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‘The Fever Has Broken’: Is the Housing Market Frenzy Really Going To Cool Off This Fall?

October 6, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

 

Over the next few weeks and months, the long-overheated U.S. housing market is expected to continue to cool off in the bracing chill of autumn.

After a wild year of unprecedented price increases, a worsening shortage of homes for sale, and cutthroat bidding wars where offers six figures over the ask price weren’t uncommon, conditions are finally normalizing. More homes are expected to go up for sale this season just as many would-be buyers are either priced out or so fed up after losing out on home after home that they’re dropping out of the running.

“The fever in the housing market has broken,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of building consultancy Zonda. “There have been buyers that have just been beat down for the last six months—and after losing so many homes and going through the emotional roller coaster, they’ve decided to stop searching for now. There are more homes on the market than there were six months ago.”

During the COVID-19 pandemic, record-low mortgage interest rates, below 3%, helped many homebuyers to absorb prices that reached all-time highs in the spring and summer. But prices rose so high so quickly that even bargain mortgage rates couldn’t offset them enough to give buyers some needed financial relief.

With more folks sidelined, some of the steam has been let out of the market. Prices aren’t rising by as much as competition is down and homes are taking a little longer to sell, giving buyers some breathing room.

In September, the rate of year-over-year growth was halved, to 8.6%, down from its peak of 17.2% in April, according to Realtor.com® data. This means the median list price of a home grew half as fast as in the spring. Homes also took a bit longer to sell, at about 43 days. While that’s down 11 days from the same month last year and 22 days from 2019, it’s up 6 days from June.

“Things are settling down. There will still be some multiple offers, but it will be less tense,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®. He expects the days of homes receiving 20 to 30 offers are becoming a thing of the past. “And some homes are lingering on the market for a week or two without an offer.”

This fall, buyers may once again be able to include contingencies in their offers, such as requiring home inspections and appraisals, and still win out bidding wars. They may even—gasp—get homes at the list price.

All-cash offers could also dip if buyers don’t need to cash out their savings, stocks, and cryptocurrency stashes to stand out from the competition.

“It’s not like the market is soft,” says Yun. “It’s just moving away from that extreme frenzy.”

The changes in the housing market may be coinciding with the seasonal slowdown. Typically, competition is fierce in the summer as families battle over larger homes in the suburbs, hoping to secure residences and settle in before the kids start school. Then the market slows down with less competition for the smaller homes that traditionally go up for sale.

Yun expects annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, around 5%, versus the double-digit price hikes that reigned earlier in the year. But this may not be true for every home in every part of the country.

“If you want a reasonably priced home in a desirable area, be ready to still face stiff competition,” says Zonda’s Wolf.

Will home prices fall?

The question on the minds of sellers, buyers, homeowners, and just about everyone else is whether prices might actually fall. Sorry, buyers, that likely won’t happen anytime soon.

The nation is still suffering from a severe housing shortage resulting in more buyers than there are abodes for sale. This is a continuing hangover from the Great Recession’s aftermath, when builders largely held off on building while investors bought up single-family homes and turned them into rentals. Meanwhile, the millennial generation is larger than the previous one, meaning there are more prospective buyers than there were a decade or so ago.

There’s plenty of pent-up demand for homes.

“You’ve still got a lot of young people who have still not bought a home but who would like to,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “Anytime the market starts to cool, you’ve got people on the sidelines waiting for their chance to get in. That keeps both home sales and home prices from declining too much.”

She expects more homes to hit the market in October and through the end of the year. But it won’t be enough to ameliorate the problem of demand.

The nation is still short about 5 million homes, Hale says. As builders can’t get them up fast enough, she expects it will take between five and six years before there are enough homes for sale to meet demand.

New construction is beginning to pick up after months of builders contending with shortages in lumber, labor, materials, and appliances. While there are still delays compared with before the pandemic, there was about a 5% uptick in construction in August compared with July, says Zonda’s Wolf.

“Inventory is still very, very tight,” says Wolf. But “we’re up from the bottom. We expect to see a little more inventory trickle onto the market through the end of this year and into next year.”

Rising mortgage rates will likely keep high prices under control

Rising mortgage interest rates are expected to keep price growth in check: After all, buyers can afford to fork over only so much for their monthly housing payments. So if rates rise, buyers won’t be able to afford more expensive properties.

This could result in lower price growth, or prices going flat or even dipping a little in certain markets.

“Once mortgage rates push up a little bit, it’s going to combine with higher home prices to price people out of the market,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Some markets could see prices go down a little, like in the most juiced markets. … [But] it’s not a crash.”

