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

 

Over the next few weeks and months, the long-overheated U.S. housing market is expected to continue to cool off in the bracing chill of autumn.

After a wild year of unprecedented price increases, a worsening shortage of homes for sale, and cutthroat bidding wars where offers six figures over the ask price weren’t uncommon, conditions are finally normalizing. More homes are expected to go up for sale this season just as many would-be buyers are either priced out or so fed up after losing out on home after home that they’re dropping out of the running.

“The fever in the housing market has broken,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of building consultancy Zonda. “There have been buyers that have just been beat down for the last six months—and after losing so many homes and going through the emotional roller coaster, they’ve decided to stop searching for now. There are more homes on the market than there were six months ago.”

During the COVID-19 pandemic, record-low mortgage interest rates, below 3%, helped many homebuyers to absorb prices that reached all-time highs in the spring and summer. But prices rose so high so quickly that even bargain mortgage rates couldn’t offset them enough to give buyers some needed financial relief.

With more folks sidelined, some of the steam has been let out of the market. Prices aren’t rising by as much as competition is down and homes are taking a little longer to sell, giving buyers some breathing room.

In September, the rate of year-over-year growth was halved, to 8.6%, down from its peak of 17.2% in April, according to Realtor.com® data. This means the median list price of a home grew half as fast as in the spring. Homes also took a bit longer to sell, at about 43 days. While that’s down 11 days from the same month last year and 22 days from 2019, it’s up 6 days from June.

“Things are settling down. There will still be some multiple offers, but it will be less tense,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®. He expects the days of homes receiving 20 to 30 offers are becoming a thing of the past. “And some homes are lingering on the market for a week or two without an offer.”

This fall, buyers may once again be able to include contingencies in their offers, such as requiring home inspections and appraisals, and still win out bidding wars. They may even—gasp—get homes at the list price.

All-cash offers could also dip if buyers don’t need to cash out their savings, stocks, and cryptocurrency stashes to stand out from the competition.

“It’s not like the market is soft,” says Yun. “It’s just moving away from that extreme frenzy.”

The changes in the housing market may be coinciding with the seasonal slowdown. Typically, competition is fierce in the summer as families battle over larger homes in the suburbs, hoping to secure residences and settle in before the kids start school. Then the market slows down with less competition for the smaller homes that traditionally go up for sale.

Yun expects annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, around 5%, versus the double-digit price hikes that reigned earlier in the year. But this may not be true for every home in every part of the country.

“If you want a reasonably priced home in a desirable area, be ready to still face stiff competition,” says Zonda’s Wolf.

Will home prices fall?

The question on the minds of sellers, buyers, homeowners, and just about everyone else is whether prices might actually fall. Sorry, buyers, that likely won’t happen anytime soon.

The nation is still suffering from a severe housing shortage resulting in more buyers than there are abodes for sale. This is a continuing hangover from the Great Recession’s aftermath, when builders largely held off on building while investors bought up single-family homes and turned them into rentals. Meanwhile, the millennial generation is larger than the previous one, meaning there are more prospective buyers than there were a decade or so ago.

There’s plenty of pent-up demand for homes.

“You’ve still got a lot of young people who have still not bought a home but who would like to,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “Anytime the market starts to cool, you’ve got people on the sidelines waiting for their chance to get in. That keeps both home sales and home prices from declining too much.”

She expects more homes to hit the market in October and through the end of the year. But it won’t be enough to ameliorate the problem of demand.

The nation is still short about 5 million homes, Hale says. As builders can’t get them up fast enough, she expects it will take between five and six years before there are enough homes for sale to meet demand.

New construction is beginning to pick up after months of builders contending with shortages in lumber, labor, materials, and appliances. While there are still delays compared with before the pandemic, there was about a 5% uptick in construction in August compared with July, says Zonda’s Wolf.

“Inventory is still very, very tight,” says Wolf. But “we’re up from the bottom. We expect to see a little more inventory trickle onto the market through the end of this year and into next year.”

Rising mortgage rates will likely keep high prices under control

Rising mortgage interest rates are expected to keep price growth in check: After all, buyers can afford to fork over only so much for their monthly housing payments. So if rates rise, buyers won’t be able to afford more expensive properties.

This could result in lower price growth, or prices going flat or even dipping a little in certain markets.

“Once mortgage rates push up a little bit, it’s going to combine with higher home prices to price people out of the market,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Some markets could see prices go down a little, like in the most juiced markets. … [But] it’s not a crash.”

Rates are expected to top 3% by the end of the year and reach 4% by the end of 2022, says Joel Kan, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. They averaged 2.88% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending Sept. 23, according to the most recent Freddie Mac data.

Historically speaking, even 4% is still low. Over the past 20 years, mortgage rates averaged about 5%, according to MBA. The difference between a 3% and a 4% rate on a $380,000 home (the median list price nationally) was about $169 a month on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. That adds up to nearly $61,000 over the life of the loan.

