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3 Reasons to Invest in Single-Family Rentals

February 21, 2019 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

A rental investment can be a safe haven in a volatile market.


With high demand and low supply, the housing market should remain strong in 2019

FEW PEOPLE TALK WITH their financial advisors about alternative investments like purchasing a property, but real estate may be a good strategy this year. It’s one that more high net worth investors seem to be employing to cope with market volatility.

A December 2018 survey from Millennium Trust Company found an increasing preference for alternative investments, including real estate. Among those surveyed who held real estate, 73 percent favored single-family rentals.

Robert Mulcahy, senior vice president of production and strategic initiatives at Angel Oak Prime Bridge in Atlanta, says a rental property investment is a great strategy for any investor, regardless of net worth. The market gyrations of 2018 and the outlook for real estate in the year ahead are compelling reasons to examine the benefits of owning a rental property.

“Since markets don’t exist in a vacuum, there tends to be a beta between the rental market and the stock market,” says Jason Haber, a real estate agent at Warburg Realty Partnership in New York. The difference, he says, is volatility.

“The rental market is reactionary to the general direction of the stock market,” Haber says, meaning that daily swings in stock prices don’t effect real estate investors like equity investors. “Real estate investments provide for more stability, and many markets can outperform the Dow and S&P 500.”

That may be music to the ears of volatility-weary investors. Here are three reasons why now is the perfect time to consider a property investment:

  • The 2019 outlook is strong.
  • Housing is bolstered by low unemployment.
  • Renter profiles are shifting.

The 2019 Outlook Is Strong

Quinn Palomino, co-founder and principal at Virtua Partners in San Diego, is optimistic about the outlook for leasing.

“Demand is high and supply is still constrained, particularly for entry-level housing,” she says. “We anticipate rent increases will outpace the overall commercial real estate market, landing in the 5 to 7 percent range.”

Palomino says these rentals are positioned to outperform stocks in 2019, as the market reacts to a slowdown in economic growth and recession fears. She cites the Great Recession, in which “single-family rentals did not have a down year in occupancy or rental rates.”

Housing Is Bolstered by Low Unemployment

Haber says that while the fundamentals of individual rental markets differ, two things are driving momentum: employment and interest rates.

“Generally speaking, a low unemployment environment translates into a stronger housing market,” Haber says. “Right now, we have both low unemployment and low interest rates. This dynamic has kept the housing market healthy.”

Additional rate hikes could give the single-family rental market an additional boost, says Nick Giovacchini, director of client services at AlphaFlow in San Francisco.

“With the Fed’s expectation of two more rate hikes this year, mortgage rates should rise once again,” he says. “(This) could potentially price some newer home buyers out of the market and keep them focused on rentals.”

Renter Profiles are Shifting

While low interest rates and job growth are leaving a positive mark on housing, Kevin Sneddon, founder and managing partner of the private client team at Compass in New York, says there’s a larger dynamic to consider.

“Renting single-family homes has become a new norm,” Sneddon says. He identifies three specific renter profiles that are fueling the new normal in the housing market.

The first is renters who can’t afford to buy because they lack a down payment on a mortgage. The second is those who don’t want to buy because they want flexibility. And the third group includes those who choose not to buy because they feel that real estate values will soften in the future.

Palomino says it’s largely millennials who are the main driving factor. “Millennials don’t have the same attachment to homeownership as preceding generations, are more transient and are overburdened with debt,” she says. “Yet, as millennial couples have children, they want to move out of the apartment and into a house with a backyard and garage.”[ 

It’s not just the younger crowd, however, who is on the hunt for homes to rent.

“As boomers are moving out of their previous homes, many are looking to downsize, but have less cash than expected,” Giovacchini says. As a result, they “may have to rent rather than purchase a new home.”

Those set on steering the course of single-family rental homes can benefit from doing their homework.

“The single-family rental market needs to be analyzed on a local level,” says Janine Yorio, CEO of Compound in New York. “We’ve seen tremendous discrepancies in rental growth and price appreciations across different locales.”

The biggest risk, she says, is the cyclical nature of real estate. Yorio makes a case for investing in multifamily properties through a real estate investment trust.

“Single-family investments at the individual level are far more risky than diversified REITs,” she says. “An owner needs to be ready for prolonged periods of vacancy, capital improvement requirements and dealing directly with problematic tenants.”

Yorio also says not all single-family residential investments are created equal: “It’s important to pay attention to more than just the initial rental yield or cap rate and pay attention to the near- and medium-term cash flow at the property level, taking into account required repairs and maintenance.”

There are also subtle differences in investing in a townhouse versus a single-family home. Town homes can carry fewer cost considerations regarding maintenance, repairs and landscaping if those expenses are handled by a homeowner’s or condo association.

Sneddon says the target tenant profile matters, as does your exit strategy. Most important, he says, is the likelihood that the asset will increase in value over time.

“Things like location, property condition, property style, local job growth, etc. are important factors to consider when selecting which single-family rentals to acquire,” he says.

Investors shouldn’t expect renting a home to be a passive investment.

“There’s a lot of work in being a landlord,” Yorio says. But outsourcing leasing or property management to a trusted team can ease the burden. 

By Rebecca Lake, Contributor


Filed Under: Rental Investments Tagged With: Baby Boomers, homeownership, Interest Rates, Millennials

Late Boomers: How Seniors are Affecting the Housing Market

September 17, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

The baby boomers are entering their golden years and are poised to become the largest generation of retirees in the country’s history. Through their sheer numbers, boomers have impacted the nation’s economic trends. Now, as more of them enter their retirement years, this generation’s housing preferences will help determine the housing options available to younger people entering the market.