Rates are expected to top 3% by the end of the year and reach 4% by the end of 2022, says Joel Kan, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. They averaged 2.88% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending Sept. 23, according to the most recent Freddie Mac data.

Historically speaking, even 4% is still low. Over the past 20 years, mortgage rates averaged about 5%, according to MBA. The difference between a 3% and a 4% rate on a $380,000 home (the median list price nationally) was about $169 a month on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. That adds up to nearly $61,000 over the life of the loan.

“We’re expecting rates to increase moderately over the next 12 months,” says Kan. “As the economy improves, as the job market improves, typically that pushes rates higher. [But] there is a little bit more uncertainty now, given that we’ve seen the pandemic linger longer than we expected.”

How will the fall market affect home sellers?

While experts predict the housing market will remain firmly in the seller’s court, the days of picking prices out of thin air are likely coming to an end. The same goes for not making any improvements to a property (let alone having it properly cleaned) before listing it.

“Some sellers got a little too greedy or had a misconception about the market conditions,” says NAR’s Yun.

Zonda’s Wolf recommends sellers look at comps of other homes in their neighborhoods that have recently sold to get a realistic idea of what they can charge for their properties. They should also get their homes in tiptop shape. And while they may not get 20 offers like their neighbors may have received a few months ago, well-priced, move-in ready homes are in high demand.

“If you’re a seller today, you’ll likely still get top dollar, but you’re still going to have to put in the work,” adds Wolf. “Dust for cobwebs, stage the home, put on a fresh coat of paint.”

 

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: buyers, Coronavirus, days on market, fall, first time home buyers, home buyers, Home Inventory, Home Prices, home sellers, Housing, Housing Market, Low Inventory, Pandemic, Recession, Sellers, supply

Seattle area’s home prices take biggest-ever 12-month leap

July 7, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

A ferry departs Edmonds, part of Snohomish County’s rapidly climbing housing market, in November. Home prices in the Seattle metro area and around the country continue to increase steadily. (Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)

What a difference just two years can make.

Around this time in 2019, Seattle-area home prices had dipped and price growth nationwide was slowing.

Cut to 2021: Seattle has clocked another month as one of the hottest American housing markets as home prices here and nationwide climb at a record-breaking pace.

Single-family home prices in the Seattle metro area were up 20.2% in April from a year earlier, the region’s biggest-ever 12-month leap, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index released Tuesday. (The index lags by two months and reflects portions of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties.)

Travis Meidell, who works in tech and bought a home in Lake Stevens this spring, said the local housing market felt like it “got more competitive” over the course of his home search that stretched from 2020 into this spring. “It became more cutthroat.”

Prices climbed faster in Seattle than nationwide even as costs nationally jumped 14.6%, “literally the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data,” said S&P Managing Director Craig Lazzara in a statement.

For more than a year, a flood of buyer demand, a tight supply of homes and super-low interest rates have fueled wild growth in housing markets all over the country. While there are some recent signs buyer demand could finally be slipping, things were still red-hot in April.

The frenzied market has laid bare the vast divide of pandemic experiences, with many low-wage workers losing jobs early in the outbreak while others worked from home and tech stocks soared. Rising housing costs could also exacerbate racial gaps in homeownership. A recent Redfin survey found that Black homeowners were more likely than white homeowners to have made financial sacrifices, like taking on an extra job, in order to afford their first home.

Among major metro areas in April, only Phoenix and San Diego saw quicker year-over-year growth than Seattle, both at roughly 22%, according to the Case-Shiller index. The index reports a three-month rolling average of home prices.

Not everywhere in the Seattle area has seen the same trends. Many of the toughest markets to buy a home in recent months have been outside Seattle proper.

In April and May, home prices were up between 17% and 22% year-over-year in parts of Snohomish and Pierce counties, compared with jumps between 9% and 11% in Seattle, according to Zillow. Hot spots included Snohomish, Mill Creek and Lake Stevens in Snohomish County and Parkland in Pierce County.

All that competition has left homebuyers feeling the pressure.

Kristen Mandery, who grew up in Edmonds, has watched the sizzling market with a front-row view as she searched in recent months for a new house to be close to her mom.

The first house for which she submitted an offer went to another buyer for $400,000 over its list price, the second for $375,000 over. She finally secured her new house in an off-market deal and paid about $25,000 over the list price.

“I’ve lived in this area over 40 years and I’ve never ever seen the housing market like this,” Mandery said.

When Meidell began searching, he and his wife hoped to buy in Edmonds but prices there eventually stretched beyond their reach, he said. They instead bought farther north in Lake Stevens, settling for a longer commute and paying about $90,000 over the five-bedroom home’s list price to compete against other buyers.

