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‘The Fever Has Broken’: Is the Housing Market Frenzy Really Going To Cool Off This Fall?

October 6, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

 

Over the next few weeks and months, the long-overheated U.S. housing market is expected to continue to cool off in the bracing chill of autumn.

After a wild year of unprecedented price increases, a worsening shortage of homes for sale, and cutthroat bidding wars where offers six figures over the ask price weren’t uncommon, conditions are finally normalizing. More homes are expected to go up for sale this season just as many would-be buyers are either priced out or so fed up after losing out on home after home that they’re dropping out of the running.

“The fever in the housing market has broken,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of building consultancy Zonda. “There have been buyers that have just been beat down for the last six months—and after losing so many homes and going through the emotional roller coaster, they’ve decided to stop searching for now. There are more homes on the market than there were six months ago.”

During the COVID-19 pandemic, record-low mortgage interest rates, below 3%, helped many homebuyers to absorb prices that reached all-time highs in the spring and summer. But prices rose so high so quickly that even bargain mortgage rates couldn’t offset them enough to give buyers some needed financial relief.

With more folks sidelined, some of the steam has been let out of the market. Prices aren’t rising by as much as competition is down and homes are taking a little longer to sell, giving buyers some breathing room.

In September, the rate of year-over-year growth was halved, to 8.6%, down from its peak of 17.2% in April, according to Realtor.com® data. This means the median list price of a home grew half as fast as in the spring. Homes also took a bit longer to sell, at about 43 days. While that’s down 11 days from the same month last year and 22 days from 2019, it’s up 6 days from June.

“Things are settling down. There will still be some multiple offers, but it will be less tense,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®. He expects the days of homes receiving 20 to 30 offers are becoming a thing of the past. “And some homes are lingering on the market for a week or two without an offer.”

This fall, buyers may once again be able to include contingencies in their offers, such as requiring home inspections and appraisals, and still win out bidding wars. They may even—gasp—get homes at the list price.

All-cash offers could also dip if buyers don’t need to cash out their savings, stocks, and cryptocurrency stashes to stand out from the competition.

“It’s not like the market is soft,” says Yun. “It’s just moving away from that extreme frenzy.”

The changes in the housing market may be coinciding with the seasonal slowdown. Typically, competition is fierce in the summer as families battle over larger homes in the suburbs, hoping to secure residences and settle in before the kids start school. Then the market slows down with less competition for the smaller homes that traditionally go up for sale.

Yun expects annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, around 5%, versus the double-digit price hikes that reigned earlier in the year. But this may not be true for every home in every part of the country.

“If you want a reasonably priced home in a desirable area, be ready to still face stiff competition,” says Zonda’s Wolf.

Will home prices fall?

The question on the minds of sellers, buyers, homeowners, and just about everyone else is whether prices might actually fall. Sorry, buyers, that likely won’t happen anytime soon.

The nation is still suffering from a severe housing shortage resulting in more buyers than there are abodes for sale. This is a continuing hangover from the Great Recession’s aftermath, when builders largely held off on building while investors bought up single-family homes and turned them into rentals. Meanwhile, the millennial generation is larger than the previous one, meaning there are more prospective buyers than there were a decade or so ago.

There’s plenty of pent-up demand for homes.

“You’ve still got a lot of young people who have still not bought a home but who would like to,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “Anytime the market starts to cool, you’ve got people on the sidelines waiting for their chance to get in. That keeps both home sales and home prices from declining too much.”

She expects more homes to hit the market in October and through the end of the year. But it won’t be enough to ameliorate the problem of demand.

The nation is still short about 5 million homes, Hale says. As builders can’t get them up fast enough, she expects it will take between five and six years before there are enough homes for sale to meet demand.

New construction is beginning to pick up after months of builders contending with shortages in lumber, labor, materials, and appliances. While there are still delays compared with before the pandemic, there was about a 5% uptick in construction in August compared with July, says Zonda’s Wolf.

“Inventory is still very, very tight,” says Wolf. But “we’re up from the bottom. We expect to see a little more inventory trickle onto the market through the end of this year and into next year.”

