Eastside Real Estate Blog

Why You Should Sell Your Home in 2019

January 7, 2019 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Homeowners looking to sell should consider 2019 a prime opportunity to cash in. (Getty Images)

Few people are predicting that 2019 will be a record-breaking year for home prices.

But relatively speaking, 2019 might be the best time for you to put your house on the market. Especially if you’re on the fence about selling this year or next, Nick Ron, CEO of House Buyers of America, recommends going with the devil you know rather than the devil you don’t.

“I think it’ll be better than 2020 and 2021 – who knows what’s going to happen in those years,” Ron says.

Home price growth slowed in the second half of 2018, with fewer buyers entering the market, at least partially due to rising interest rates issued by the Federal Reserve. In 2019, consumers shouldn’t expect homebuyers to flood the market again and drive prices through the roof, but it’s also unlikely to be a crisis for home sellers.

If you bought your house in the last year or two, still love it and don’t want to part with it, go ahead and wait another five years before revisiting the thought of selling. But if you’re weighing your options to sell, considering selling this year or maybe the year after, don’t play the waiting game. Here are four reasons to sell your house in 2019.

New buyers are still entering the market. As interest rates rise, some buyers will hesitate to make an offer on a home or apply for a mortgage, so be ready to see occasional drops in buyer activity. And if your house is at the higher end of the price range in your market, you should expect less buyer interest than before. Ron notes the combination of rising mortgage rates and home prices exceeding buyers’ budgets are what has caused the slowing of homebuyer activity in recent months.

But with available housing inventory remaining low, even with rising interest rates, buyers who are ready to make a purchase will still shop for homes. The biggest wave of new homebuyers will be among millennials, who are mostly first-time buyers. In a Harris Poll survey of 2,000 U.S. adults commissioned by real estate information company Trulia, more than one-fifth of Americans between ages 18 and 34 said they plan to buy a home within the next 12 months. Already, millennials make up the largest share of homebuyers at 36 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors, which released the number in March 2018.

The bottom line: While houses may sit on the market for a few more days on average compared with 2017 when the market was white-hot, buyers remain active and it’s still possible to profit from your home sale.

Interest rates are still low-ish. Mortgage interest rates are rising, reaching 4.87 percent in November for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, per data from Freddie Mac. While rates are at their highest level since February 2011, they remain much lower than the historic high of more than 18 percent in 1981.

It’s important to keep in mind that while mortgage rates tend to mirror the Fed’s interest rate activity, mortgage rates are based on the market in that moment, your financial status and the property you’re looking to purchase.[

Just because the Fed raises rates at one meeting doesn’t mean mortgage rates will follow that exact pattern. “Not every Fed increase is passing on (to) a mortgage rate,” says John Pataky, executive vice president and chief consumer and commercial banking executive at TIAA Bank.

A sudden leap in mortgage interest rates is unlikely in 2019, though Pataky notes that you should be ready to see rates continue to climb. “We do expect over the next 12 months that mortgage rates will continue to drift higher,” he says.

If you’re looking to get the lowest interest rate possible on your next house, try to make a deal sooner rather than later.

You have high equity. Homeowners who bought during the recession or shortly after benefitted from historically low interest rates and, up until around 2015, lower home prices that were still in recovery mode. If you fall into that category, your home equity has risen with nearly every mortgage payment, each renovation you made to the house and all the other houses on the block that sold for a higher price.

The higher your equity in your home, the more you net from the sale, which can easily go toward the down payment on your next house. The larger your down payment, the better you look to lenders and the lower your interest rate will be, and the less likely you’ll need to increase monthly payments with private mortgage insurance.[

Selling in 2019 vs. 2020. If not selling your home in 2019 means putting your house on the market in 2020, the sooner option is the best one. In a survey of 100 U.S. real estate experts and economists by real estate information company Zillow, released in May, almost half expect the next recession to occur in 2020. Another 14 percent believe the recession will hold out until 2021, while 24 percent of panelists expect the recession earlier – sometime in 2019.

Whether you believe the recession is imminent or a long way off, current real estate patterns indicate a sudden upswing in activity or prices is unlikely in the near future. Real estate markets tend to operate on a cycle of their own, the length of which varies by market but can be between 10 and 16 years total and flow from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market with a period of balance in between.