As the couple searched for a new house, Meidell said he set up a search with filters for his budget and other parameters. The options seemed to get slimmer before his eyes.

“Every week you could watch the dots just rapidly disappear,” Meidell said. “It was this continuous state of anxiety: If I don’t do this, eventually there will be nothing left.”

Just how long can all this last?

New data on local home sales to be released next week will show whether demand has begun to slow in Western Washington.

Nationally, CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp predicted Tuesday that price increases will stay in the double digits through the rest of this year.

Hepp argues that although jaw-dropping price jumps may feel reminiscent of the 2008 crash, “mortgage interest rates remain 50% lower than they were in 2005, when home price growth last peaked, keeping the ratio of mortgage payments to monthly households income lower today.”

By 

Heidi Groover 
Seattle Times business reporter

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Competing offers, Home Prices, Home Trends, Low Inventory, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate

King County begins mailing property valuations. Here’s where property value grew the fastest

June 22, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

The King County Assessor’s Office announced that it began mailing out property valuation notices to residents on Thursday, with some areas poised to see double-digit increases in value. The annual revaluation notices — required by state law — are issued for 720,000 pieces of property in the county and applied for taxes due in 2022.

Despite the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdowns, the office says that commercial property values have remained steady while residential property values in the county have “risen dramatically,” with some areas even seeing upwards of 20% increases in value.

“No one knew what to expect a little over a year ago when this public health emergency began,” said King County Assessor John Wilson in a news release. “Now it is clear that a primary impact on property values has been caused by homeowners not wanting to sell at this time, leading to reduced supply and big price and value increases.”

The areas seeing the largest jump in value are in the south and east portion of the county. Residential properties in Enumclaw and Black Diamond saw the largest increases in value, up 21% and 22% respectively from the previous year.

Woodinville and Duvall followed with values increasing 18%, while property values in East Auburn were up 15.5%. Skyway property values also increased 13%, according to data released by the assessor’s office.

Despite those high increases for suburban areas, Wilson predicts that the jumps in the Seattle metro area will be smaller, under 10%, although those numbers are not yet confirmed by the office.

n King County, property owners have a 60-day window in which they can appeal their valuation. Wilson said that assessors across the state are working on a program to offer property tax assistance to homeowners, although it is still in its nascent stage. That comes after the assessor’s exemption team saw a 300% increase in applications for tax relief in the past year.

“As we come out of COVID, we will continue to step up our outreach to senior homeowners, disabled homeowners, veteran homeowners,” Wilson said. “We recognize that for folks on fixed income or work hourly jobs with unpredictable hours, homeownership has become something where taxes are a factor that they worry about.”

It’s no secret that the real estate market in the Emerald City has been red hot with high prices and low inventory driving competition. A recent report from Zillow found that while for-sale home inventory in Seattle went up about 11.3% month over month in March, it was still 20% lower than it was at the same time last year.

“March often sees a boost in inventory, and the return to some seasonal norms is a positive sign that supply is beginning to catch up with demand,” Zillow Economist Treh Manhertz said.

The assessor’s office mailed out property tax bills back in February, and most residents in King County saw close to a 4.03% general increase in tax collections due to voter-approved special levies. However, some saw double-digit hikes in what they had to pay: Algona had the highest with an 18% increase compared to 2020 followed by Maple Valley and Pacific, which are up 15% and 13% respectively.

Enumclaw also saw a double digit increase in property taxes this year, up 11% from 2020. Countywide, collections were up $256 million from the previous year, totaling $6.6 billion.

The first-half of 2021 property taxes are due April 30, and second-half 2021 property taxes are due by Oct. 30.

The process of mailing the notices is rolling, and residents should expect to receive their valuations within the next several months.

 

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Hot Real Estate Market, Low Inventory, property tax

How to buy a house in the Seattle area’s red-hot 2021 real estate market

April 19, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Want to buy a house in the Seattle area? You’ll need stockpiles of cash in the bank, endless free time and a masochistic streak.

OK, maybe it’s not quite that bad.

Still, the region’s housing market is one of the hottest in the country. Prices are up. Inventory is selling fast. Your dream home could draw dozens of competing offers. It will likely sell for more than the list price, maybe even to an all-cash buyer.

So frenzied is this sellers’ market that some buyers can barely get in to see a home before someone else snags it.

“We’re halfway through our appointment, we’re gushing about how we want to make an offer and the Realtor gets an alert that they accepted an offer earlier today,” recalled recent buyer Alice Cryer. “We were standing in the house.”

