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5 trends fueling one of the hottest housing markets in US history

June 2, 2021 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

The housing market is on fire.

What began as a pickup in demand early in the pandemic has evolved into an all-out buying spree. Sales of new and previously owned homes, while off their peaks, remain elevated. Construction has picked up somewhat, but contractors are struggling to shore up supply. With inventory sitting near record lows, price growth has accelerated to rival the 2000s housing bubble.

Reports published Tuesday confirmed the boom is alive and well. Prices soared through March at the fastest rate since 2005, according to S&P CoreLogic. Separately, Census Bureau data showed new single-family home sales slowing 5.9% through April. Still, the sales pace sits well above the pre-pandemic norm.

But it’s not just conventional gauges posting shocking superlatives — fundamental change is afoot in US housing. Alternative data, from lumber prices to the realtor-to-listing ratio, show a handful of structural shifts taking place throughout the market. Glenn Kelman, CEO of real-estate brokerage Redfin, unpacked several of them on a Twitter thread that racked up more than 14,000 likes in less than 48 hours.

1 – Buyers face a persistent shortage of available homes

Home for sale
A real estate sign is seen in front of a house for sale in West Los Angeles on November 20, 2020. 
Chris Delmas/AFP/Getty Images

At its core, the market boom is simply a result of too few homes. Economists are largely confident that, while trends are similar to the mid-2000s bubble, it’s a nationwide supply shortage driving prices higher, and not risky lending practices.

  • More realtors than listings

The number of available homes in the US totaled 1.16 million at the end of April, according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR ended last month with 1.48 million members.

The association’s membership has exceeded listings through much of the year as sales bite into home availability.

  • Historically low inventory

The national supply of available homes in the US plummeted to record lows at the start of the pandemic and have only just risen from those levels through 2021. The monthly inventory rose to 4.4 months in April, but the bounce has as much to do with a slowing pace of sales as it does with a pickup in construction.

  • Homes selling at a record pace

When homes are coming up for sale, they aren’t staying on the market all that long. The average home now sells in a record-low 17 days, Kelman wrote on Twitter.

2 – People are fleeing cities for cheaper locales

moving
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 1: Edward Cardona (left) and Cameron Secorsky take it carry a house plan on top of a couch as they move in Allston, Sept. 1, 2016. September 1st in Boston is also known as “September Worst” because of the chaos of moving, and “Allston Christmas” because of all the things that are left on the curb for the taking when people move in and out of apartments. (Photo by David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) 
David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

The story of the 2020-2021 housing market is also one of migration. Americans largely fled densely populated cities for suburbs and traded their apartments for homes while mortgage rates were low. And after years of intense crowding in metropolitan areas, people seeking more space during the work-from-home period rushed to less populated states.

  • Low-tax states seeing huge inflows

Attractive tax rates seemingly played a major role in the moving bonanza. Four people moved into low-tax states for every one that left, Kelman said. That ratio rose to 5:1 in Texas and 7:1 in Florida.

  • Moving families face a new status quo

Americans who moved during the pandemic took a few risks. In a Redfin survey of 2,000 homebuyers, 63% said they bid on a home they hadn’t seen in person yet.

Separately, those moving to low-tax states enjoyed far lower housing costs. In many instances, the money saved allowed one parent to stop working, and many buyers are retiring early, Kelman said in a Wednesday tweet.

  • Inventory and prices up in SF and NYC

Still, some of the country’s biggest cities aren’t down for the count. Inventory has swung higher in New York City and San Francisco by 28% and 77%, respectively, according to Kelman. Yet prices are increasing steadily in both markets, suggesting that, while many are moving out, enough are moving in to support already lofty prices.

3 – It’s getting more and more expensive to build homes

construction workers building home
Construction workers build a new Centex home on Tuesday, June 23, 2020, in Houston. 
David J. Phillip/AP

The simplest solution to slowing homes’ rapid price growth would be to increase supply. Yet the combination of a historic surge in demand with supply-chain bottlenecks as the economy reopened have hindered contractors.

  • Lumber prices exploded higher

Most recently, surging lumber costs cut into builders’ efforts. Prices soared to record highs earlier in May and closed 280% higher year-over-year on Tuesday.

  • Not enough building space

Even if lumber cost less, there’s scant room to build homes. The New Home Lot Supply Index — which tracks lots ready for building — fell 10% to a record low in the first quarter, according to housing analytics firm Zonda.

Even the firms that have empty lots are running behind in converting them to sellable homes. About 242,000 authorized homes hadn’t been started yet in April, the Census Bureau said last week. That’s the highest level since 1979. 