Not only are baby boomers the largest generation, but they also have different lifestyle preferences than previous generations. Baby boomers are working longer and delaying the home downsizing many have been expecting. While some observers think baby boomers are contributing to the inventory crunch by staying in place, others believe boomers are holding on to their homes to time the market and that a massive sell-off is on the horizon.

To better understand this demographic group, Trulia took a close look at the housing situation of seniors 65 and over now and a decade ago, as well as how senior households stack up in different metros. Of course, not all boomers are seniors yet—we define baby boomers as individuals born between 1945 and 1964, making them between 54 and 73 this year. However, we focus on changes in senior housing preferences over the last decade to offer insight into how boomers, who are starting to become seniors en masse, differ in their housing choices compared to previous generations.

We found that:

  • Senior households are delaying downsizing. They’re working longer and their kids are living with them more often compared with seniors a decade ago.
  • Senior households with no younger generations living with them—which include empty nesters— on average have two more bedrooms than people in their homes. Households under 65 on average only have one extra bedroom.
  • Places where housing inventory is most needed—the most unaffordable metros in the nation—aren’t the places where seniors are holding onto inventory. Like the rest of the population, seniors rent in these places at much higher rates and also have younger generations living with them more often. Unless they kick out the kids, they won’t be able to downsize.
  • Metros that have the most senior households that could potentially downsize—that is, those households that own their single family home and have no younger generations living with them—are among the most affordable in the nation. That may be evidence that boomers holding onto their homes is not driving up prices.

Delayed Gratification

Aging boomers are staying in place longer. As households move into their retirement years, some of them are downsizing—moving from owning to renting and from single family to multifamily homes. But, on average, boomers are staying in place longer than previous generations. Some observers worry they are taking up valuable home inventory in high-demand markets that would otherwise be snapped up by younger homebuyers. Of senior households, 83.4% live by themselves, with no younger generations. On average, this group has two more bedrooms than people living in the house—perhaps representing empty nesters whose kids have since moved out. That compares with just one extra bedroom for households under 65.

Characteristics of Senior Households
% of Senior Households 2005 2016
In Labor Force 15.9% 19.3%
Living Alone 85.2% 83.4%
Living with Younger Generation(s) 14.4% 16.1%

 

Baby boomers are staying in place longer because the life events that might cause them to downsize are being delayed. Seniors in recent years have adopted significantly different lifestyles than seniors even a decade ago. For one, they’re working longer. The proportion of household heads 65 and over who are still in the labor force rose to 19.3% in 2016 from 15.9% in 2005. What’s more, the kids are moving out later. Senior households living alone represented 83.4% in 2016, ticking down from 85.2% in 2005. In 2016, 16.1% of senior households had younger generations living with them, up from 14.4% in 2005. These factors mean senior households aren’t considering downsized housing options until later in life. In 2005, more senior households were moving into multifamily than single family housing by age 75. In 2016, this inflection point had shifted to age 80.

Senior Living by Metro

The areas where home supply is limited and affordability is low might appreciate an infusion of inventory from downsizing seniors. However, when looking at the nation’s top 100 metros, we don’t see evidence that boomers holding on to inventory is eroding affordability. Like the general population, seniors in expensive and unaffordable metros rent at much higher rates. Unaffordability also translates to higher levels of multigenerational living. The correlation between unaffordability and the percentage of senior households that could potentially downsize—those that live by themselves and own a single family home—is stark. The higher the income required to purchase the median home, the lower the proportion of senior households that could downsize (with a correlation coefficient of -0.73).

The metros with the highest portion of senior households in a position to downsize are in more affordable metros, including Knoxville, Tenn., Colorado Springs, Colo., and Dayton, Ohio. However, even in these metros, inventory has fallen steadily for the past several years. In Knoxville, inventory decreased 12.4% year over year during the second quarter of 2018, rounding out 12 straight quarters of falling inventory. With this prolonged inventory drought across the nation, these metros may very well welcome an increase in boomers listing their homes.

Power in Numbers

Although seniors appear to be delaying downsizing until later in life, as a group, households 65 and over are still downsizing at roughly the same rate as in years past—which is to say not that often. In 2016, 5.5% of households 65 and over moved, pretty evenly split between moves to single family (2.7%) and multifamily (2.4%) homes. In 2005, these percentages were virtually the same, with 5.5% of senior households moving, including 2.5% into single family and 2.5% into multifamily homes.

Still, because the boomer generation is so much larger than previous generations, that 5.5% moving rate translates into very different raw numbers across the years. There were about 7 million more senior households in 2016 than 2005, meaning 386,000 more senior households moved in 2016.

Of course, the ability of senior households to downsize depends on the availability of homes to downsize into. The acute shortage in starter home inventory can make it difficult for retirees to move to smaller homes. Not only are seniors not responsible for making inventory-scarce metros unaffordable, they’re feeling the inventory pinch themselves. Gen X-ers and millennials, especially in expensive coastal metros, are going to need more than downsizing boomers to alleviate the inventory crunch they are facing.

Methodology

We used 2005 and 2016 5-Year American Community Survey data for labor rates, household generation composition, moving rates, unit structure type, number of bedrooms, and tenure. Our analysis only looks at households that are not in “group quarters”, which would include retirement homes and nursing facilities. This means that our downsizing estimates are likely understated. Affordability is based on our inventory metrics from the second quarter of 2018, defined as the share of the median income needed to purchase the median priced home.

By Alexandra Lee

Filed Under: A little bit of Trivia, Baby Boomers, Education, First Time Homeowner, Home Value, Homeownership, Housing Market, Issaquah Lifestyle Blog, Issaquah Real Estate, Larry and Kathy Reichle, Retirement Tagged With: Baby Boomers, Home ownership, Home Trends, Housing Market, Trending Topics

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