Along the way, buyers are expected to make quick decisions with high stakes. Will you have the house inspected? (What about the sewer?) There’s a cash buyer making a better offer — can you pay any more?

“We watched a lot of HGTV,” said James Johnson, who with his wife, Emily, bought a Tacoma town house this year. “It was nothing like you saw on television.”

We talked to real estate brokers, lenders and recent buyers to put together a more realistic picture.

Before you buy

Saving up: Long before you set up your Redfin alerts, your financial status will shape your homebuying experience.

How much do you make? How much have you been able to save for a down payment? Do you already own a home you’ll be selling? Do you have stocks or a 401(k) to tap for extra cash? Can your family help? If a lender takes a deep dive into your finances, what will they find?

Even with assistance programs and today’s low mortgage interest rates, many people will be locked out of homebuying.

By one estimate, a household would need to make nearly $107,000 a year to afford a home in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area with a 20% down payment. With less money to put down, you need an even higher income. For a buyer putting 10% down, the salary threshold increases to about $125,000. Home-ownership rates show stark racial gaps. In Washington, 67% of white people own a home compared to 31% of Black people.

The pandemic has only underscored those gaps, said Tacoma-based Windermere agent Sharon Chambers-Gordon.

“The essential workers who are the backbone of this country doing the work that is allowing us to live and eat are the ones who have been left behind in being able to purchase a home,” Chambers-Gordon said. “Even when you have payment assistance programs, you still need access to cash.”

As a homebuyer, your finances will factor into where you can buy and whether you’ll have an edge over other eager shoppers.

Generally speaking, the old rule of thumb that you need 20% for a down payment isn’t a hard-and-fast requirement. But in the most competitive areas, that’s common.

The median buyer in King County during the final quarter of last year paid 18.4% for their down payment, or roughly $134,000. In Pierce County, where home prices are climbing but more affordable, buyers paid a much lower 4.6%, or about $19,500, according to ATTOM Data Solutions.

Other costs: The down payment isn’t the only pot of cash you’ll need.

In the most competitive markets, expect to pay for inspections, sometimes on multiple houses, at roughly $500 each or more (plus more to look at the sewer — more important than it sounds!). At the end of the deal, you’ll pay closing costs of roughly 2 to 5% of the price of your home.

You’ll likely need to set aside a deposit in an escrow account, also known as your “earnest money,” to show a seller you’re serious about your offer. This can range from 2 or 3% of the price of the house to 10%, depending on how competitive the area is, brokers say. Depending on the conditions you attach to this money, the seller could keep it if you back out of the deal. If all goes well, you can apply this later to your down payment or closing costs.

Look for assistance programs: If saving tens of thousands of dollars for a down payment feels out of reach, look for assistance programs. In the most expensive neighborhoods, it can be harder to secure a house with less money down, so even with assistance, your offer may be less competitive.

An FHA loan, insured by the federal government, allows you to put 3.5% down. Veterans may qualify for VA-backed loans with no down payment.

Michael Pokryfke combined a VA loan, $2,200 in savings and $15,000 borrowed from his retirement account to buy a two-bedroom condo in Renton. “I was under the assumption I’d never buy a house,” he said.

To help with a down payment, the Washington State Housing Finance Commission offers no-interest loans of up to 4% of the mortgage for families who make $145,000 a year or less, have a credit score of at least 620 and use the commission’s mortgage programs. The loans are deferred, meaning you don’t have to repay until your mortgage is paid off or you sell or refinance.

Look for a homebuyer education course to learn more, and talk to your agent about what’s possible — and what’s realistic — in today’s market.

Preparing to house hunt

Find your agent and lender: You’re not looking for just anyone to help with the biggest purchase of your life. Take time to find a real estate agent and a lender you trust. A recommendation from friends or family with firsthand experience is a good place to start for both.

Treat this like interviewing candidates for a job. Talk to a few before you choose. Suss out how well they know the local market.

Ask a potential real estate agent how they’re tracking the local market and how many recent local sales they’ve had. Find someone who won’t sugarcoat the current challenges.

A loan officer should be able to walk you through different financing options, including assistance programs, and should be quick to return your calls and emails, brokers said. Local connections could give you an edge. Sellers’ agents may prefer local loan officers they know and trust to finish the closing process quickly.

Line up a loan: Unless you’re bringing all cash, you’ll need a loan — and you’ll need to be well into the lending process before you start house hunting. Forget getting “preapproved”: Buyers are increasingly getting pre-underwritten, a step further along in the approval process. If a lender has scoured your financials, a seller can have more confidence your deal won’t fall through.

