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The Cost Of Purchasing A Home In The U.S. Increased 55% Last Year. But It’s Still A Great Time To Buy A House For These Five Reasons

May 31, 2022 by Amy Leave a Comment

I’ve always been all-in on homeownership. Yet, for the first time in two decades since the beginning of the pandemic, I haven’t owned a home.

All of which got me thinking: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) just issued a report calculating that the cost of purchasing a house in the U.S. has increased 55% year over year since 2021 after factoring in home value appreciation, tax re-assessments, and mortgage rate increases.

So, from a seller’s standpoint did I just miss out on the frothiest bull housing market in decades?

Home Sales Increase Slightly As Prices Drop

The pandemically-fueled housing market is breaking records and making homeowners fortunes.

In two senses the answer, unfortunately, is yes.

The pandemically-fueled housing boom since 2020 as a function of appreciation over time is unprecedented against any other historical financial metric, including the recent Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P run ups.

That percentage gain also translates directly into higher appraised home values, which means more equity in sellers’ pockets when they decide it’s time to move. Ergo in sum, homeowners have seen a better return on their real estate investments over a shorter period of time since 2020 than even the pre-Great Recession housing bubble.

The good news for people like me who’ve either rented by choice, been priced out of the current market by the math, or sat on the real estate sidelines for other personal reasons over the past two years, however, is that now is still a great time to buy a home for several reasons under the right circumstances.

UK Daily Life 2021

It’s no longer just a seller’s market.

First and foremost, the COVID housing froth finally is cooling off.

Listings are up along with new housing starts, closings are down, and the days of all cash, waive-all-contingencies bidding wars are waning. So, excluding places like San Francisco or Manhattan where home prices had reached the point of almost stupid years ago, buyers in most markets already are on the back side of the pandemic peak.

“The overheated market of 2021 is already transitioning toward a less frantic landscape in response to several factors, and housing’s fundamentals are already shifting from the early days of the pandemic,” says George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research at Realtor.com. “Builders have ramped up the pace of construction and more new homes are hitting the market. In addition, many homeowners who delayed their plans during the pandemic are ready to move forward with their lives so we’re already seeing an increase in the number of new listings—a sign of improving supply in existing homes. This boost in inventory, coupled with higher mortgage rates, inevitably is going to put downward pressure on the frenetic price growth we have experienced over the past year. That’s good news for buyers who have time on their side since the real estate landscape over the next 8-12 months is likely to shift away from a seller’s only market.”

The 25-44 year old population is up about 50% in the past decade in the Logan Circle/Shaw neighborhoods.

Millennials are now the largest demographic cohort in the U.S. and the largest pool of potential.

Many would-be home buyers, especially Millennials without kids, also have been stashing cash in lieu of eating out and taking vacations since the beginning of the pandemic, resulting in a COVID-induced nest egg alternatively deployable for down payments, closing costs, moving, and renovations—which often are the primary financial impediments to purchasing a home in the first place.

Perhaps most importantly, almost every expert I’ve spoken with agrees that the current housing boom isn’t a “bubble” a la 2007. Housing’s core fundamentals are strong—meaning the basics of supply and demand as well as the mortgages and household balance sheets upon which those foundations are based aren’t about to shatter from a glass house rock out of nowhere any time soon.

Here are five other specific reasons why now is a great time to buy a home.
Lake Boca Raton and city skyline with reflections at sunset

Housing prices aren’t going down any time soon especially in places like South Florida.

Prices Aren’t Going Down

No matter who you talk to, it’s widely agreed that U.S. home values across the board aren’t dropping any time soon. This is due primarily to a single-family housing supply crisis and demographic shifts that have been building for years. So even while homes prices might seem inflated right now by the numbers, they aren’t artificially elevated like they were back in in 2005.

“A couple of factors are likely to keep pressure on prices for the foreseeable future,” says Realtor.com’s Ratiu. “The first one is demographics. Millennials are the largest cohort in the U.S., are embracing homeownership, and eager to use real estate as a foundation for financial and economic growth. With over 4.5 million Millennials turning 30 over the next few years, housing demand will remain robust. At the same time, we started 2022 in the wake of over a decade of under-building. Based on Realtor.com’s calculations, we are short 5.8 million new single-family homes across the country which will sustain demand and prices.”

That means buying a home now is still a solid, low risk money parking strategy, especially when the non-financial benefits of homeownership are taken into account like being the master of your destiny instead of a landlord’s and being able to renovate or build an addition if you end up working from home for the rest of your life.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks At ″Fed Listens″ Event

Despite the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hikes residential mortgage rates are still 

Mortgage Rates

In 1981, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to put the breaks on inflation pushed 30-year fixed mortgage rates to an all-time high of 18.63%. So, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary tightening and interest rate increases (the current 30-year mortgage rate according to Bankrate is 5.46%)—and the possibility of subsequent ones to come later this year—mortgage interest rates overall remain historically low.