“We’re expecting rates to increase moderately over the next 12 months,” says Kan. “As the economy improves, as the job market improves, typically that pushes rates higher. [But] there is a little bit more uncertainty now, given that we’ve seen the pandemic linger longer than we expected.”

How will the fall market affect home sellers?

While experts predict the housing market will remain firmly in the seller’s court, the days of picking prices out of thin air are likely coming to an end. The same goes for not making any improvements to a property (let alone having it properly cleaned) before listing it.

“Some sellers got a little too greedy or had a misconception about the market conditions,” says NAR’s Yun.

Zonda’s Wolf recommends sellers look at comps of other homes in their neighborhoods that have recently sold to get a realistic idea of what they can charge for their properties. They should also get their homes in tiptop shape. And while they may not get 20 offers like their neighbors may have received a few months ago, well-priced, move-in ready homes are in high demand.

“If you’re a seller today, you’ll likely still get top dollar, but you’re still going to have to put in the work,” adds Wolf. “Dust for cobwebs, stage the home, put on a fresh coat of paint.”

 

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: buyers, Coronavirus, days on market, fall, first time home buyers, home buyers, Home Inventory, Home Prices, home sellers, Housing, Housing Market, Low Inventory, Pandemic, Recession, Sellers, supply

Moving Down: Eight Things You Need to Know

September 22, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

People move down for all kinds of reasons, but the most common is financial. If you’ve made the choice to trade your place in for less space, you may think dealing with less square footage will be the biggest change. But there’s a lot more to it than that. Here are eight things you need to know about moving down.

You might need to downsize your furniture, too.

What’s one of the first things we say when we tour a new home: “Our furniture would fit perfectly in here.” But if you’re downsizing, that might not be the case. You may have fewer rooms to furnish, and the proportions of the rooms you do have may be smaller.

If you’re looking for a smaller place for financial reasons, you’re probably not keen on spending money on new furniture. Be sure to measure your large pieces and take those measurements with you when touring homes. If it comes down to a couple of homes you’re considering, maybe the one with the larger living room that can accommodate your sectional gets the edge.

You may have to compromise less with new construction.

New homes today are built to feel more open and maximize storage. If you’re worried about going smaller, look to new construction.

Your bills may go down.

If you’re trying to save money, the fact that a smaller home will presumably not only cost you less for your mortgage but also your ongoing bills is great news. If you can get a handle on how much your utilities will be (This is a good thing to ask your real estate agent, who can then reach out to the seller’s agent), you might even be able to use the presumed savings to boost your buying power…or to sock money away every month.

You may also save time.

Less square footage means less to clean and maintain! If you also have a smaller outdoor area, mowing and yard work will also be easier, allowing you to spend that leftover time pursuing other activities and interests.

You may have some tough decisions to make.

City or suburbs. Attached or single-family. Long commute or not. When your homebuying plans are dictated by budget, the decision-making process can be challenging. Written pro-con lists can be tremendously helpful in helping you sort out your feelings. But make sure to be brutally honest with yourself. If you’re leaning toward a move to the suburbs and you’ve written off how grueling a long commute can be, you may be in for a rude awakening.

Other people may have to compromise, too.

“No room for guests: Hosting a huge holiday dinner might be out of the question in a smaller home,” said The Balance. “Out-of-town guests might need to stay at a hotel when they come to visit.”

There may be a mourning period.

People often tend to embrace the IDEA of moving down before they really embrace the reality. The idea of less square footage might be acceptable if it saves you money…but the reality of less space often feels like a loss.

It’s OK to see it that way. Anytime there’s a big life change, we need time to adjust. Give yourself time to mourn the loss of the home you’re leaving. It may make the transition easier.

See the upside.

“While your home lifestyle varies from your neighbors, many homeowners agree that smaller homes enable the family to bond and work together as opposed to large and spread out floor plan homes,” said Freshome. “Smaller homes create an environment where family members and roommates get organized and can compromise over living arrangements, sharing closets, and making a small home feel cozy instead of cramped. Instead of looking at a smaller home as a down-grade, look at it as a way to a happier domicile.”

WRITTEN BY JAYMI NACIRI

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Downsizing, Financial Advice, New Construction

Study: Homes prices in Seattle are expected to rise 18% over the next year

September 10, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Home prices in the Seattle metro area are expected to rise 18% over the next year, according to a new study by Porch.

“Over the past 18 months, home prices across the nation have shot up to levels unseen since the build-up to the 2008 financial crisis,” researchers wrote in the study. “In April 2021, the year-over-year growth of the Case-Shiller Index, the premier metric for housing prices, eclipsed 14.5% for the first time in its history.”