“It doesn’t look like there’s anything on the horizon that’s going to cause a big spike in home prices or increase demand dramatically,” Ron says.

By Devon Thorsby, Editor, Real Estate

Economist: Seattle’s slow housing market only a blip

December 27, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

You may have heard that the big chill has suddenly hit the Seattle housing market. According to the Case-Shiller home-price index, Seattle home prices are falling faster than the rest of the country. The Emerald City was leading only a few months ago.

But we mustn’t read too much into it, says Chief Economist Matthew Gardner at Windermere Real Estate.

“In terms of overall house prices, in the last couple of months we’ve seen some significant softening,” Gardner told Seattle’s Morning News. “There are some out there that are projecting a bubble, a major correction in housing values — I don’t see it.”

According to the Case-Shiller home-price index, single-family home costs declined 1.3 percent in September, following a 1.6 percent drop the month before. What’s especially striking is how widespread the drop is; it extends from Pierce to King to Snohomish counties.

“We’ve certainly reached a peak with a lack of affordability. There must be a ratio between home prices and incomes — we’ve breached that, but it doesn’t mean that housing prices are going to correct in the downside,” he said. “Housing is not a stock. You shouldn’t look at it on its value day-to-day, month-to-month, or even year-to-year. It’s shelter, first, and an asset, second.”

Regarding the ideal type of housing that could potentially mitigate the housing crisis, Gardner would like to see far more town homes, duplexes, triplexes, ADUs, and small cottages, among others. He also believes we need to improve transit substantially and increase density around transit centers as means of making it easier for people to live somewhat near job centers, where Seattle home prices are normally higher.

Gardner says that part of the reason that prices have softened is that plenty more units are coming on the market and that people are trying to time the market. Invariably, when you get more supply, with a still reasonable demand, home price growth softens.

“I think a lot of those will trail off this month as they classically do in December. The big question is going to be is how many more units we see coming online in the spring market.”

BY MYNORTHWEST STAFF

The 4 Key Trends Home Buyers and Sellers Should Watch in 2019

December 12, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

We’re entering the home stretch of 2018, when you can actually say, “See you next year!” to someone you’ll see in just a few weeks. It’s a time to look ahead, to make new plans, to achieve new dreams.

And if those dreams include buying your own home, you should keep an eye on the ever-changing tides of the housing market. Now, markets are like the weather: You can’t entirely predict how they will act, but you canget a sense of the forces that will push things in one direction or another.

The realtor.com® economic research team analyzed a wealth of housing data to come up with a forecast of what 2019 might hold for home buyers and sellers—and it looks like both groups are going to be facing some challenges.

Here are the top four takeaways. For more information, see the full realtor.com® 2019 forecast.

1. We’ll have more homes for sale, especially luxury ones

We’ve been chronicling the super-tight inventory of homes for sale for several years now. Yes, homes have been hitting the market, but not enough to keep up with the demand. Nationwide, inventory actually hit its lowest level in recorded history last winter, but this year it finally started to recover. We’re expecting to see that inventory growth continue into next year, but not at a blockbuster rate—less than 7%.

While this is welcome news for buyers who’ve been sidelined, sellers must confront a new reality.

“More inventory for sellers means it’s not going to be as easy as it has been in past years—it means they will have to think about the competition,” says Danielle Hale, realtor.com‘s chief economist.

“It’s still going to be a very good market for sellers,” she adds, “but if they’ve had their expectations set by listening to stories of how quickly their neighbor’s home sold in 2017 or in 2018, they may have to adjust their expectations.”

Although next year’s inventory growth is expected to be modest nationwide, pricier markets will tell a different story. In these markets—which typically have strong economies (read: high-paying jobs)—most of the expected inventory growth will come from listings of luxury homes.

We’re expecting to see the biggest increases in high-end inventory in the metro areas of San Jose, CA; Seattle, WA; Worcester, MA; Boston, MA; and Nashville, TN. All of those metro markets, which may include neighboring towns, could see double-digit gains in inventory in 2019.