While the days of crazy cheap money are temporarily over and paying down a typical mortgage has jumped by $633/month for a median priced home, the historical price of entry to purchase a house in the U.S. is still lower than it’s been on average for the past 50 years.
New Home Construction At The Highest Level In 17 Years

The mortgage interest tax deduction is still one of the best financial benefits of homeownership. 

Taxes

For first time homebuyers who’ve been renting for years, homeownership comes with a ton of perks.

One of the more mundane yet financially profound of them is the mortgage income tax deduction, which the National Association of Realtors has masterfully lobbied to keep in the U.S. tax code for decades. This allows for up to 100% of the interest you pay on your mortgage to be deducted from your gross income in addition to the other deductions for which you are eligible like the standard personal deduction and deducting for home office expenses before your final tax liability in any given year is calculated.

Depending on the price of your home and the size of your mortgage, these aren’t small numbers, especially as interest rates rise. Some years in some houses, particularly in 2005 when I bought a home at an 8%+ rate, my mortgage interest deduction was well into the $20,000 range—which for a writer is no small nut to be able to write down off of my total earned income (in some years the mortgage interest deduction alone brought me down into an entirely different tax bracket).

In addition, after two years the profits from selling your house assuming it’s your primary residence aren’t taxed by capital gains which means more net money into your pocket after closing costs.

Rents Are Increasing Too

The pandemically-fueled home price increases in the U.S. over the past two years have been widely reported in the media, yet far less covered has been the fact that residential rents have been rising too. Rents in Boise, ID, for example, have increased over 13% since the beginning of the pandemic, almost double that of inflation as a whole. In Miami according to some estimates they’re up over 31%.

So for home buyers weighing the opportunity costs of continuing to rent and throwing their money away versus getting into the homeownership game and building long-term wealth, the logic isn’t as clear as it’s been in the past when rents typically have dropped asymmetrically relative to home price increases in a similar fashion to investors fleeing stock markets in favor of government backed bonds.

Landlords, and the rent increases they impose, also aren’t tied to the federal funds rate like banks and mortgage lenders, so when it comes to owning a home there’s at least some certainty that homeownership inflation will remain linked long-term to well-intended monetary policy rather than the whims of Wall Street and private equity firms.
Bay Area Feels The Effects Of Plunging Housing Market

Real estate is still one of the best wealth building strategies long term. 

Wealth Building

No matter how you slice the numbers, long-term homeownership is still one of the most predictable, risk-manageable wealth building strategies compared with other ways of deploying one’s income for a return on investment. So compared with renting, even at today’s 5.46% mortgage rates, building equity in a house instead of renting is still a hard logic to argue with—especially if home prices remain strong.

“Inflation and its upward pressure on price levels is less like the tide and more akin to climate change and the impact it has had on rising ocean levels,” says Realtor.com’s Ratiu. “Once prices reach a higher watermark, they are likely to only move up from there. Consider that in 1972, the median value of a new home in the U.S. was $29,200. By 1992, median price reached $126,000, and it further advanced to $190,100 in 2002. During the mid-2000s housing boom, median prices peaked at $257,400. The housing bust of 2008 saw median new home values decline to $208,400. However, the ensuing recovery pushed prices to $327,100 by the fourth quarter of 2019, and the shift brought about by the pandemic only accelerated the trajectory. Based on Census data, the first quarter of 2022 saw median prices above $428,000 for new homes. Meanwhile, hampered by a significant shortage of supply, median prices for existing homes also reached new records, hitting $425,000. While the historical values are not adjusted for inflation, housing remains one of the most predictable ways to build wealth over time.”
Celebs' mansions in Miami, United States on February 09, 2001.

Real estate—still a safe bet. Especially in markets like Miami. 

What all of this means for the U.S. housing market writ large is good news, says Craig Studnicky, founder of Miami-based real estate brokerage RelatedISG.

“The pandemic set off a worldwide frenzy for single-family homes. In the early days of COVID, people started to realize that it was easier to manage social distancing in a house where you typically have more space and you didn’t have to share an elevator or lobby with your neighbors. People then discovered the joy of owning a house because of the space and privacy it offers. In addition, suddenly people could work remotely and had the freedom to live anywhere, so they wanted to move to places like South Florida where the weather is great all year round. Mortgage rates also hit historic lows which helped accelerate the home buying frenzy, especially as the Millennial generation became of homebuying age. Demand quickly started to outstrip supply, sending prices spiraling. And historically when prices go up to these levels, they rarely come down and the widespread housing supply shock we’re currently experiencing won’t be resolved anywhere overnight. Houses have become a gold standard for investments and that’s not changing anytime soon on Wall Street or Main Street.”
By:
Peter Lane Taylor

Filed Under: Eastside Real Estate Blog, Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Home Buying, Home Prices, homeownership, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Taxes

‘The Fever Has Broken’: Is the Housing Market Frenzy Really Going To Cool Off This Fall?