“It’s not as good as cash, but it’s the best you can do when you’re financing,” said Aaron Crossley, sales manager at Caliber Home Loans.

This process can be more invasive for self-employed borrowers. A lender may look at a longer income history for someone who is self-employed, and the effects of the pandemic can show up here. Say your bar, restaurant or freelance career took a serious hit during the pandemic but is returning to normal now. A lender looking at two or three years of your finances will have to consider those 2020 losses.

The search

“Miserable.” “Cutthroat.” “Exhausting and depressing.” “The worst.”

Those are a few ways recent homebuyers described the process of searching for a home in the Seattle area.

Their advice: Have your priorities clear when you start searching. What’s most important to you? What can you live without? Do you and your partner each have veto power?

Get real about list prices: They can be meaningless. Because so many houses sell for over their list price — nearly half in the Seattle area, according to Zillow — look at homes listed below the amount you can actually spend in order to leave room for sweetening your offer.

“I tell people in this market if you’re looking to purchase a home for $1 million, start looking at $750,000 to $800,000,” said Umpqua Bank loan officer Amie Edmondson.

“I was completely addicted to Zillow,” said Hayley Sayre, who with her wife, Anna, bought a home in Tacoma last fall. The couple, both teachers, said a walk around each neighborhood where they made an offer gave them a sense of how they would like living there.

Go farther, and consider condos: Look as far from your ideal destination as you’re willing to go. Keep an eye out for homes that have been lingering on the market. But, with construction costs soaring, be careful not to fall for a fixer-upper that will be a money pit. Each week, take a night off from scouring listings to avoid burnout, suggested Cryer, who recently closed on a three-bedroom house in Parkland, south of Tacoma.

If you’re not set on a single-family house, add condos and townhomes to your search.

As buyers look for more space indoors and outdoors, the condo market is less bruising. Across King County, including in Seattle, condo prices are climbing more slowly than single-family home prices. (The condo market is hotter on the Eastside and in South King County.) In Seattle, it would take nearly two months to sell through all the inventory at current demand, compared to a little over two weeks for single-family homes.

“If you don’t need that single-family home,” said Redfin agent Shoshana Godwin, “don’t compete for it.”

So you love that house

You’ve found a house where you can picture yourself making waffles and playing with your future labradoodle puppy. Great!

Now don’t get attached.

Many buyers lose their first offer, if not several. You need to be committed enough to offer hundreds of thousands of dollars for the place, but ready to let go if you lose. Several buyers said they reminded themselves there would “always be another house.”

Prepare to bid: When you’re ready to start bidding, the dollar amount isn’t the only factor that will make your offer stand out. You’ll have to decide whether to waive various protections known as contingencies.

In theory, buyers can make their offers contingent on a variety of factors to safeguard their purchase. You can await an inspection, financing from a bank or an appraiser confirming the home is worth the price. But in a sellers’ market like this, the race is on to drop those protections to make your offer more attractive to the seller.

Know a few of your key contingencies:

Early release of earnest money: Remember, earnest money is that upfront deposit you bring to show the seller you’re serious. Making that money nonrefundable and releasing some early to the seller means if the deal falls through, you’ll lose the cash.

Inspection contingency and pre-inspections: Gone are the days you can count on having your offer accepted and then doing an inspection to find any potential issues with the house. Many buyers are now waiving this contingency, instead either paying for a “pre-inspection” before they put the offer in, accepting an inspection paid for by the seller, or skipping the inspection altogether.

Skipping your own inspection “is kind of the nuclear option,” said Dylan Chalk, of Orca Inspection Services, who’s been working as a home inspector for nearly two decades. But if you’re going to do it and the seller offers their inspection, look for pictures, videos and plenty of specific detail about the house, Chalk suggests. A good inspection should feel like “an owner’s manual for the house,” he said.

Appraisal contingency: Once you’ve been approved for a mortgage, your bank still wants to check out the price it will be covering for the house.

Usually, this contingency would protect you if the appraiser finds the house is worth less than you offered. However, buyers increasingly face pressure to agree to pay any difference between the appraised value and their offer. If you plan to do this, you’ll need to be prepared with money to cover any difference between what the bank will lend you and the cost of the house. With no idea what that difference might be, this is a high risk.

Financing contingency: Waiving this means if your loan falls through, you could lose your earnest money. You could also potentially be required to buy the house anyway or face a lawsuit, though brokers say legal action is rare since typically the seller can quickly find another buyer.

The bad news is that while waiving these protections offered an edge in the past, they’re well-known strategies now. A small snapshot: Among Seattle-area Redfin offers in March, nearly eight in 10 waived the financing contingency, six waived the inspection contingency and fewer than one in ten waived the appraisal contingency.