2. Affording a home will remain tough

It’s no secret that home sellers have been sitting pretty for the past several years. But is the tide about to change in buyers’ favor?

“In some ways, life is going to be easier for home buyers; they’ll have more options,” Hale says. “But life is also going to be more difficult for home buyers, because we expect mortgage rates to continue to increase, we expect home prices to continue to increase, so the pinch that they’re feeling from affordability is going to continue to be a pain point moving into 2019.”

Hale predicts that mortgage rates, now hovering around 5%, will reach around 5.5% by the end of 2019. That means the monthly mortgage payment on a typical home listing will be about 8% higher next year, she notes. Meanwhile, incomes are only growing about 3% on average. That double whammy is toughest on first-time home buyers, who tend to borrow the most heavily and who don’t have any equity in a current home to draw on.

3. Millennials will still dominate home buying

Just a few years ago, millennials were the new kids on the block, just barely old enough to buy their own homes. Now they’re the biggest generational group of home buyers, accounting for 45% of mortgages (compared with 17% for baby boomers and 37% for Gen Xers). Some of them are even moving on up from their starter homes.

As we mentioned above, things will be tough for those first-time buyers. But the slightly older move-up buyers will reap the benefits of both their home equity and the increased choices in the market.

And regardless of whether they’re part of that younger set starting a career or the older set that’s starting a family, “they’re going to be more price-conscious than any other generation,” says Ali Wolf, director of economic research at Meyers Research.

That’s because they typically are still carrying student debt and want to be able to spend on experiences, like travel. That takes away from the funds they can put aside for a down payment, or a monthly mortgage payment.

“They want to maintain a certain lifestyle, but they still see the value in owning a home,” Wolf says.

So they might compromise on distance from an urban center, or certain amenities, or space—70% of millennial homeowners own a residence that’s less than 2,000 square feet, Wolf notes.

There’s plenty of time to expand those portfolios, though, as millennials’ housing reign is just beginning: This group is likely to make up the largest share of home buyers for the next decade. The year 2020 is projected to be the peak for millennial home buying—the bulk of them will be age 30.

4. The new tax law is still a wild card

At the time of last year’s forecast, the GOP’s proposed revision of the tax code was still being batted around Congress. While there was talk that it might discourage people from buying a home, no one really knew how it might affect the real-estate market.

This year … well, we still don’t really know. That’s because most taxpayers won’t be filing taxes under the new law until April 2019. And while some people might have a savvy tax adviser giving them a better idea of what’s in store, for many, the reality check will come in the form of a bigger tax bill—or a bigger refund.

Renters are likely to have lower tax bills, but might not be tempted to buy while affordability remains a challenge, and with the new, increased standard deduction reducing the appeal of the homeowner’s mortgage-interest deduction.

“I think the new tax plan will affect mostly homeowners and home buyers in the upper parts of the distribution,” says Andrew Hanson, associate professor of economics at Marquette University in Milwaukee, WI. “Those who either own or are buying higher-priced homes are going to pay a lot more.”

Sellers of those pricier homes will also take a hit, as buyers anticipating bigger tax bills won’t be as willing to pony up for a high list price.

The biggest change resulting from the new tax law, Hanson predicts, will be in mortgages, since people will be less inclined to take out large mortgages.

“If anyone is going to be upset about the tax plan, it’ll be mortgage bankers,” he says.

—Allison Underhill contributed to this report.

By Cicely Wedgeworth

Nearly 1 in 7 homes in Seattle now worth at least $1 million

November 19, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

This $2,748,000 home has five bedrooms four baths four fireplaces and four garage spaces. It was originally built in 1938 but has just gone through construction (image: Joshua Lewis)

SEATTLE — A growing number Seattleites can consider themselves as million-dollar homeowners as housing prices continue to climb in the region.

Seattle is now ranks 10th among U.S. metro areas for percentage of homes worth $1 million or more, according to a newly-released study by Trulia. In 2018, 13.3 percent of all homes in the city are worth at least seven figures, up from 11.8 percent last year. The median house price stands at just under $565,000, Trulia says.