October 6, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

 

Over the next few weeks and months, the long-overheated U.S. housing market is expected to continue to cool off in the bracing chill of autumn.

After a wild year of unprecedented price increases, a worsening shortage of homes for sale, and cutthroat bidding wars where offers six figures over the ask price weren’t uncommon, conditions are finally normalizing. More homes are expected to go up for sale this season just as many would-be buyers are either priced out or so fed up after losing out on home after home that they’re dropping out of the running.

“The fever in the housing market has broken,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of building consultancy Zonda. “There have been buyers that have just been beat down for the last six months—and after losing so many homes and going through the emotional roller coaster, they’ve decided to stop searching for now. There are more homes on the market than there were six months ago.”

During the COVID-19 pandemic, record-low mortgage interest rates, below 3%, helped many homebuyers to absorb prices that reached all-time highs in the spring and summer. But prices rose so high so quickly that even bargain mortgage rates couldn’t offset them enough to give buyers some needed financial relief.

With more folks sidelined, some of the steam has been let out of the market. Prices aren’t rising by as much as competition is down and homes are taking a little longer to sell, giving buyers some breathing room.

In September, the rate of year-over-year growth was halved, to 8.6%, down from its peak of 17.2% in April, according to Realtor.com® data. This means the median list price of a home grew half as fast as in the spring. Homes also took a bit longer to sell, at about 43 days. While that’s down 11 days from the same month last year and 22 days from 2019, it’s up 6 days from June.

“Things are settling down. There will still be some multiple offers, but it will be less tense,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®. He expects the days of homes receiving 20 to 30 offers are becoming a thing of the past. “And some homes are lingering on the market for a week or two without an offer.”

This fall, buyers may once again be able to include contingencies in their offers, such as requiring home inspections and appraisals, and still win out bidding wars. They may even—gasp—get homes at the list price.

All-cash offers could also dip if buyers don’t need to cash out their savings, stocks, and cryptocurrency stashes to stand out from the competition.

“It’s not like the market is soft,” says Yun. “It’s just moving away from that extreme frenzy.”

The changes in the housing market may be coinciding with the seasonal slowdown. Typically, competition is fierce in the summer as families battle over larger homes in the suburbs, hoping to secure residences and settle in before the kids start school. Then the market slows down with less competition for the smaller homes that traditionally go up for sale.

Yun expects annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, around 5%, versus the double-digit price hikes that reigned earlier in the year. But this may not be true for every home in every part of the country.

“If you want a reasonably priced home in a desirable area, be ready to still face stiff competition,” says Zonda’s Wolf.

Will home prices fall?

The question on the minds of sellers, buyers, homeowners, and just about everyone else is whether prices might actually fall. Sorry, buyers, that likely won’t happen anytime soon.

The nation is still suffering from a severe housing shortage resulting in more buyers than there are abodes for sale. This is a continuing hangover from the Great Recession’s aftermath, when builders largely held off on building while investors bought up single-family homes and turned them into rentals. Meanwhile, the millennial generation is larger than the previous one, meaning there are more prospective buyers than there were a decade or so ago.

There’s plenty of pent-up demand for homes.

“You’ve still got a lot of young people who have still not bought a home but who would like to,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “Anytime the market starts to cool, you’ve got people on the sidelines waiting for their chance to get in. That keeps both home sales and home prices from declining too much.”

She expects more homes to hit the market in October and through the end of the year. But it won’t be enough to ameliorate the problem of demand.

The nation is still short about 5 million homes, Hale says. As builders can’t get them up fast enough, she expects it will take between five and six years before there are enough homes for sale to meet demand.

New construction is beginning to pick up after months of builders contending with shortages in lumber, labor, materials, and appliances. While there are still delays compared with before the pandemic, there was about a 5% uptick in construction in August compared with July, says Zonda’s Wolf.

“Inventory is still very, very tight,” says Wolf. But “we’re up from the bottom. We expect to see a little more inventory trickle onto the market through the end of this year and into next year.”

Rising mortgage rates will likely keep high prices under control

Rising mortgage interest rates are expected to keep price growth in check: After all, buyers can afford to fork over only so much for their monthly housing payments. So if rates rise, buyers won’t be able to afford more expensive properties.

This could result in lower price growth, or prices going flat or even dipping a little in certain markets.

“Once mortgage rates push up a little bit, it’s going to combine with higher home prices to price people out of the market,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Some markets could see prices go down a little, like in the most juiced markets. … [But] it’s not a crash.”

Rates are expected to top 3% by the end of the year and reach 4% by the end of 2022, says Joel Kan, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. They averaged 2.88% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending Sept. 23, according to the most recent Freddie Mac data.