No one hack will guarantee you get the house you love. Buyers need “luck, money and resilience,” said Seattle-based Compass broker Jennica Lynn.

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

When James and Emily Johnson, the Tacoma buyers, sat down with their agent, Chambers-Gordon, they couldn’t believe some of the advice she offered, like doing pre-inspections and making their best possible offer right away.

“We were real hesitant to listen in the beginning. She was telling us things that sounded so out in left field,” Emily Johnson said.

But after losing out on an offer and struggling to find other homes, the couple decided to follow the agent’s advice and eventually got the home. “We tried to learn from our mistakes,” said Emily.

From pending to closed

You’re so close! But it’s not over yet. After you’ve secured a house, the closing process will bring another round of paperwork and, according to recent buyers, more anxiety.

If you did include the contingency in your offer, now is the time to inspect the home. You’ll also get the lender’s appraisal and go through the final steps with your bank. Expect to answer a flood of requests for documents as an underwriter reviews your loan for final approval.

Closing can bring a laundry list of costs depending on your situation, like insurance premiums, prepaid interest for the start of your mortgage, and various fees.

The key: Be prepared. Get an itemized list of these costs before making an offer, if you can, said Washington Trust loan officer Liz King. “You shouldn’t be surprised.”

By 

Heidi Groover 
Seattle Times business reporter

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: applying for a loan, Competing offers, Find your agent and lender, Home Prices, Hot Real Estate Market, Low Inventory, save money

Why This Winter’s ‘Slow’ Home-Selling Season May Be Hotter Than Ever

November 9, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Winter is traditionally real estate’s slow season. Between the cold weather and the holidays, the housing market typically plunges into a hibernation of sorts, with both buyers and sellers shelving any major real estate moves until spring.

This winter’s real estate market, however, is shaping up to be unlike any other before it—and, contrary to what some may have feared, is slated to be an excellent time to sell a home. In fact, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, predicts “it will be one of the best winter sales years ever.”

So if you’ve assumed you should put your home-selling plans on hold until spring, read on for a surprising reality check on all the reasons this winter could be a great time to put your house on the market.

Pandemic lockdowns have created pent-up buyer demand

While spring is typically real estate’s busy season, the “silent spring” of 2020 saw the housing market grind to a near halt amid pandemic-mandated lockdowns. This, in turn, created pent-up demand to purchase property that is only now being unleashed.

Why? Chalk it up to a perfect storm of low mortgage interest rates, sparse housing inventory, plus a pandemic that’s fundamentally changed how, when, and where buyers are shopping for homes.

“We currently see buyers sticking around in the housing market much later than we usually do this fall,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com®. “If that trend continues, we will see more buyers in the market this winter, too. So this winter is likely to be a good time to sell.”

“There are plenty of people in the pipeline ready to hit the market this late autumn and winter,” Yun agrees.

Many real estate agents have noticed this glut of eager buyers first-hand.

“Winter is usually a slower season, but this year we’re not seeing any sign of letting up,” says Matt van Winkle, a real estate broker and owner of Re/Max Northwest Realtors in Seattle. “The selling season was delayed because of COVID lockdowns and stay-at-home orders, so several months of usual busy sales periods were delayed.”

This buyer demand likely won’t wane anytime soon.

“We will see an extended purchase season in 2020 and into 2021,” says Shelby McDaniels, channel director of corporate home lending at Chase.

Lockdowns are forcing many buyers to upsize their homes

COVID-19 has not only created pent-up demand, but many buyers are also in the market purely because they’re working/schooling from home and realizing their space is no longer big enough—particularly now that the temperature’s dropping so they can’t easily escape to their back patio to catch up on emails alone.

“With people spending so much time in their homes, including working from home and virtual schooling, there’s a great emphasis on being happy there,” says Matt Curtis, owner of Matt Curtis Real Estate, in Huntsville, AL. Lack of space is a complaint agents hear more often now.

And if people are allowed to continue working from home rather than commuting to an office, they might also realize that they can shop for homes farther outside cities—great news for home sellers who live in more remote areas.

Housing inventory is low

Although buyers are plentiful, the number of homes for sale is way lowerthan usual. According to realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Market Trends Report, in September, national housing inventory declined 39% over last year.

“Because the number of homes available is currently at a record low, even if we see some improvement, which I expect, there will still be relatively few homes for sale,” Hale says. “That will keep upward pressure on home prices and help ensure that homes continue to sell quickly.”

“Inventory is low, so the overall advantage is with the seller,” agrees Yun.