Rising mortgage rates will likely keep high prices under control

Rising mortgage interest rates are expected to keep price growth in check: After all, buyers can afford to fork over only so much for their monthly housing payments. So if rates rise, buyers won’t be able to afford more expensive properties.

This could result in lower price growth, or prices going flat or even dipping a little in certain markets.

“Once mortgage rates push up a little bit, it’s going to combine with higher home prices to price people out of the market,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Some markets could see prices go down a little, like in the most juiced markets. … [But] it’s not a crash.”

Rates are expected to top 3% by the end of the year and reach 4% by the end of 2022, says Joel Kan, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. They averaged 2.88% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending Sept. 23, according to the most recent Freddie Mac data.

Historically speaking, even 4% is still low. Over the past 20 years, mortgage rates averaged about 5%, according to MBA. The difference between a 3% and a 4% rate on a $380,000 home (the median list price nationally) was about $169 a month on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. That adds up to nearly $61,000 over the life of the loan.

“We’re expecting rates to increase moderately over the next 12 months,” says Kan. “As the economy improves, as the job market improves, typically that pushes rates higher. [But] there is a little bit more uncertainty now, given that we’ve seen the pandemic linger longer than we expected.”

How will the fall market affect home sellers?

While experts predict the housing market will remain firmly in the seller’s court, the days of picking prices out of thin air are likely coming to an end. The same goes for not making any improvements to a property (let alone having it properly cleaned) before listing it.

“Some sellers got a little too greedy or had a misconception about the market conditions,” says NAR’s Yun.

Zonda’s Wolf recommends sellers look at comps of other homes in their neighborhoods that have recently sold to get a realistic idea of what they can charge for their properties. They should also get their homes in tiptop shape. And while they may not get 20 offers like their neighbors may have received a few months ago, well-priced, move-in ready homes are in high demand.

“If you’re a seller today, you’ll likely still get top dollar, but you’re still going to have to put in the work,” adds Wolf. “Dust for cobwebs, stage the home, put on a fresh coat of paint.”

 

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: buyers, Coronavirus, days on market, fall, first time home buyers, home buyers, Home Inventory, Home Prices, home sellers, Housing, Housing Market, Low Inventory, Pandemic, Recession, Sellers, supply

Bidding wars are off the charts, as home listings fall to a record low

February 17, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Presidents Day weekend marks the unofficial start of the spring housing market, but if you’re looking to get in this year, hold onto your wallet. Bidding wars are off the charts, even as home prices are rising rapidly.

The primary reason longtime home searchers haven’t bought a house yet is because they keep getting outbid. About 40% of potential buyers cited that in a new survey by the National Association of Home Builders. The reasons are flipped from a year earlier, when 44% said unaffordable prices were the biggest reason they hadn’t bought yet, and 19% cited getting outbid.

Well over half of all buyers, 56%, faced bidding wars on their offers in January, according to a Redfin survey. That is up from 52% in December. More than half of homes are now going under contract in less than two weeks.

“With so few new listings hitting the market, I expect bidding wars to become more common and involve even more potential buyers as we head into the spring homebuying season,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.

She advises buyers to be ready to go see properties the moment they hit the market and to get preapproved for a mortgage.

“But know when to back away if the price escalates more than you’re willing to pay,” Fairweather added.

Competition is fierce across the nation, but worst in Salt Lake City, where 9 out of 10 offers faced competition, according to Redfin’s survey of 24 major markets. It was followed by San Diego (78.9%), the Bay Area (77.1%), Denver (73.9%) and Seattle (73.8%).

The problem is supply, or lack thereof — record low supply. Sudden strong demand, driven by the stay-at-home culture of the Covid pandemic, swiftly smacked into already low inventory, due to lackluster homebuilding. Record-low mortgage rates only fueled demand even more.

Paul Legere is a buyer’s agent with the Joel Nelson Group in Washington, D.C. He says his job is only getting tougher.

“The low cost of money now has buyers able to be more aggressive and willing to overpay for properties. As a buyer’s agent, tasked with trying to help clients find value, that piece of the equation is nearly impossible to do,” said Legere. “It is a constant struggle and scramble to find desirable targets.”