Historically speaking, even 4% is still low. Over the past 20 years, mortgage rates averaged about 5%, according to MBA. The difference between a 3% and a 4% rate on a $380,000 home (the median list price nationally) was about $169 a month on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. That adds up to nearly $61,000 over the life of the loan.

“We’re expecting rates to increase moderately over the next 12 months,” says Kan. “As the economy improves, as the job market improves, typically that pushes rates higher. [But] there is a little bit more uncertainty now, given that we’ve seen the pandemic linger longer than we expected.”

How will the fall market affect home sellers?

While experts predict the housing market will remain firmly in the seller’s court, the days of picking prices out of thin air are likely coming to an end. The same goes for not making any improvements to a property (let alone having it properly cleaned) before listing it.

“Some sellers got a little too greedy or had a misconception about the market conditions,” says NAR’s Yun.

Zonda’s Wolf recommends sellers look at comps of other homes in their neighborhoods that have recently sold to get a realistic idea of what they can charge for their properties. They should also get their homes in tiptop shape. And while they may not get 20 offers like their neighbors may have received a few months ago, well-priced, move-in ready homes are in high demand.

“If you’re a seller today, you’ll likely still get top dollar, but you’re still going to have to put in the work,” adds Wolf. “Dust for cobwebs, stage the home, put on a fresh coat of paint.”

 

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: buyers, Coronavirus, days on market, fall, first time home buyers, home buyers, Home Inventory, Home Prices, home sellers, Housing, Housing Market, Low Inventory, Pandemic, Recession, Sellers, supply

Study: Homes prices in Seattle are expected to rise 18% over the next year

September 10, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Home prices in the Seattle metro area are expected to rise 18% over the next year, according to a new study by Porch.

“Over the past 18 months, home prices across the nation have shot up to levels unseen since the build-up to the 2008 financial crisis,” researchers wrote in the study. “In April 2021, the year-over-year growth of the Case-Shiller Index, the premier metric for housing prices, eclipsed 14.5% for the first time in its history.”

By analyzing data from Zillow, Redfin and the Census Bureau, researchers at Porch calculated expected rises in home prices in 51 large metros across the U.S. Seattle’s forecasted rise in home costs was ranked the 19th highest on that list. Austin, Texas, took the top spot — homes prices there are expected to rise by more than 37% over the next year.

This chart shows a list of large metros in the U.S. where home prices are expected to increase the most over the next year. Seattle is at spot 19. 
This chart shows a list of large metros in the U.S. where home prices are expected to increase the most over the next year. Seattle is at spot 19.

Real estate experts say the nation’s dwindling supply of homes is to blame for skyrocketing prices.

In June, the National Association of Realtors released a report calling for a dire, “once-in-a-generation” solution to the shrinking supply of houses in the U.S. That report estimates the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of anywhere from 5.5 million to 6.8 million units.

In their study, which was released last week, analysts at Porch detailed how such prices are affecting buyers:

“Redfin data revealed the percentage of homes selling above asking price shot up 13 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic levels,” Porch analysts wrote. “More than 60% of buyers were putting offers on houses sight unseen and the number of homes being bought without an inspection nearly doubled compared to the previous year.”

In Seattle alone, more than 4,500 homes have sold for at least $100,000 above asking price in 2021. During the same period last year, just 400 Seattle homes sold for more than $100,000 above asking price.

While large metros — areas with more than one million people — are leading the nation in expected jumps in housing costs, the nation’s biggest midsize (350,000 to 999,999 people) and small (100,000 to 349,999 people) metros are also expected to see housing prices increase over the next year, according to the study.

Alec Regimbal, Seattle P-I

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Home Prices, Low interest rates, Real Estate

Seattle area’s home prices take biggest-ever 12-month leap

July 7, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

A ferry departs Edmonds, part of Snohomish County’s rapidly climbing housing market, in November. Home prices in the Seattle metro area and around the country continue to increase steadily. (Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)

What a difference just two years can make.

Around this time in 2019, Seattle-area home prices had dipped and price growth nationwide was slowing.

Cut to 2021: Seattle has clocked another month as one of the hottest American housing markets as home prices here and nationwide climb at a record-breaking pace.

Single-family home prices in the Seattle metro area were up 20.2% in April from a year earlier, the region’s biggest-ever 12-month leap, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index released Tuesday. (The index lags by two months and reflects portions of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties.)

Travis Meidell, who works in tech and bought a home in Lake Stevens this spring, said the local housing market felt like it “got more competitive” over the course of his home search that stretched from 2020 into this spring. “It became more cutthroat.”

Prices climbed faster in Seattle than nationwide even as costs nationally jumped 14.6%, “literally the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data,” said S&P Managing Director Craig Lazzara in a statement.

For more than a year, a flood of buyer demand, a tight supply of homes and super-low interest rates have fueled wild growth in housing markets all over the country. While there are some recent signs buyer demand could finally be slipping, things were still red-hot in April.

