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‘The Fever Has Broken’: Is the Housing Market Frenzy Really Going To Cool Off This Fall?

October 6, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

 

Over the next few weeks and months, the long-overheated U.S. housing market is expected to continue to cool off in the bracing chill of autumn.

After a wild year of unprecedented price increases, a worsening shortage of homes for sale, and cutthroat bidding wars where offers six figures over the ask price weren’t uncommon, conditions are finally normalizing. More homes are expected to go up for sale this season just as many would-be buyers are either priced out or so fed up after losing out on home after home that they’re dropping out of the running.

“The fever in the housing market has broken,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of building consultancy Zonda. “There have been buyers that have just been beat down for the last six months—and after losing so many homes and going through the emotional roller coaster, they’ve decided to stop searching for now. There are more homes on the market than there were six months ago.”

During the COVID-19 pandemic, record-low mortgage interest rates, below 3%, helped many homebuyers to absorb prices that reached all-time highs in the spring and summer. But prices rose so high so quickly that even bargain mortgage rates couldn’t offset them enough to give buyers some needed financial relief.

With more folks sidelined, some of the steam has been let out of the market. Prices aren’t rising by as much as competition is down and homes are taking a little longer to sell, giving buyers some breathing room.

In September, the rate of year-over-year growth was halved, to 8.6%, down from its peak of 17.2% in April, according to Realtor.com® data. This means the median list price of a home grew half as fast as in the spring. Homes also took a bit longer to sell, at about 43 days. While that’s down 11 days from the same month last year and 22 days from 2019, it’s up 6 days from June.

“Things are settling down. There will still be some multiple offers, but it will be less tense,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®. He expects the days of homes receiving 20 to 30 offers are becoming a thing of the past. “And some homes are lingering on the market for a week or two without an offer.”

This fall, buyers may once again be able to include contingencies in their offers, such as requiring home inspections and appraisals, and still win out bidding wars. They may even—gasp—get homes at the list price.

All-cash offers could also dip if buyers don’t need to cash out their savings, stocks, and cryptocurrency stashes to stand out from the competition.

“It’s not like the market is soft,” says Yun. “It’s just moving away from that extreme frenzy.”

The changes in the housing market may be coinciding with the seasonal slowdown. Typically, competition is fierce in the summer as families battle over larger homes in the suburbs, hoping to secure residences and settle in before the kids start school. Then the market slows down with less competition for the smaller homes that traditionally go up for sale.

Yun expects annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, around 5%, versus the double-digit price hikes that reigned earlier in the year. But this may not be true for every home in every part of the country.

“If you want a reasonably priced home in a desirable area, be ready to still face stiff competition,” says Zonda’s Wolf.

Will home prices fall?

The question on the minds of sellers, buyers, homeowners, and just about everyone else is whether prices might actually fall. Sorry, buyers, that likely won’t happen anytime soon.

The nation is still suffering from a severe housing shortage resulting in more buyers than there are abodes for sale. This is a continuing hangover from the Great Recession’s aftermath, when builders largely held off on building while investors bought up single-family homes and turned them into rentals. Meanwhile, the millennial generation is larger than the previous one, meaning there are more prospective buyers than there were a decade or so ago.

There’s plenty of pent-up demand for homes.

“You’ve still got a lot of young people who have still not bought a home but who would like to,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “Anytime the market starts to cool, you’ve got people on the sidelines waiting for their chance to get in. That keeps both home sales and home prices from declining too much.”

She expects more homes to hit the market in October and through the end of the year. But it won’t be enough to ameliorate the problem of demand.

The nation is still short about 5 million homes, Hale says. As builders can’t get them up fast enough, she expects it will take between five and six years before there are enough homes for sale to meet demand.

New construction is beginning to pick up after months of builders contending with shortages in lumber, labor, materials, and appliances. While there are still delays compared with before the pandemic, there was about a 5% uptick in construction in August compared with July, says Zonda’s Wolf.

