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‘The Fever Has Broken’: Is the Housing Market Frenzy Really Going To Cool Off This Fall?

October 6, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

 

Over the next few weeks and months, the long-overheated U.S. housing market is expected to continue to cool off in the bracing chill of autumn.

After a wild year of unprecedented price increases, a worsening shortage of homes for sale, and cutthroat bidding wars where offers six figures over the ask price weren’t uncommon, conditions are finally normalizing. More homes are expected to go up for sale this season just as many would-be buyers are either priced out or so fed up after losing out on home after home that they’re dropping out of the running.

“The fever in the housing market has broken,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of building consultancy Zonda. “There have been buyers that have just been beat down for the last six months—and after losing so many homes and going through the emotional roller coaster, they’ve decided to stop searching for now. There are more homes on the market than there were six months ago.”

During the COVID-19 pandemic, record-low mortgage interest rates, below 3%, helped many homebuyers to absorb prices that reached all-time highs in the spring and summer. But prices rose so high so quickly that even bargain mortgage rates couldn’t offset them enough to give buyers some needed financial relief.

With more folks sidelined, some of the steam has been let out of the market. Prices aren’t rising by as much as competition is down and homes are taking a little longer to sell, giving buyers some breathing room.

In September, the rate of year-over-year growth was halved, to 8.6%, down from its peak of 17.2% in April, according to Realtor.com® data. This means the median list price of a home grew half as fast as in the spring. Homes also took a bit longer to sell, at about 43 days. While that’s down 11 days from the same month last year and 22 days from 2019, it’s up 6 days from June.

“Things are settling down. There will still be some multiple offers, but it will be less tense,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®. He expects the days of homes receiving 20 to 30 offers are becoming a thing of the past. “And some homes are lingering on the market for a week or two without an offer.”

This fall, buyers may once again be able to include contingencies in their offers, such as requiring home inspections and appraisals, and still win out bidding wars. They may even—gasp—get homes at the list price.

All-cash offers could also dip if buyers don’t need to cash out their savings, stocks, and cryptocurrency stashes to stand out from the competition.

“It’s not like the market is soft,” says Yun. “It’s just moving away from that extreme frenzy.”

The changes in the housing market may be coinciding with the seasonal slowdown. Typically, competition is fierce in the summer as families battle over larger homes in the suburbs, hoping to secure residences and settle in before the kids start school. Then the market slows down with less competition for the smaller homes that traditionally go up for sale.

Yun expects annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, around 5%, versus the double-digit price hikes that reigned earlier in the year. But this may not be true for every home in every part of the country.

“If you want a reasonably priced home in a desirable area, be ready to still face stiff competition,” says Zonda’s Wolf.

Will home prices fall?

The question on the minds of sellers, buyers, homeowners, and just about everyone else is whether prices might actually fall. Sorry, buyers, that likely won’t happen anytime soon.

The nation is still suffering from a severe housing shortage resulting in more buyers than there are abodes for sale. This is a continuing hangover from the Great Recession’s aftermath, when builders largely held off on building while investors bought up single-family homes and turned them into rentals. Meanwhile, the millennial generation is larger than the previous one, meaning there are more prospective buyers than there were a decade or so ago.

There’s plenty of pent-up demand for homes.

“You’ve still got a lot of young people who have still not bought a home but who would like to,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “Anytime the market starts to cool, you’ve got people on the sidelines waiting for their chance to get in. That keeps both home sales and home prices from declining too much.”

She expects more homes to hit the market in October and through the end of the year. But it won’t be enough to ameliorate the problem of demand.

The nation is still short about 5 million homes, Hale says. As builders can’t get them up fast enough, she expects it will take between five and six years before there are enough homes for sale to meet demand.

New construction is beginning to pick up after months of builders contending with shortages in lumber, labor, materials, and appliances. While there are still delays compared with before the pandemic, there was about a 5% uptick in construction in August compared with July, says Zonda’s Wolf.

“Inventory is still very, very tight,” says Wolf. But “we’re up from the bottom. We expect to see a little more inventory trickle onto the market through the end of this year and into next year.”

Rising mortgage rates will likely keep high prices under control

Rising mortgage interest rates are expected to keep price growth in check: After all, buyers can afford to fork over only so much for their monthly housing payments. So if rates rise, buyers won’t be able to afford more expensive properties.

This could result in lower price growth, or prices going flat or even dipping a little in certain markets.

“Once mortgage rates push up a little bit, it’s going to combine with higher home prices to price people out of the market,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Some markets could see prices go down a little, like in the most juiced markets. … [But] it’s not a crash.”

Rates are expected to top 3% by the end of the year and reach 4% by the end of 2022, says Joel Kan, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. They averaged 2.88% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending Sept. 23, according to the most recent Freddie Mac data.

Historically speaking, even 4% is still low. Over the past 20 years, mortgage rates averaged about 5%, according to MBA. The difference between a 3% and a 4% rate on a $380,000 home (the median list price nationally) was about $169 a month on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. That adds up to nearly $61,000 over the life of the loan.

“We’re expecting rates to increase moderately over the next 12 months,” says Kan. “As the economy improves, as the job market improves, typically that pushes rates higher. [But] there is a little bit more uncertainty now, given that we’ve seen the pandemic linger longer than we expected.”

How will the fall market affect home sellers?

While experts predict the housing market will remain firmly in the seller’s court, the days of picking prices out of thin air are likely coming to an end. The same goes for not making any improvements to a property (let alone having it properly cleaned) before listing it.