The frenzied market has laid bare the vast divide of pandemic experiences, with many low-wage workers losing jobs early in the outbreak while others worked from home and tech stocks soared. Rising housing costs could also exacerbate racial gaps in homeownership. A recent Redfin survey found that Black homeowners were more likely than white homeowners to have made financial sacrifices, like taking on an extra job, in order to afford their first home.

Among major metro areas in April, only Phoenix and San Diego saw quicker year-over-year growth than Seattle, both at roughly 22%, according to the Case-Shiller index. The index reports a three-month rolling average of home prices.

Not everywhere in the Seattle area has seen the same trends. Many of the toughest markets to buy a home in recent months have been outside Seattle proper.

In April and May, home prices were up between 17% and 22% year-over-year in parts of Snohomish and Pierce counties, compared with jumps between 9% and 11% in Seattle, according to Zillow. Hot spots included Snohomish, Mill Creek and Lake Stevens in Snohomish County and Parkland in Pierce County.

All that competition has left homebuyers feeling the pressure.

Kristen Mandery, who grew up in Edmonds, has watched the sizzling market with a front-row view as she searched in recent months for a new house to be close to her mom.

The first house for which she submitted an offer went to another buyer for $400,000 over its list price, the second for $375,000 over. She finally secured her new house in an off-market deal and paid about $25,000 over the list price.

“I’ve lived in this area over 40 years and I’ve never ever seen the housing market like this,” Mandery said.

When Meidell began searching, he and his wife hoped to buy in Edmonds but prices there eventually stretched beyond their reach, he said. They instead bought farther north in Lake Stevens, settling for a longer commute and paying about $90,000 over the five-bedroom home’s list price to compete against other buyers.

As the couple searched for a new house, Meidell said he set up a search with filters for his budget and other parameters. The options seemed to get slimmer before his eyes.

“Every week you could watch the dots just rapidly disappear,” Meidell said. “It was this continuous state of anxiety: If I don’t do this, eventually there will be nothing left.”

Just how long can all this last?

New data on local home sales to be released next week will show whether demand has begun to slow in Western Washington.

Nationally, CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp predicted Tuesday that price increases will stay in the double digits through the rest of this year.

Hepp argues that although jaw-dropping price jumps may feel reminiscent of the 2008 crash, “mortgage interest rates remain 50% lower than they were in 2005, when home price growth last peaked, keeping the ratio of mortgage payments to monthly households income lower today.”

By 

Heidi Groover 
Seattle Times business reporter

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Competing offers, Home Prices, Home Trends, Low Inventory, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate

How to buy a house in the Seattle area’s red-hot 2021 real estate market

April 19, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Want to buy a house in the Seattle area? You’ll need stockpiles of cash in the bank, endless free time and a masochistic streak.

OK, maybe it’s not quite that bad.

Still, the region’s housing market is one of the hottest in the country. Prices are up. Inventory is selling fast. Your dream home could draw dozens of competing offers. It will likely sell for more than the list price, maybe even to an all-cash buyer.

So frenzied is this sellers’ market that some buyers can barely get in to see a home before someone else snags it.

“We’re halfway through our appointment, we’re gushing about how we want to make an offer and the Realtor gets an alert that they accepted an offer earlier today,” recalled recent buyer Alice Cryer. “We were standing in the house.”

Along the way, buyers are expected to make quick decisions with high stakes. Will you have the house inspected? (What about the sewer?) There’s a cash buyer making a better offer — can you pay any more?

“We watched a lot of HGTV,” said James Johnson, who with his wife, Emily, bought a Tacoma town house this year. “It was nothing like you saw on television.”

We talked to real estate brokers, lenders and recent buyers to put together a more realistic picture.

Before you buy

Saving up: Long before you set up your Redfin alerts, your financial status will shape your homebuying experience.

How much do you make? How much have you been able to save for a down payment? Do you already own a home you’ll be selling? Do you have stocks or a 401(k) to tap for extra cash? Can your family help? If a lender takes a deep dive into your finances, what will they find?

Even with assistance programs and today’s low mortgage interest rates, many people will be locked out of homebuying.

By one estimate, a household would need to make nearly $107,000 a year to afford a home in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area with a 20% down payment. With less money to put down, you need an even higher income. For a buyer putting 10% down, the salary threshold increases to about $125,000. Home-ownership rates show stark racial gaps. In Washington, 67% of white people own a home compared to 31% of Black people.

The pandemic has only underscored those gaps, said Tacoma-based Windermere agent Sharon Chambers-Gordon.

“The essential workers who are the backbone of this country doing the work that is allowing us to live and eat are the ones who have been left behind in being able to purchase a home,” Chambers-Gordon said. “Even when you have payment assistance programs, you still need access to cash.”