Sellers have also pulled back, not wanting to go through the ordeal of putting their homes on the market during Covid. The number of newly listed homes in January was down 29% year over year, pushing the total inventory down 47%, according to realtor.com.

Home prices had appreciated at a double-digit rate each week for 26 straight weeks leading into January. The median listing price for a home was up nearly 13% compared with January 2020.

“Lower mortgage rates are making monthly payments for higher priced homes more manageable,” said realtor.com’s chief economist, Danielle Hale. “But finding a home that checks the right boxes amid limited supply, and saving up for the larger down payment needed with higher home prices, continue to be challenging, especially for first-time home buyers who haven’t accumulated home equity as prices have gone up.”

Diana Olick

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Bidding Wars, homeownership, Pandemic, Spring Housing Market, Supply & Demand

Why This Winter’s ‘Slow’ Home-Selling Season May Be Hotter Than Ever

November 9, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Winter is traditionally real estate’s slow season. Between the cold weather and the holidays, the housing market typically plunges into a hibernation of sorts, with both buyers and sellers shelving any major real estate moves until spring.

This winter’s real estate market, however, is shaping up to be unlike any other before it—and, contrary to what some may have feared, is slated to be an excellent time to sell a home. In fact, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, predicts “it will be one of the best winter sales years ever.”

So if you’ve assumed you should put your home-selling plans on hold until spring, read on for a surprising reality check on all the reasons this winter could be a great time to put your house on the market.

Pandemic lockdowns have created pent-up buyer demand

While spring is typically real estate’s busy season, the “silent spring” of 2020 saw the housing market grind to a near halt amid pandemic-mandated lockdowns. This, in turn, created pent-up demand to purchase property that is only now being unleashed.

Why? Chalk it up to a perfect storm of low mortgage interest rates, sparse housing inventory, plus a pandemic that’s fundamentally changed how, when, and where buyers are shopping for homes.

“We currently see buyers sticking around in the housing market much later than we usually do this fall,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com®. “If that trend continues, we will see more buyers in the market this winter, too. So this winter is likely to be a good time to sell.”

“There are plenty of people in the pipeline ready to hit the market this late autumn and winter,” Yun agrees.

Many real estate agents have noticed this glut of eager buyers first-hand.

“Winter is usually a slower season, but this year we’re not seeing any sign of letting up,” says Matt van Winkle, a real estate broker and owner of Re/Max Northwest Realtors in Seattle. “The selling season was delayed because of COVID lockdowns and stay-at-home orders, so several months of usual busy sales periods were delayed.”

This buyer demand likely won’t wane anytime soon.

“We will see an extended purchase season in 2020 and into 2021,” says Shelby McDaniels, channel director of corporate home lending at Chase.

Lockdowns are forcing many buyers to upsize their homes

COVID-19 has not only created pent-up demand, but many buyers are also in the market purely because they’re working/schooling from home and realizing their space is no longer big enough—particularly now that the temperature’s dropping so they can’t easily escape to their back patio to catch up on emails alone.

“With people spending so much time in their homes, including working from home and virtual schooling, there’s a great emphasis on being happy there,” says Matt Curtis, owner of Matt Curtis Real Estate, in Huntsville, AL. Lack of space is a complaint agents hear more often now.

And if people are allowed to continue working from home rather than commuting to an office, they might also realize that they can shop for homes farther outside cities—great news for home sellers who live in more remote areas.

Housing inventory is low

Although buyers are plentiful, the number of homes for sale is way lowerthan usual. According to realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Market Trends Report, in September, national housing inventory declined 39% over last year.

“Because the number of homes available is currently at a record low, even if we see some improvement, which I expect, there will still be relatively few homes for sale,” Hale says. “That will keep upward pressure on home prices and help ensure that homes continue to sell quickly.”

“Inventory is low, so the overall advantage is with the seller,” agrees Yun.