“Inventory is still very, very tight,” says Wolf. But “we’re up from the bottom. We expect to see a little more inventory trickle onto the market through the end of this year and into next year.”

Rising mortgage rates will likely keep high prices under control

Rising mortgage interest rates are expected to keep price growth in check: After all, buyers can afford to fork over only so much for their monthly housing payments. So if rates rise, buyers won’t be able to afford more expensive properties.

This could result in lower price growth, or prices going flat or even dipping a little in certain markets.

“Once mortgage rates push up a little bit, it’s going to combine with higher home prices to price people out of the market,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Some markets could see prices go down a little, like in the most juiced markets. … [But] it’s not a crash.”

Rates are expected to top 3% by the end of the year and reach 4% by the end of 2022, says Joel Kan, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. They averaged 2.88% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending Sept. 23, according to the most recent Freddie Mac data.

Historically speaking, even 4% is still low. Over the past 20 years, mortgage rates averaged about 5%, according to MBA. The difference between a 3% and a 4% rate on a $380,000 home (the median list price nationally) was about $169 a month on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. That adds up to nearly $61,000 over the life of the loan.

“We’re expecting rates to increase moderately over the next 12 months,” says Kan. “As the economy improves, as the job market improves, typically that pushes rates higher. [But] there is a little bit more uncertainty now, given that we’ve seen the pandemic linger longer than we expected.”

How will the fall market affect home sellers?

While experts predict the housing market will remain firmly in the seller’s court, the days of picking prices out of thin air are likely coming to an end. The same goes for not making any improvements to a property (let alone having it properly cleaned) before listing it.

“Some sellers got a little too greedy or had a misconception about the market conditions,” says NAR’s Yun.

Zonda’s Wolf recommends sellers look at comps of other homes in their neighborhoods that have recently sold to get a realistic idea of what they can charge for their properties. They should also get their homes in tiptop shape. And while they may not get 20 offers like their neighbors may have received a few months ago, well-priced, move-in ready homes are in high demand.

“If you’re a seller today, you’ll likely still get top dollar, but you’re still going to have to put in the work,” adds Wolf. “Dust for cobwebs, stage the home, put on a fresh coat of paint.”

 

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: buyers, Coronavirus, days on market, fall, first time home buyers, home buyers, Home Inventory, Home Prices, home sellers, Housing, Housing Market, Low Inventory, Pandemic, Recession, Sellers, supply

Are you waiting for house prices to drop during the next recession? Why you could have a very a long wait

February 25, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

It’s unclear when the next recession will come. But a recent report argues that when it does the U.S. housing market is unlikely to adversely affected in any major way.

Researchers at First American Financial Services FAF, -0.71%, a title insurance company, examined how the country’s housing market has fared historically during recessionary periods. Based on what’s happened in past recessions, the report argues that the next recession is unlikely to prompt a major downturn in housing.

“While the housing crisis is still fresh on the minds of many, and was the catalyst of the Great Recession, the U.S. housing market has weathered all other recessions since 1980,” wrote Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American and the report’s author. “In fact, the housing market may actually aid the economy in recovering from the next recession — a role it has traditionally played in previous economic recoveries.”

Using its own data along with information from Freddie Mac FMCC, -2.13%  and the National Association of Realtors, the report maps out how the housing market has traditionally fared in economic downturns. In most other cases, home price appreciation continued at an even pace, and existing-home sales growth only edged downward slightly, Kushi wrote.

On average, U.S. house prices fell approximately 33% during the Great Recession.

So what made the Great Recession different? The housing boom that preceded the last recession was largely driven by an explosion in both home-building activity and mortgage credit. Home buyers were able to get mortgages with no documentation of their income and no down payment, and many loans had introductory 0% interest periods that made them cheap to start but more expensive as time wore on.

These homeowners were over-leveraged. “The housing crisis in the Great Recession was fueled heavily by the fact that job loss was paired with a significant share of homeowners who didn’t have much equity in their homes,” Kushi wrote.