By analyzing data from Zillow, Redfin and the Census Bureau, researchers at Porch calculated expected rises in home prices in 51 large metros across the U.S. Seattle’s forecasted rise in home costs was ranked the 19th highest on that list. Austin, Texas, took the top spot — homes prices there are expected to rise by more than 37% over the next year.

This chart shows a list of large metros in the U.S. where home prices are expected to increase the most over the next year. Seattle is at spot 19. 
This chart shows a list of large metros in the U.S. where home prices are expected to increase the most over the next year. Seattle is at spot 19.

Real estate experts say the nation’s dwindling supply of homes is to blame for skyrocketing prices.

In June, the National Association of Realtors released a report calling for a dire, “once-in-a-generation” solution to the shrinking supply of houses in the U.S. That report estimates the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of anywhere from 5.5 million to 6.8 million units.

In their study, which was released last week, analysts at Porch detailed how such prices are affecting buyers:

“Redfin data revealed the percentage of homes selling above asking price shot up 13 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic levels,” Porch analysts wrote. “More than 60% of buyers were putting offers on houses sight unseen and the number of homes being bought without an inspection nearly doubled compared to the previous year.”

In Seattle alone, more than 4,500 homes have sold for at least $100,000 above asking price in 2021. During the same period last year, just 400 Seattle homes sold for more than $100,000 above asking price.

While large metros — areas with more than one million people — are leading the nation in expected jumps in housing costs, the nation’s biggest midsize (350,000 to 999,999 people) and small (100,000 to 349,999 people) metros are also expected to see housing prices increase over the next year, according to the study.

Alec Regimbal, Seattle P-I

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Home Prices, Low interest rates, Real Estate

How to get one of those record-low 15-year mortgage rates for your refinance

August 26, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

In the days before the pandemic, 15-year mortgages — with their usually stiff monthly payments — were far too expensive for many people refinancing their homes. Borrowers often just grabbed another 30-year home loan, America’s go-to mortgage.

But with the COVID crisis keeping mortgage rates in the cellar, even the 15-year option has been looking cheap. That’s especially true right now, with 15-year rates at an all-time low in the latest survey from mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

More borrowers have been choosing the shorter-term loans: In May, 15-year mortgages accounted for 15.8% of all home loan originations, up from just 5.5% in May 2019, according to the latest data from the Urban Institute.

Here’s how to evaluate if a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is right for you — and how to land one of today’s all-time-low 15-year rates.

Today’s 15-year mortgages offer big savings

Serious man and woman calculating bills, using calculator and laptop, online banking services, family discussing and planning budget, focused wife and husband checking finances together

 

Average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are deep below 3% at the moment, reflecting worries among investors that the COVID-19 delta variant could torpedo the economy’s comeback from the pandemic.

Thirty-year rates this week are averaging 2.77%, not far from early January’s typical rate of 2.65%, which was the lowest in the 50-year history of Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.

But rates on 15-year fixed-rate loans are even cheaper and, in fact, are currently at a record low: averaging a mere 2.10%.

Let’s be clear: Because of their shorter repayment period, 15-year mortgages will give you a much higher monthly payment than a 30-year loan. But with 15-year rates at all-time lows, payments also will be as low as can be.

Here’s an example of how you can save with a 15-year mortgage right now: In early August 2019, when the average for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.20%, a $250,000 loan would have cost you $1,751 per month, or $21,012 a year.

But at the current average rate of 2.10%, that same loan will cost you $1,620 per month, or $19,440 a year

— for annual savings of close to $1,600.

15-year mortgage vs. 30-year loan

Even better, the shorter-term mortgage will cost you tens of thousands of dollars less in total interest versus a 30-year loan.

If you were to refinance a $200,000 balance at the current average rates, your monthly payment would be $1,296 with a 15-year loan, but only $819 with a 30-year mortgage — a $477 difference.

That might be a deal breaker for some, but when you consider the lifetime interest you’d save with the shorter loan term, the high monthly payment isn’t quite so bad.

The total interest you’d pay by refinancing into a 15-year mortgage at 2.10% would be more than $33,000, while you’d have to fork over about $95,000 in interest for the 30-year loan at 2.77%. That’s an extra $62,000.

Don’t forget that in addition to saving more than $62,000, you’d pay off your debt in half the time.

Why shorter mortgage terms have better rates

House and coins place on the wood table is ladder with white illustration, representing lower mortgage rates.

 

The average interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is usually lower than the average on a 30-year loan because shorter-term loans are generally seen as less risky by lenders.

However, since a 15-year mortgage requires a steeper monthly payment, the criteria needed to qualify for one is often stricter than for a 30-year loan.

You might ultimately decide the bar is too high and that you’ll have to look for other ways to cut your housing costs — maybe by shopping around to find a lower rate on your homeowners insurance.