Tracy Jones, a real estate agent with Re/Max Platinum Realty in Sarasota, FL, says buyers have so few homes to choose from these days that they’re feeling forced to make quick decisions about whether to make an offer, or risk losing out on the chance. Nationally, homes spent an average of 54 days on the market in September, 12 fewer days than last year, according to the realtor.com trends report.

“The buyers I have worked with this year only had a handful of homes to look at,” Jones says. “They had no time to wait and talk about it, and they had to fight other buyers if they wanted to buy them.”

Sellers can get top dollar for their homes

It’s simple supply and demand: Low supply and high demand are bound to drive up home prices, so sellers stand to make a killing.

Across the country, median home listing prices jumped 11.1% in September compared with a year ago, to $350,000, according to realtor.com. Price per square foot increased by 13.9%.

“Sales prices and home values remain strong,” McDaniels says. And since there are so many offers on the table, “sellers can call the shots regarding terms of contract and repairs.”

The only challenge sellers face with such low inventory—if you can even call it a challenge—is dealing with too many offers at once, says Curtis.

“The challenge they face is navigating multiple offers and not accepting an offer too quickly to help ensure they get the most money for their home,” he says.

Mortgage interest rates are low

Although buyers will face stiff competition, it’s not all bad news for them. For one, despite high home prices, record-low interest rates mean they’ll save a ton of money.

Interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate loan were 2.8% as of Oct. 22, according to Freddie Mac.

This “boosts buyer home purchasing power,” Hale says. “In fact, despite double-digit increases in home prices this year compared to last year, today’s home buyers are likely actually paying slightly less on their mortgage each month, thanks to much lower mortgage rates.”

The Federal Reserve has continued to lower interest rates this year to keep the economy going during the COVID-19 crisis, says McDaniels.

“Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, economists and real estate professionals predicted mortgage interest rates would remain below 4% in 2020,” she says. “This means buyers that might have waited will consider entering the market this year.”

Any economic shift likely won’t be felt until spring

Although unemployment continues to rise due to COVID-19 layoffs, Hale says this could affect the real estate market, but the effects likely won’t be felt for a few months.

“A worsening unemployment rate would lead to a slowdown in the housing market and home sales, but I don’t expect that to happen immediately, more likely in the spring,” Hale says. This could create a slower start to the spring home-buying season.

Plus, if another round of stimulus money appears, this would fuel consumer spending.

“This would be a good thing for the housing market and the economy at large,” Hale says.

By Erica Sweeney

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Low Inventory, Pandemic, Record Low Interest Rates, Upsizing, Winter Real Estate Market

Mortgage Interest Rates Break Records And Fall To The Lowest Levels Ever Recorded

September 15, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Interest rates have found a new low. This week, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 2.86%, well below the 3% threshold that just a few months ago most people were saying would be the lowest they could reach. As we closed out August, interest rates had already come down to 2.91%, slightly above the previous record low of 2.88%, according to the weekly report from Freddie Mac. But now we have nudged even lower and momentum suggests they will see at least one more new lowest rate before we too much further into fall.

The decrease in rates has been met with an increase in applications, even though the Labor Day holiday usually puts a pause on housing activity. For the week ending Friday, September 4, both purchase and refinance applications increased 3%, but refinances continued to show their dominance by making up 63.1% of the total number of applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

(Even though Labor Day was Monday, September 7, after the data collection for this report closed, it is still considered an influencing factor since the week leading up to the holiday typically sees a slowdown in mortgage activity.)

Mortgage interest rates, Mortgage rates

The mortgage interest rates for traditional mortgages have continued their steep decline.

FREDDIEMAC

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, commented that demand activity has seen double digit increases for the past four months, but points out, “Heading into the fall it will be difficult to sustain the growth momentum in purchases because the lack of supply is already exhibiting a constraint on sales activity.”

The other record that was broken last week is the amount of money people are borrowing to buy a home. The MBA survey shows purchasers borrowed an average of $368,600 for their loan—which is the highest the MBA has recorded in the survey’s 30-year history. (The weekly report covers over 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the U.S.) As rates have dropped, purchasing power has increased, with Redfin reporting that buyers who have a $2,500 per month budget for housing can now afford a home that is at least $30,000 more expensive compared to a year ago.

The rates might see some small fluctuations but they aren’t going to see any large increases for the next few months. The biggest hurdle continues to be lack of supply in popular markets. But if people are able to borrow more money, that could entice sellers to list their homes this year while they have a greater chance of selling at a higher asking price.