“Some sellers got a little too greedy or had a misconception about the market conditions,” says NAR’s Yun.

Zonda’s Wolf recommends sellers look at comps of other homes in their neighborhoods that have recently sold to get a realistic idea of what they can charge for their properties. They should also get their homes in tiptop shape. And while they may not get 20 offers like their neighbors may have received a few months ago, well-priced, move-in ready homes are in high demand.

“If you’re a seller today, you’ll likely still get top dollar, but you’re still going to have to put in the work,” adds Wolf. “Dust for cobwebs, stage the home, put on a fresh coat of paint.”

 

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: buyers, Coronavirus, days on market, fall, first time home buyers, home buyers, Home Inventory, Home Prices, home sellers, Housing, Housing Market, Low Inventory, Pandemic, Recession, Sellers, supply

WASHINGTON TAKES A STAND FOR GRANNY FLATS

March 23, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

For the first time in decades, legislators say yes to state standards for housing abundance.

Granny flats won in Olympia this session. Yesterday, Washington lawmakers took action to address the state’s housing shortage, leading cities in a unified effort to curb home prices and congestion by allowing more homes of all shapes and sizes.

Lawmakers passed SB 6617, waiving off-street parking requirements for backyard cottages, granny flats, and daylight basement apartments near frequent transit. Legislators haven’t required cities to legalize more housing so explicitly since 1993, the last time Washington passed accessory dwelling unit (ADU) legislation.

The bill, sponsored by Senators Liias (D-Lynnwood) and Das (D-Kent), and championed in the House by Representatives Fitzgibbon (D-Burien), Gregerson (D-Seatac), and Barkis (R-Olympia), will head to Governor Inslee’s desk for his signature later this month.

Accessory dwellings provide flexible housing choices for people at all stages of life, from young professionals to aging parents. The small homes tuck neatly into existing neighborhoods and their modest size reduces per capita home energy use. Diversifying home choices in existing neighborhoods also expands access to public gems, like local parks, community centers, and great schools, a move which makes all the more sense at a time when shrinking household size means many neighborhoods have fewer residents today than they did 50 years ago.

A significant move: People—and homes—over parking

The bill prohibits cities from imposing off-street parking requirements for ADUs within one-quarter mile of frequent transit, including commuter rail, rapid transit buses, or other public transportation that runs every 15 minutes or more during peak hours. Cities can prove extenuating circumstances, such as limited street space, to maintain parking mandates in specific areas.

Off-street parking requirements can add steep cost and complication to ADU home construction. Yet nearly every city in Washington imposes these rules, demanding homeowners section off large chunks of their lots for cars if they want to add one of these modest homes. Not only do the rules perpetuate car dependence and increase the cost of housing, they are also unnecessary in most neighborhoods, where ample street parking exists. Parking mandates make it impossible to build ADUs on many small or oddly shaped lots; even when space exists, many homeowners may balk at sacrificing yard space to make room for more car storage.

Legislators stripped the bill down considerably from its original form, which would have widened the no off-street parking buffers to one-half mile around transit stops with service at least twice per hour. A second, even stronger, ADU bill considered in the House, HB 2570, passed out of committee on a 10-1 vote but never made it to the floor for a vote. The main opposition to both bills came from legislators and stakeholders who believe that the state has no business setting rules on local land use. Sightline advised on the architecture of both ADU bills this session.

A groundswell of progress on ADUs

ADUs are en vogue on the west coast.

This was the second time Washington lawmakers considered reducing barriers to ADU construction. In 2019, Representatives Mia Gregerson and Andrew Barkis proposed the most ambitious state-level ADU reform in the country. But legislators steadily watered the bill down, eventually causing the proposal’s quiet death at the end of session.

Washington’s ADU efforts follow on the heels of success in other west coast states. Beginning in 2016, California’s lawmakers passed a series of bills striking down barriers to ADUs. The first measures waived off-street parking requirements for units within one-half mile of any public transit stop or car share, streamlined permitting, and capped utility fees. Cities around the state saw an explosion of ADU construction following these initial reforms, demonstrating that unwieldy local restrictions had hamstrung these low-impact infill homes.

In 2020, California legislators passed another round of standout ADU legislation. The newest laws ban minimum lot size and owner occupancy requirements in cities across the state, waive off-street parking requirements for projects that convert existing garages or carports into ADUs, and cap impact fees.

In 2019, Oregon lawmakers also nodded to the importance of ADUs, lifting all owner occupancy and off-street parking requirements in cities with populations greater than 2,500 within urban growth boundaries.

More affordability leadership to come

Washington legislators have been content to let cities make almost all the rules for housing for nearly three decades. But under this scattershot regime of local control, the creation of new homes has fallen far behind the growing need, and prices have ballooned across the state. Though lawmakers passed an impressive stack of housing bills in 2019, encouraging homebuilding, and providing additional funding for affordable housing, none of these laws required cities to take direct action to make room for more housing.

Yesterday’s passage of SB 6617 is the first time since the early 1990s that state legislators have called on cities to do more.

Though the bill is a relatively small step—especially in comparison with the progress in Washington’s neighbors to the south, and the magnitude of the state’s housing deficit—it’s a landmark decision. Perhaps it represents the beginning of more state leadership to curb prices and commutes and ensure abundant housing for all Washingtonians.

Author: Margaret Morales

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: ADU reform, ADUs, Affordability, Backyard Cottages, granny flats, Housing, Mother-in-laws, Waleg

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Eastside Real Estate Blog

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