To land a 15-year mortgage, it may be necessary to raise your income above what you currently earn, reduce your debt-to-income ratio, or pump up your credit score by 200 points or more.

How to find the best 15-year mortgage rate

credit score concept on the screen of smartphone, checking payment history and ranking in bank
To land a 15-year mortgage, it may be necessary to raise your income above what you currently earn, reduce your debt-to-income ratio, or pump up your credit score by 200 points or more.

To ensure you’ll get the best rate possible on a 15-year refi, you’ll want to check your credit score before you start looking for offers.

You’ll need a score in the “very good” (740 to 799) or “excellent” (800+) range if you want lenders to feel confident about working with you.

If you haven’t been keeping tabs on your score lately, that’s OK — you can easily check your score for free online, and get tips on how to boost it if it’s low.

Once your credit score is in good shape, you’ll want to shop around and compare quotes from at least five lenders to find the best 15-year loan offer.

Research from Freddie Mac has found that comparing five rates can save a borrower thousands of dollars over the life of a loan — so don’t jump at the first offer you get.

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

August 9, 2021 by Shawn Utley

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: 15-year mortgage, 30 year mortgage rate, Fixed Rate, Monthly Mortgage Payment, Saving Money

The End Of The Housing Boom Will Be When Mortgage Rates Rise In 2022

August 9, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

New houses under construction

The current housing boom will flatten in 2022—or possibly early 2023—when mortgage interest rates rise. There is no bubble to burst, though prices may retreat from panic-buying highs.

The boom produced some frantic buying, bids in excess of asking prices, and plenty of worry among would-be homeowners. But this has not been a bubble. A bubble is not simply rising prices, but demand not justified by fundamental economic factors. The key to the buying boom has been low mortgage rates plus a shift in desired housing type.

Mortgage rates hit what was then an all-time low of four percent in 2011, and then remained in that neighborhood until the pandemic, when they hit three percent. The decline in mortgage rates in 2020 dropped the monthly payment on a house by 12 percent, enabling many people to buy houses now rather than later.

In addition to the low mortgage rates, some people saw a future of remote work and wanted more space, which often means moving out of an apartment into a single family house. Others found urban living less fun, so they headed into the suburbs where houses are more common than apartments.

The increased demand for houses drove prices up, quite predictably. Yet the supply could not adjust as fast as demand. Home builders ramped up production in the second half of 2020, but after a few months they ran into supply constraints. Ready-to-build lots were all bought up, labor for construction was hard to find and social distancing made workers less productive. Now rising materials prices and goods on back-order squeeze profit margins. That’s how we find ourselves in the current housing boom.

But this boom is not a bubble, because the rise in prices is easily explained by the fundamentals of cheap mortgages and supply limitations. Recent housing starts are below historical averages, though that is justified by lower population growth. But with the shift from multifamily to single family housing, recent construction levels make sense. There need be no sudden drop in new construction to maintain a reasonable equilibrium.

When will the boom end? The two keys are satisfying the new demand and mortgage rates. Low mortgage rates allowed young families to buy houses earlier than they otherwise would have. It did not change the economics of buying for people who were never going to be homeowners. Instead, low mortgage rates enabled people to achieve their dreams earlier than they otherwise would have. In this sense, the strong housing market of 2020 and 2021 has been borrowing from the future. However, the shift in preferences from urban living to suburban living by people who previously could have bought houses is permanent new demand. At least, so long as they don’t become disillusioned about homeownership.

Mortgage rates are likely to rise when financial markets anticipate more inflation and action by the Federal Reserve to stem inflation. Although the Fed’s traditional tools impact short-term rates, with only small effect on mortgage rates, the new actions by the Fed impact mortgages directly. The Fed has been buying mortgages wholesale, depressing mortgage interest rates. The Fed has also been buying many treasury securities, which are often competitors to mortgages for institutional investors.

Mortgage rates are likely to rise a full percentage point by mid-2022, though this forecast exceeds the average prediction of my fellow economists. They doubt long-term interest rates will rise by a percentage point even out to December 2022. If they are right and I am wrong, then the housing market will remain strong longer.

Business leaders in the housing supply chain should enjoy their strong sales this year but not anticipate further growth in the coming years. Major capital projects must pencil out with sales back at 2019 levels.

By:

Bill Conerly

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Low interest rates, Supply and Demand, The bubble

Mortgage Rates Trend Down

July 27, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Concerns about the Delta variant, and the overall trajectory of the pandemic, are undoubtedly affecting economic growth. While the economy continues to mend, Treasury yields have decreased, and mortgage rates have followed suit. Unfortunately, many homebuyers are unable to take advantage of low rates due to low inventory and high prices.

  • Current Mortgage Rates Data Since 1971 xls

 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey®

U.S. weekly averages as of 07/22/2021
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Economic Growth, Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates

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