Amy Dobson

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Freddie Mac, Home Buying, Interest Rates, Low Inventory, Multiple Offers

Tight housing inventories and January price jumps hint at a sellers’ spring. Look at prices in your community.

February 11, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Falling interest rates, strong job growth and declining inventories could be setting the conditions for a spring reprise of the painfully hot housing market of 2017, local real estate agents say.

Although home prices rose only modestly in Seattle and King County in January, some brokers report growing signs of a continued shift back to a seller’s market, including the return of multiple offers, resumption of bidding wars, and open houses that feel more like stampedes.

On Superbowl weekend, a single home on Capitol Hill drew 280 prospective buyers on Saturday, said John Deely, principal managing broker with the Seattle office of Coldwell Banker Bain. “And we still had quite a bit of traffic on Sunday during the game,” he added.

One key factor: a Seattle-area job market that continues to add new buyers, many of them well-paid.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seattle-area employment jumped 3.4% between December 2018 and December 2019, the second largest increase in the nation after the Dallas region.

Another factor: the buildup of local housing inventory that normally starts in January and February and peaks in the spring has been delayed, said Deely. Instead, “home sales are exceeding the volume of inventory coming onto the market,” he said. “It looks like we’re headed back to a market that looks a lot like 2017.”

Those premonitions are bolstered by the January sales figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Although the median home price in Seattle–$719,950–was just 1.2% higher than in January 2019, according to figures released Thursday, closings were up 19% year over year and inventory fell by more than half, leaving barely a month’s supply of homes on the market.

And that modest increase in median price for January had less to do with demand than with supply: In some areas, a large number of sellers of higher-end homes took their properties off the market in late 2019, which skewed the remaining supply toward the lower end of the price range, Deely said.

That seemed to be the pattern in Queen Anne-Magnolia neighborhood, for example, where the number of sales jumped 90% even as the median price fell 0.2% year over year, to $984,500.

But elsewhere, high-end sellers in some higher-end neighborhoods saw ample appreciation. In the Kirkland-Bridle Trails area, the median home price jumped 15.6% year over year, to $1.46 million.

Elsewhere in King County, falling inventories and rising demand were already pushing up median prices, especially in communities with less-expensive homes.

Across Southwest King County, for example, the number of homes on the market in January was half the level of a year ago, while the median price rose 12.3%, to $459,000.

Bargain hunters also continued to push up prices in areas just outside the core Seattle-Bellevue area. In Snohomish County, the median price of a home in January jumped 12.1% year over year, to $509,950. In Pierce County, the median price climbed 15.2%, to $380,000.

Deely says lower inventory and higher demand also seems to be bringing back another figure from the 2017 housing market: the “all-cash buyer wanting to close in a couple of weeks.”

By 

Paul Roberts

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Falling Interest Rates, Home Sales, Hot Selling Market, Low Inventory

Housing market expected to heat up in King, Pierce Counties

January 16, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Real estate experts say low inventory will mean the hottest housing market in years. Experts also call for an increase in bidding wars on homes.

GIG HARBOR, Wash. — Real estate experts say the 2020 housing market is going to heat up to levels that haven’t been seen since 2017.

According to Northwest Multiple Listing Service, the number of homes on the market has dropped dramatically: 54% in Thurston County, 41.4% in King County, and 40% in Pierce County.

That means the homes that are on the market are expected to sell faster and go for more.

“We have record low inventory, so when houses do come on the market, they’re gone,” said Windermere real estate agent Cindy Marchand. “We normally have them sold within a week to 10 days. Sometimes faster.”

Windermere agent Nick Dahl said the crunch has triggered a heightened interest in new construction, like Gig Harbor’s Cushman Pointe development, which features 51 lots.

“We’ve been moving a lot faster than we actually anticipated,” said Dahl. “We’ve sold 19 homes already, and I think we’ve beat most of our goals in terms of selling houses per month.”

Come spring and summer, the hot market will likely mean an uptick in bidding wars.

Redfin, the Seattle-based real estate brokerage site, expects about 25% of offers to face bidding wars in 2020 compared to only 10% last year.

Along with low inventory, the factors driving the crunch include a strong job market, low-interest rates, and an influx of out-of-state buyers.

Marchand said current market forecasts show the market may not cool off until 2021.

http://www.king5.com/video/features/jonbyedec19/281-ab12c4ef-017e-4fb5-b024-26474c0264a3?jwsource=cl

Author: Christin Ayers

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Bidding Wars, Housing Market Heating Up, Low Inventory

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Eastside Real Estate Blog

The Cost Of Purchasing A Home In The U.S. Increased 55% Last Year. But It’s Still A Great Time To Buy A House For These Five Reasons

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