As a homebuyer, your finances will factor into where you can buy and whether you’ll have an edge over other eager shoppers.

Generally speaking, the old rule of thumb that you need 20% for a down payment isn’t a hard-and-fast requirement. But in the most competitive areas, that’s common.

The median buyer in King County during the final quarter of last year paid 18.4% for their down payment, or roughly $134,000. In Pierce County, where home prices are climbing but more affordable, buyers paid a much lower 4.6%, or about $19,500, according to ATTOM Data Solutions.

Other costs: The down payment isn’t the only pot of cash you’ll need.

In the most competitive markets, expect to pay for inspections, sometimes on multiple houses, at roughly $500 each or more (plus more to look at the sewer — more important than it sounds!). At the end of the deal, you’ll pay closing costs of roughly 2 to 5% of the price of your home.

You’ll likely need to set aside a deposit in an escrow account, also known as your “earnest money,” to show a seller you’re serious about your offer. This can range from 2 or 3% of the price of the house to 10%, depending on how competitive the area is, brokers say. Depending on the conditions you attach to this money, the seller could keep it if you back out of the deal. If all goes well, you can apply this later to your down payment or closing costs.

Look for assistance programs: If saving tens of thousands of dollars for a down payment feels out of reach, look for assistance programs. In the most expensive neighborhoods, it can be harder to secure a house with less money down, so even with assistance, your offer may be less competitive.

An FHA loan, insured by the federal government, allows you to put 3.5% down. Veterans may qualify for VA-backed loans with no down payment.

Michael Pokryfke combined a VA loan, $2,200 in savings and $15,000 borrowed from his retirement account to buy a two-bedroom condo in Renton. “I was under the assumption I’d never buy a house,” he said.

To help with a down payment, the Washington State Housing Finance Commission offers no-interest loans of up to 4% of the mortgage for families who make $145,000 a year or less, have a credit score of at least 620 and use the commission’s mortgage programs. The loans are deferred, meaning you don’t have to repay until your mortgage is paid off or you sell or refinance.

Look for a homebuyer education course to learn more, and talk to your agent about what’s possible — and what’s realistic — in today’s market.

Preparing to house hunt

Find your agent and lender: You’re not looking for just anyone to help with the biggest purchase of your life. Take time to find a real estate agent and a lender you trust. A recommendation from friends or family with firsthand experience is a good place to start for both.

Treat this like interviewing candidates for a job. Talk to a few before you choose. Suss out how well they know the local market.

Ask a potential real estate agent how they’re tracking the local market and how many recent local sales they’ve had. Find someone who won’t sugarcoat the current challenges.

A loan officer should be able to walk you through different financing options, including assistance programs, and should be quick to return your calls and emails, brokers said. Local connections could give you an edge. Sellers’ agents may prefer local loan officers they know and trust to finish the closing process quickly.

Line up a loan: Unless you’re bringing all cash, you’ll need a loan — and you’ll need to be well into the lending process before you start house hunting. Forget getting “preapproved”: Buyers are increasingly getting pre-underwritten, a step further along in the approval process. If a lender has scoured your financials, a seller can have more confidence your deal won’t fall through.

“It’s not as good as cash, but it’s the best you can do when you’re financing,” said Aaron Crossley, sales manager at Caliber Home Loans.

This process can be more invasive for self-employed borrowers. A lender may look at a longer income history for someone who is self-employed, and the effects of the pandemic can show up here. Say your bar, restaurant or freelance career took a serious hit during the pandemic but is returning to normal now. A lender looking at two or three years of your finances will have to consider those 2020 losses.

The search

“Miserable.” “Cutthroat.” “Exhausting and depressing.” “The worst.”

Those are a few ways recent homebuyers described the process of searching for a home in the Seattle area.

Their advice: Have your priorities clear when you start searching. What’s most important to you? What can you live without? Do you and your partner each have veto power?

Get real about list prices: They can be meaningless. Because so many houses sell for over their list price — nearly half in the Seattle area, according to Zillow — look at homes listed below the amount you can actually spend in order to leave room for sweetening your offer.

“I tell people in this market if you’re looking to purchase a home for $1 million, start looking at $750,000 to $800,000,” said Umpqua Bank loan officer Amie Edmondson.

“I was completely addicted to Zillow,” said Hayley Sayre, who with her wife, Anna, bought a home in Tacoma last fall. The couple, both teachers, said a walk around each neighborhood where they made an offer gave them a sense of how they would like living there.

Go farther, and consider condos: Look as far from your ideal destination as you’re willing to go. Keep an eye out for homes that have been lingering on the market. But, with construction costs soaring, be careful not to fall for a fixer-upper that will be a money pit. Each week, take a night off from scouring listings to avoid burnout, suggested Cryer, who recently closed on a three-bedroom house in Parkland, south of Tacoma.

If you’re not set on a single-family house, add condos and townhomes to your search.