We’re still a far cry from the Bay Area though, where 81 percent of homes in San Francisco and 70 percent of homes in San Jose are worth $1 million or more. Oakland checks in third at 30.7 percent, Truila says. Seattle’s 13.3 percent just a little behind Los Angeles at 13.9 percent.

And Seattle’s million dollar homes aren’t just clumped in one or two spots. Trulia found out of the city’s 95 neighborhoods, 10 of them are classified as “million dollar neighborhoods” where more than half the homes are worth $1 million or more.

But Seattle’s not the only city in the region with million dollar homes. Trulia finds that Bellevue has the highest percentage in the region of Million Dollar Neighborhoods. Of the 23 Bellevue neighborhoods identified by Trulia, nine are over the $1 million mark– three more than just two years ago. That’s 39 percent of all the city’s neighborhoods.

Other cities noted with at least one million-dollar neighborhood: Kirkland (5 out of 15), and Shoreline (2 out of 14). San Francisco, as mentioned, is pretty much million dollar city with 87 out of 102 neighborhoods having 50 percent or more million dollar homes.

Nationally, the share of homes worth $1 million or more has doubled since 2012 from 1.5 percent of all homes to 3.6 percent today.

American Homeownership Increases Again as Housing Market Looks for Balance

November 7, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

More Americans became homeowners in the summer months, fresh evidence of a housing market that’s finding some stability after several rocky years.

The national homeownership rate was 64.4% in the third quarter, the Census Bureau said Tuesday. That’s a half-percentage point higher than a year ago.

A look at the rate of homeownership since 2004. Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

After touching an all-time high of 69.1% in 2004 as the housing bubble inflated, the homeownership rate bottomed out at 62.9% in 2016 as waves of Americans lost their homes or sold under duress. At the same time, many Americans who would ordinarily become buyers were locked out of the market by stringent lending rules, a lack of affordable inventory and a challenging economic backdrop.

All that has made the post-crisis housing market not just less accessible, but less dynamic. It’s possible the moderation in home prices over the course of 2018, which some analysts believe came from would-be buyers pushing back against hefty price gains, helped many of them finally become owners.

The homeownership rate can be controversial. Some analysts believe that government policies that helped enable ownership more broadly were responsible for the housing crisis, although many others believe there’s blame to go around.

Still, the meager recovery to this point puts the homeownership rate only back to 1995 levels, well before the run-up to the bubble. That suggests it may be possible for many more Americans to become owners, if housing market conditions ease further. The vacancy rate for owners was just 1.5% for the second month in a row, tighter than the 1.6% it averaged throughout 2017.

By Andrea Riquier

To PMI or Not to PMI

November 2, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

New Chinese Tariffs to Raise Renovation Costs. Should You Postpone your Reno?

October 30, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

We talked last month about the potential impact of new Chinese tariffs on the real estate industry, and now there’s another issue that could slow down an important associated industry. “New Chinese tariffs are about to make your home renovation more expensive,” said CNBC.

Renovation demand has been growing as homeowners tap their home equity to make updates and improvements. “This year, the National Association of Home Builders’ Remodeling Market Index (RMI) revealed that in the fourth quarter of 2017, the RMI reached 60 for the second time since 2001,” said HousingWire. “Although the demand for home renovation has continued to increase in 2018, recently imposed tariffs are expected to reduce affordability for homeowners seeking renovations.”

So, could the higher costs associated with renos be enough to slow their roll? To be clear, the first round of new Chinese tariffs took effect on September 24, hitting “about $10 billion worth of Chinese products exclusive to homebuilding and remodeling, according to the National Association of Home Builders,” said CNBC. The tariff is expected to rise “to 25 percent by the end of the year. That would be equivalent to a $2.5 billion tax increase on the industry.”

That’s putting pressure on an industry that has been thriving even under a labor shortage, and that could bend to uncomfortable levels under higher materials costs. In addition, “Clients and contractors are having to set contracts with escalation clauses for projects that are being scheduled for six months from now, largely because we’re not sure how far prices are going to go north,” Washington, D.C.-based contractor Justin Sullivan told CNBC.

So, if you were getting ready to add a bathroom, redo your kitchen, or create a killer outdoor area, should you proceed? That all depends.