Tracy Jones, a real estate agent with Re/Max Platinum Realty in Sarasota, FL, says buyers have so few homes to choose from these days that they’re feeling forced to make quick decisions about whether to make an offer, or risk losing out on the chance. Nationally, homes spent an average of 54 days on the market in September, 12 fewer days than last year, according to the realtor.com trends report.

“The buyers I have worked with this year only had a handful of homes to look at,” Jones says. “They had no time to wait and talk about it, and they had to fight other buyers if they wanted to buy them.”

Sellers can get top dollar for their homes

It’s simple supply and demand: Low supply and high demand are bound to drive up home prices, so sellers stand to make a killing.

Across the country, median home listing prices jumped 11.1% in September compared with a year ago, to $350,000, according to realtor.com. Price per square foot increased by 13.9%.

“Sales prices and home values remain strong,” McDaniels says. And since there are so many offers on the table, “sellers can call the shots regarding terms of contract and repairs.”

The only challenge sellers face with such low inventory—if you can even call it a challenge—is dealing with too many offers at once, says Curtis.

“The challenge they face is navigating multiple offers and not accepting an offer too quickly to help ensure they get the most money for their home,” he says.

Mortgage interest rates are low

Although buyers will face stiff competition, it’s not all bad news for them. For one, despite high home prices, record-low interest rates mean they’ll save a ton of money.

Interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate loan were 2.8% as of Oct. 22, according to Freddie Mac.

This “boosts buyer home purchasing power,” Hale says. “In fact, despite double-digit increases in home prices this year compared to last year, today’s home buyers are likely actually paying slightly less on their mortgage each month, thanks to much lower mortgage rates.”

The Federal Reserve has continued to lower interest rates this year to keep the economy going during the COVID-19 crisis, says McDaniels.

“Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, economists and real estate professionals predicted mortgage interest rates would remain below 4% in 2020,” she says. “This means buyers that might have waited will consider entering the market this year.”

Any economic shift likely won’t be felt until spring

Although unemployment continues to rise due to COVID-19 layoffs, Hale says this could affect the real estate market, but the effects likely won’t be felt for a few months.

“A worsening unemployment rate would lead to a slowdown in the housing market and home sales, but I don’t expect that to happen immediately, more likely in the spring,” Hale says. This could create a slower start to the spring home-buying season.

Plus, if another round of stimulus money appears, this would fuel consumer spending.

“This would be a good thing for the housing market and the economy at large,” Hale says.

By Erica Sweeney

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Low Inventory, Pandemic, Record Low Interest Rates, Upsizing, Winter Real Estate Market

Five Ways The Pandemic Has Influenced Interior Design Trends In 2020

October 13, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

The pandemic has changed life as we know it in every way, but especially how we live in our homes. In a short period, the home has become a place to work, exercise, relax, and even attend school. This has been the single biggest influence on design trends this year.

While many people have moved or are beginning to renovate, most of us are simply doing the best with what we have. After all, due to shutdowns, shortages, and demand for design-related services, there really isn’t an alternative. From the reality of COIVD life, to creating as pleasant an environment as possible, here are five ways the pandemic has influenced interior design trends in 2020.

Open Floor Plans Are On The Way Out

Had most homeowners, real estate agents, and interior designers been asked in January if they thought the open concept was here to stay, the answer would likely have been a resounding yes. But if you asked the same group in September, the answer might have been a little different. While open floor plans aren’t falling entirely out of fashion, they’re no longer as practical and desirable as they once were. “[My clients] still want big kitchens that open on to a family room—but home offices, outdoor spaces, and Zoom rooms (or at least a dedicated space for Zoom meetings) are big on wish lists,” interior designer Caitlin Scanlon of Caitlin Scanlon Design tells me.

Gavin Brodin of Brodin Design Build has received similar feedback. His clients have been looking for ways to create luxury upgrades to transform their homes into sanctuaries with amenities like meditation and massage rooms as well as secret gardens. But they want to limit the amount of money they spend on these projects. “During this time, many clients need to stay on a budget, so it’s a challenge to make a space beautiful and stay within a practical budget,” he tells me.