As buyers look for more space indoors and outdoors, the condo market is less bruising. Across King County, including in Seattle, condo prices are climbing more slowly than single-family home prices. (The condo market is hotter on the Eastside and in South King County.) In Seattle, it would take nearly two months to sell through all the inventory at current demand, compared to a little over two weeks for single-family homes.

“If you don’t need that single-family home,” said Redfin agent Shoshana Godwin, “don’t compete for it.”

So you love that house

You’ve found a house where you can picture yourself making waffles and playing with your future labradoodle puppy. Great!

Now don’t get attached.

Many buyers lose their first offer, if not several. You need to be committed enough to offer hundreds of thousands of dollars for the place, but ready to let go if you lose. Several buyers said they reminded themselves there would “always be another house.”

Prepare to bid: When you’re ready to start bidding, the dollar amount isn’t the only factor that will make your offer stand out. You’ll have to decide whether to waive various protections known as contingencies.

In theory, buyers can make their offers contingent on a variety of factors to safeguard their purchase. You can await an inspection, financing from a bank or an appraiser confirming the home is worth the price. But in a sellers’ market like this, the race is on to drop those protections to make your offer more attractive to the seller.

Know a few of your key contingencies:

Early release of earnest money: Remember, earnest money is that upfront deposit you bring to show the seller you’re serious. Making that money nonrefundable and releasing some early to the seller means if the deal falls through, you’ll lose the cash.

Inspection contingency and pre-inspections: Gone are the days you can count on having your offer accepted and then doing an inspection to find any potential issues with the house. Many buyers are now waiving this contingency, instead either paying for a “pre-inspection” before they put the offer in, accepting an inspection paid for by the seller, or skipping the inspection altogether.

Skipping your own inspection “is kind of the nuclear option,” said Dylan Chalk, of Orca Inspection Services, who’s been working as a home inspector for nearly two decades. But if you’re going to do it and the seller offers their inspection, look for pictures, videos and plenty of specific detail about the house, Chalk suggests. A good inspection should feel like “an owner’s manual for the house,” he said.

Appraisal contingency: Once you’ve been approved for a mortgage, your bank still wants to check out the price it will be covering for the house.

Usually, this contingency would protect you if the appraiser finds the house is worth less than you offered. However, buyers increasingly face pressure to agree to pay any difference between the appraised value and their offer. If you plan to do this, you’ll need to be prepared with money to cover any difference between what the bank will lend you and the cost of the house. With no idea what that difference might be, this is a high risk.

Financing contingency: Waiving this means if your loan falls through, you could lose your earnest money. You could also potentially be required to buy the house anyway or face a lawsuit, though brokers say legal action is rare since typically the seller can quickly find another buyer.

The bad news is that while waiving these protections offered an edge in the past, they’re well-known strategies now. A small snapshot: Among Seattle-area Redfin offers in March, nearly eight in 10 waived the financing contingency, six waived the inspection contingency and fewer than one in ten waived the appraisal contingency.

No one hack will guarantee you get the house you love. Buyers need “luck, money and resilience,” said Seattle-based Compass broker Jennica Lynn.

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

By 

Heidi Groover 
Seattle Times business reporter

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: applying for a loan, Competing offers, Find your agent and lender, Home Prices, Hot Real Estate Market, Low Inventory, save money

Seattle-area housing market in one sentence: ‘What a difference a month makes’

July 17, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Home prices rose in the four-county metro area in June, but they climbed more in outlying areas as buyers sought to move to less congested areas.

Compared to a year ago, the Puget Sound region’s single-family housing market is in the dumps, but compared to earlier this year, it’s moving ever higher.

Record-low interest rates are fueling the market, with the region among the nation’s markets that are seeing the strongest recovery from the pandemic.

Strong demand and low inventory drove prices up in June, according to data the Northwest Multiple Listing Service released Monday. In the four-county metro, Pierce logged the largest increase, nearly 9%, followed up Kitsap (6.6%), Snohomish (5.2%) and King (4.3%).

Demand is especially strong in areas farther afield as buyers look to escape crowded cities and suburbs due to Covid-19 and urban strife

Median sale prices rocketed up from 12% in Thurston County (Olympia) to nearly 31% in Kittitas County (Ellensburg and Suncadia). Prices similarly rose in the counties that are home to Shelton, Port Townsend and Wenatchee/Chelan.

More space and lower prices and taxes make these areas more attractive now that people have discovered they can get most of their work done from home, Dean Rebhuhn, president of Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville, said in the NWMLS news release.

The extraordinarily low supply of homes for sale indicates prices could further climb in outlying areas still relatively close to Seattle, said James Young, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research.

A lack of housing stock is holding back the market. In the four-county metro, there were nearly 4,350 fewer homes for sale this June compared to last, a 48% decline. New listings were down 11%, closed sales were off 13% and pending sales were about even.