“Trump’s trade tariffs will drive up the cost of some home renovations, so you might need to speed up your plans to finish a remodel before the supply chain impact hits you directly,” said GOBankingRates. “On the other hand, some costs are already up, so it might be worth postponing your renovation until prices stabilize.”

Specifically, they recommend moving forward with new kitchens and bathrooms. “If you’ve got a new kitchen or bathroom in mind, don’t wait. The new tariffs aimed at Chinese imports will raise the prices for tile used in bathrooms and kitchen backsplashes, cabinets, wallboards and floorboards, light fixtures, and heating and cooling equipment.”

Popular countertop materials like quartz are especially tenuous, facing a “double whammy,” with the U.S. “imposing import duties on quartz, which an investigation found was being illegally ‘dumped’ into the U.S. by Chinese exporters, capitalizing on subsidies from the Chinese government. Quartz prices are already rising and will likely continue to do so,” they said.

Nonetheless, updated kitchens and bathrooms are among the most-wanted features in a new home, so if you’re renovating to sell now or even a few years into the future, by all means, don’t change those plans. GOBankingRates also recommends moving quickly if you want to “convert a basement or mudroom into a laundry room.”

As for what projects to skip until costs head back down? Adding a room or garage can wait. “Some of the first tariffs President Trump imposed were on Canadian lumber, charging that Canadian companies were being unfairly subsidized by their government,” they said. “Canadian lumber prices have also risen in response to a supply decline due to tree disease and slower transportation. Wait for lumber prices to stabilize before you build a new home, add a room, add a garage, convert a basement into an in-law unit.”

WRITTEN BY JAYMI NACIRI

Conditions are perfect for the real estate market in Seattle to cool some

October 23, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

October will be the last month with good inventory — so now’s as good a time as any to buy

Summer is over, but the real estate market is just catching up.

The heyday for the market is typically between May and October, when the sunshine makes for nice pictures and easy open houses. Which means that the final month is here to take advantage of the housing market before the fall drop-off.

Slowing real estate might let us catch our breath — or knock the wind out of us

October 18, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Last year Seattle ranked first in a widely watched report on markets with an strong outlook for real estate. This year it’s not in the top 10. (Greg Gilbert / The Seattle Times)

If you read my colleague Mike Rosenberg, you already know that segments of the Seattle real-estate market are slowing.

We have an apartment glut thanks to heavy investment in multifamily housing coming out of the Great Recession. Sales and inventory numbers for homes in King County are back to 2012 levels. Prices are dropping many places after record leaps in recent years.

Last week came further evidence: For the first time in about a decade, Seattle wasn’t among the top 10 markets for the coming year in the “Emerging Trends in Real Estate” report by the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Last year, we were No. 1.

The report focuses on the Seattle-Bellevue area, setting Tacoma (No. 53) out separately. And it doesn’t directly correlate with livability. Rather, it assesses investment and development trends, and for several years has chronicled the rise of high-quality urban centers.

Many people will see this as all good news, a pause from explosive growth that has also been blamed for lower affordability, rising inequality and social ills. I would add that markets go down as well as up, and every swing creates winners and losers.

Still, while Seattle’s growth isn’t stopping, going from the equivalent of 90 miles per hour to 50 would be felt, and in some unpleasant ways, too.

“Emerging Trends” is the gold standard in real-estate forecasts, based on interviews and surveys of hundreds of leading developers, investors and lenders. It provides a deep analysis of the outlook for residential, retail, office, hotel and industrial properties, as well as the wider economic environment.

For next year, the top overall markets according to the ULI study are Dallas-Fort Worth, Brooklyn, Raleigh-Durham, Orlando, Nashville, Austin, Boston, Denver, Charlotte and Tampa-St. Petersburg.

At No. 16, Seattle still shows a decent outlook among the 79 markets surveyed. We rank No. 20 in homebuilding prospects. And second, behind Boston, in local market attractiveness for investors. Office demand is expected to continue doing well in the central business district. Being No. 1 isn’t everything. I’d take Seattle over almost any city among the top 10. But Seattle dropping off might mark an inflection point — emphasis on “might.”