And because developers constructed so many homes, their home values quickly sank when the bubble burst, exacerbating the situation further.

The growth in home prices seen during the current economic expansion has not been fueled by increased access to mortgage credit. Rather, it’s a simple reflection of supply and demand: Many Americans want to become homeowners, but the supply of homes available for sale is very low, pushing prices upward.

While this has made the prospect of buying a home unaffordable for millions of Americans, it has also meant that those who are homeowners have seen their home equity grow substantially in recent years. That decreases the likelihood that they would be underwater on their loan if home prices were to dip in a recession.

“Were we to have a recession, I’d argue housing would provide a cushion because the shortage of supply at the entry-level suggests builders could actually continue to build,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist FNMA, -3.00%, told MarketWatch in December.

There still are red flags that homeowners should be on the lookout for when it comes to how a potential recession might affect the housing market. For starters, many Americans have taken out cash-out refinance mortgages on their homes as their home values have grown. That’s whittled away the equity these people have in their property, leaving them more vulnerable to owing more than their home was worth in the potential event the home prices drop.

Another issue: Many Americans who fell behind on loan payments and modified their mortgages in the wake of the recession to avoid foreclosure have since redefaulted. Were these people to lose their jobs in a recession, they could easily fall into foreclosure. Research has shown that foreclosures exacerbate economic downturns — and they can have a ripple effect through a local market, causing other homes to drop in value.

And at the local level, certain local housing markets could prove more resilient in the event of recession, depending on the strength of the local economy relative to what’s going on at a national level.

By: Jacob Passy

Filed Under: Issaquah Lifestyle Blog Tagged With: Home Value, Housing Market, Recession

Rising Home Values Hitting Pre-Recession Peaks

August 7, 2018 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

New research from Zillow indicates that seven out of 35 of the largest U.S. housing markets have regained all value lost during the recession, and that could signal a looming turning point in those markets. Zillow considers a market to have recovered to pre-recession values when more than 95% of homes surveyed in a market are worth more than their peak value during the housing boom. In this housing cycle, that equates to those markets have a median home value of $217,300.

The seven markets to surpass pre-recession peaks join 14 others that had already reached this milestone, leaving only 14 markets still below pre-recession highs. “In markets like Las Vegas that got farthest ahead of themselves during the boom and, consequentially, fell the most, a large majority of the homes are still not worth as much today as they were a decade ago,” observed Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas. He added markets that were “more stable” prior to the housing crash have recovered more quickly.

Scars of the Recession

Terrazas went on to warn that even in recovered markets, “the scars of the recession still run deep for millions of longer-term U.S. homeowners.” He said it could take “years of growth” for some homeowners to regain lost value and that stabilization of rent rates may not be enough to enable buyers in competitive markets to save enough money to buy a home in the near future.

What Does Recovery Mean for a Housing Market?

While Terrazas is concerned about homebuyers in competitive markets finding prices still out of reach in many cases, other analysts say that hitting the pre-recession-peak milestone may be the first signal that a market is about to turn. For example, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Schiller said recently, “This could be the very beginning of a turning point,” although he emphasized he would not yet make that call.

Bloomberg contributors Prashant Gopal and Sho Chandra were not willing to make that call yet either, but they did recently marshal evidence that some regional markets might be cooling. The two wrote, “A slew of figures released this week gives ample evidence of at least a cooling,” citing:

  • Falling existing-home-sales volumes
  • The slow pace of new-home purchases
  • Rising inventory
  • The rate of price increases climbing less, year-over-year, than it has since early 2017
  • Shares of national builders declining in value

Carole VanSickle Ellis

Filed Under: Eastside Real Estate Blog, Home Value, Homeownership, Issaquah Real Estate, King County home prices, Larry and Kathy Reichle, What's Trending Tagged With: Home ownership, Home Trends, Issaquah Real Estate, Recession

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Larry & Kathy Reichle

371 NE Gilman Blvd. #160
Issaquah, WA 98027

Phone: 206-999-1690

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Eastside Real Estate Blog

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