But compared to May, the June numbers were downright muscular. New listings were up 35%, closed sales were 39% higher and pending sales increased nearly 13%.

 

By Marc Stiles  – Staff Writer, Puget Sound Business Journal

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Home Prices, Housing Market, Multiple Offers, Record Low Interest Rates

Americans are starting to feel better about buying homes — sort of

February 13, 2019 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

  • The share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 4 percentage points to 15 percent in January compared with December, according to a monthly survey from Fannie Mae.
  • Home price gains have been shrinking since last summer and are now rising at the slowest pace in more than six years, according to CoreLogic.
  • The share of Americans who say home prices will go up fell 1 percentage point to 30 percent.

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Prospective home buyers arrive with a realtor to a house for sale in Dunlap, Illinois, U.S., on Sunday, Aug. 19, 2018.

More consumers now see the door to homeownership slowly squeaking open, but they still think it’s pretty pricey.

The share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 4 percentage points to 15 percent in January compared with December, according to a monthly survey from Fannie Mae. The share is still down sizably from the start of 2018, when housing demand was soaring and home prices were rising at a much faster clip.

Home price gains have been shrinking since last summer and are now rising at the slowest pace in more than six years, according to CoreLogic. Consequently, the share of Americans who say home prices will go up fell 1 percentage point to 30 percent. That share has been declining for four straight months and is down a whopping 22 percentage points from a year ago, according to Fannie Mae.

While consumer confidence in housing is rising this year, it was still a bit unsteady in the fourth quarter of last year.

Seventy-six percent of potential home buyers estimated they could afford fewer than half the homes for sale in their markets, according to a year-end poll from the National Association of Home Builders. That share is lower than the 79 percent who shared that perception in the fourth quarter of 2017, but not by much.

“In the year ended in the fourth quarter of 2018, there was not a lot of change in how homebuyers perceived their ability to afford homes available in their markets,” said Rose Quint, author of the NAHB survey.

Attitudes toward homebuying are improving this year because it appears that mortgage rates will not be increasing as much as previously expected. The share of those who expect rates to go up over the next year fell 3 percentage points to 53 percent in the Fannie Mae survey. The Federal Reserve has signaled it may not be as aggressive in hiking interest rates as previously forecast.

“Overall, these results are in line with our forecast that, amid improving affordability conditions, home sales should stabilize in 2019 after declining last year for the first time in four years,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist.

Cooler home prices and lower interest rates certainly increase affordability and help consumers feel better about buying, but the biggest change influencing that sentiment is consumers’ perception of their own wealth.

The share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was a year ago increased 8 percentage points to 27 percent. That is 11 percentage points higher from the same time last year.

In addition, fewer Americans said they were concerned about losing their jobs.

Diana Olick

Filed Under: Homeownership Tagged With: Fannie Mae, Home Prices, Homebuyers, Interest Rates

Economist: Seattle’s slow housing market only a blip

December 27, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

You may have heard that the big chill has suddenly hit the Seattle housing market. According to the Case-Shiller home-price index, Seattle home prices are falling faster than the rest of the country. The Emerald City was leading only a few months ago.

But we mustn’t read too much into it, says Chief Economist Matthew Gardner at Windermere Real Estate.

“In terms of overall house prices, in the last couple of months we’ve seen some significant softening,” Gardner told Seattle’s Morning News. “There are some out there that are projecting a bubble, a major correction in housing values — I don’t see it.”

According to the Case-Shiller home-price index, single-family home costs declined 1.3 percent in September, following a 1.6 percent drop the month before. What’s especially striking is how widespread the drop is; it extends from Pierce to King to Snohomish counties.

“We’ve certainly reached a peak with a lack of affordability. There must be a ratio between home prices and incomes — we’ve breached that, but it doesn’t mean that housing prices are going to correct in the downside,” he said. “Housing is not a stock. You shouldn’t look at it on its value day-to-day, month-to-month, or even year-to-year. It’s shelter, first, and an asset, second.”

Regarding the ideal type of housing that could potentially mitigate the housing crisis, Gardner would like to see far more town homes, duplexes, triplexes, ADUs, and small cottages, among others. He also believes we need to improve transit substantially and increase density around transit centers as means of making it easier for people to live somewhat near job centers, where Seattle home prices are normally higher.

Gardner says that part of the reason that prices have softened is that plenty more units are coming on the market and that people are trying to time the market. Invariably, when you get more supply, with a still reasonable demand, home price growth softens.

“I think a lot of those will trail off this month as they classically do in December. The big question is going to be is how many more units we see coming online in the spring market.”

BY MYNORTHWEST STAFF

Filed Under: Issaquah Lifestyle Blog Tagged With: Home Prices, Issaquah Real Estate, new homeowner, Reichle Real Estate Team

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Eastside Real Estate Blog

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