The report also offers this caution about Seattle’s drop: “Seattle is still viewed as an attractive place in which to invest, but did media coverage of potential new supply being delivered and increased regulatory discussions sway the opinion of survey respondents?”

(I’d say the news coverage reflected real events and trends.)

Seattle’s population is expected to keep growing, next year at twice the national rate. Hard as it is to process, Seattle also gets relatively good marks for housing affordability within the context of the Pacific Coast (Tacoma does even better). Demand remains strong for distribution space, too. The report points to a local economy operating near capacity (e.g. employment) as a constraint on real-estate investment next year.

“This is evidenced by the comments from focus group participants in Seattle and Portland that attracting qualified labor is getting more difficult and could be hurting employment growth,” it reads. The unemployment rate for Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue was 3.6 percent in August. Assuming the larger economic climate is stable, we can expect Seattle to go from “hot” to “warm.” Even so, a pullback in construction would be felt, and not just by speculators.

Being the crane capital of America was part of the enormous construction boom during this expansion. It put hundreds of millions of dollars into the city treasury. This has helped finance low-income housing and social services.

On the other hand, the economy is never static. Risks abound nationally and internationally, from trade battles and asset bubbles to new vulnerability in the banking sector. Geopolitical instability is rising. So are interest rates.

The past week’s wobbly stock market was centered in nervousness about potential inflation — enough at least to cut into profit margins. Popular tech stocks, including Amazon, were among the shares roughed up. Nobody has repealed the business cycle, so this second-longest expansion in modern American history shouldn’t be taken for granted. A veteran asset manager quoted in “Emerging Trends” says, “2019 will be a turning-point year. I think about the capital markets correction that is coming. We have been used to easy money and very low rates for so long. Now is the time to harvest, to hedge, to be cautious.”

Seattle specifically has yet to see how a “separate, equal” HQ2 — yet to be announced — will affect it. Those effects could pinball to small-businesses, city tax revenues, vendors and even charitable giving, as well as hiring at the city’s largest employer. The metro area would also be hurt by a stock market correction — not only in terms of lost wealth, but potential job cutbacks by companies in response. But the stomach-knot scenarios might not happen. What we know is that real estate is slowing. This boom has remade Seattle more dramatically than almost any since the Great Fire. It’s been a lightning rod for criticism, and not just from the social-justice warriors.

Too many classic Seattle three-story brick apartment buildings have been lost, diminishing lower-rent units for renters. Too many useful commercial buildings have been demolished for towers, annihilating affordable retail space and the human-scale delights of the city. Add in straight-up skyscrapers with no setbacks and little distance between them, plus loss of views toward the Space Needle.

I’ve watched these changes over a decade and wondered: Why does this happen in a supposedly progressive city?

Some will pour out corruption conspiracy theories. My guess about what happened is a combination of inattention to protection and design standards; addiction to construction fees; loss of imagination among architects, and political division — all happening as this firehose of demand came at us with great suddenness. On the other hand, the real-estate boom has been pretty good to Seattle, and not only in terms of tax revenues.

On the commercial side, it’s been driven by demand from some of the top companies offering some of the best jobs. We’re not cursed by the desert of huge surface parking lots or store fronts emptied out by changing consumer patterns and online competition. Speculation is an element in rising housing prices, but demand was the big driver. Real estate and construction are significant employers.

In the America as it is, rather than what I might wish it to be, this is a gift horse that shouldn’t require obsessing over its dental work. In the many left-behind localities — places without the bother of an Amazon headquarters — inequality and opportunity are worse than here and future prospects are dim. These include some of the once-greatest American cities.

Seattle has been lucky, and made its luck. Now we’ll see whether what’s happening in real estate is a natural downshifting or something more.

Jon Talton

The Seattle Times

Why You Should Sell Your Home in 2019

Economist: Seattle’s slow housing market only a blip

The 4 Key Trends Home Buyers and Sellers Should Watch in 2019

1. We’ll have more homes for sale, especially luxury ones

2. Affording a home will remain tough

3. Millennials will still dominate home buying

4. The new tax law is still a wild card

New Chinese Tariffs to Raise Renovation Costs. Should You Postpone your Reno?

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Economist: Seattle’s slow housing market only a blip