But the pandemic has truly had the biggest impact on those living in smaller spaces such as apartments. “All of the activities that we’re doing at home have kind of changed the game a little bit,” says Home Director of Apartment Therapy, Danielle Blundell. “[We’re] looking to actually have defined spaces again, and some semblance of privacy and compartmentalization for things like working from home, exercising and people being home at the same time and taking calls.”

Blundell has also noticed that when it comes to sectioning off spaces— people are becoming a lot more creative, using everything from divider screens to curtains and partitions to carve out dedicated zones.

Home Offices Are Now Just Offices

While some people have gone back to their regular offices at least part of time, most of us are still working from home, including CEO and founder of Manna Kadar Cosmetics, Manna Kadar. She has no plans to return and wants her employees to remain home as well. “We will eventually get back into the office in the safest way possible, but we have adapted to this new normal and won’t rush into it,” she tells me.

Manna Kadar's home office

Manna Kadar’s home office

MANNA KADAR

Kadar has also used this time to make a few upgrades to her home office “It’s been important to make my at-home working environment just as beautiful as my office: an aesthetically pleasing clean, private area to focus!”

In addition to rearranging her furniture, Kadar added additional warm neutral elements and plants to the space. She also likes to work with her pets by her side.

Virtual Interior Design Is Booming

Lisa Landers, stylist, and owner of Swirl, a popular southern California clothing boutique chain closed on her new home just as the shutdown was beginning. She needed new furniture and realized that using a virtual interior design service wasn’t just a practical choice, it was essentially her only choice because all the stores were closed.

“Modsy seemed like the next best option,” she tells me. “After submitting multiple photos of our space, links to furniture we already had that we wanted to incorporate, and filling out a thorough design questionnaire, our beautiful plans were submitted to our inbox.”

Landers collaborated with her designer over the phone, as well as online. “We could swap out pieces in the actual plans and see exactly how they would look in our space.”

She ended up incredibly happy with the results. “We loved this experience so much that we would do it again.”

But virtual interior design isn’t limited to using services like Modsy, or it’s major competitor Havenly. Scalon, along with many other independent interior designers is getting plenty of requests for Zoom consultations and e-design services.

Happiness Is A Decorating Choice

It’s not a surprise that many people are trying to create uplifting moods environments in their homes right now. This is especially true when it comes to decor and accessories. “Maybe it’s a wallpaper with a vibrant pattern or a ceramic face that’s sort of a silly, squiggle shape. It’s nostalgia that could be a retro-inspired refrigerator or even a modern quilt. It can be that things can touch every room in the home, and furnishings that just bring you comfort and joy,” says Blundell.

While we’re not exactly saying bye to black, rich pops of color are very much on-trend right now. For example, Scanlon’s clients have requested bolder hues. “After hunkering down looking at the same (mostly white walls) I’m using a lot saturated paint colors—moody for some rooms, bright and uplifting for others. Clients are craving variety in their experience of home!

Retailers including Alix Greenberg, who is the founder of ArtSugar have also noticed an increase in demand for bright, kitschy items. “My customers want things that are happy and uplifting! And I understand this too! Because while we are all stationed at home, there is nothing like a pop of color on your wall to make your day a little brighter.”

During the pandemic, ArtSugar’s top selling products have been their bright and colorful acrylic trays, as well as acrylic mountable smilie faces and gem stone wall art. In addition to that, the Home Sweet Home Cutting Board has also been incredibly popular.

Home Is More Important Than Ever 

Being forced to stay at home has made many of us realize just how important interior design really is. “I personally was able to realize how much I could do from home within my own business,” says Landers. “With Amazon, virtual meetings, workouts, and food delivery it really made being at home all the time more palatable and we are willing to invest more into making it our sanctuary because home is not only where the heart is…it’s where everything is now.”

By: Amanda Lauren

Forbs

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Home Office, Home Trends, Interior Design, Pandemic

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Larry & Kathy Reichle

371 NE Gilman Blvd. #160
Issaquah, WA 98027

Phone: 206-999-1690

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Eastside Real Estate Blog

The Cost Of Purchasing A Home In The U.S. Increased 55% Last Year. But It’s Still A Great Time To Buy A House For These Five Reasons

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