  • Builders waiting for the opportune moment

The various shortages and bottlenecks have led builders to hit the brakes and wait for profitability to rebound. Nearly one-in-five contractors surveyed by the National Association of Realtors in April said they’re delaying construction or sales.

About 47% said they added escalation clauses to contracts last month. The clauses allow contractors to lift homes’ selling prices to offset an increase in building costs.

4 – Pricey construction, unrelenting demand is driving stronger home inflation

housing

REUTERS/Mike Blake

With builders unable to meet demand with new supply, prices predictably shot through the roof. Experts see home-price inflation staying hot into 2023, and with selling prices already elevated, a long rally could further dent home affordability across the US.

  • Prices hit record highs

While the rate of sales has cooled slightly, price growth remains strong. The median selling price of new homes rose to a record-high $372, 400 in April, the Census Bureau said Tuesday.

The median price for previously owned homes rose to a record of its own last month. The average existing home cost $341,000 in April, the National Association of Realtors said on May 21.

  • Sell-over-ask at record highs

For those looking to sell, there’s never been a better time. Homes are selling on average for 1.7% above their asking price, Kelman wrote on Twitter. That’s the largest average overshoot on record.

5 – Americans increasingly prioritize value and space

open house homebuyers

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Still, not all buyers are losing out as the market boom charges onward.

  • Two-thirds of buyers say they snagged great deals

A Redfin survey of 600 homebuyers found that about two-thirds of people who moved during the pandemic bought a unit that was the same size or larger than their previous home. The same share of buyers spent the same or less on housing, the firm added.

  • Most had more cash after they moved

Moving during the pandemic also tended not to break the bank. Of the Americans reporting they moved into larger homes, 78% said they have the same amount of disposable income or more after their move, Kelman said.

“Idaho home price could triple and still seem affordable to a Californian,” the Redfin CEO said in a tweet.

Ben Winck

 

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Buying a home, Home Sales, Home Shortage, Hot Real Estate Market, Record Low Interest Rates, Selling your home, Trending Housing Topics

Why This Winter’s ‘Slow’ Home-Selling Season May Be Hotter Than Ever

November 9, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Winter is traditionally real estate’s slow season. Between the cold weather and the holidays, the housing market typically plunges into a hibernation of sorts, with both buyers and sellers shelving any major real estate moves until spring.

This winter’s real estate market, however, is shaping up to be unlike any other before it—and, contrary to what some may have feared, is slated to be an excellent time to sell a home. In fact, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, predicts “it will be one of the best winter sales years ever.”

So if you’ve assumed you should put your home-selling plans on hold until spring, read on for a surprising reality check on all the reasons this winter could be a great time to put your house on the market.

Pandemic lockdowns have created pent-up buyer demand

While spring is typically real estate’s busy season, the “silent spring” of 2020 saw the housing market grind to a near halt amid pandemic-mandated lockdowns. This, in turn, created pent-up demand to purchase property that is only now being unleashed.

Why? Chalk it up to a perfect storm of low mortgage interest rates, sparse housing inventory, plus a pandemic that’s fundamentally changed how, when, and where buyers are shopping for homes.

“We currently see buyers sticking around in the housing market much later than we usually do this fall,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com®. “If that trend continues, we will see more buyers in the market this winter, too. So this winter is likely to be a good time to sell.”

“There are plenty of people in the pipeline ready to hit the market this late autumn and winter,” Yun agrees.

Many real estate agents have noticed this glut of eager buyers first-hand.

“Winter is usually a slower season, but this year we’re not seeing any sign of letting up,” says Matt van Winkle, a real estate broker and owner of Re/Max Northwest Realtors in Seattle. “The selling season was delayed because of COVID lockdowns and stay-at-home orders, so several months of usual busy sales periods were delayed.”

This buyer demand likely won’t wane anytime soon.

“We will see an extended purchase season in 2020 and into 2021,” says Shelby McDaniels, channel director of corporate home lending at Chase.

Lockdowns are forcing many buyers to upsize their homes

COVID-19 has not only created pent-up demand, but many buyers are also in the market purely because they’re working/schooling from home and realizing their space is no longer big enough—particularly now that the temperature’s dropping so they can’t easily escape to their back patio to catch up on emails alone.

“With people spending so much time in their homes, including working from home and virtual schooling, there’s a great emphasis on being happy there,” says Matt Curtis, owner of Matt Curtis Real Estate, in Huntsville, AL. Lack of space is a complaint agents hear more often now.

And if people are allowed to continue working from home rather than commuting to an office, they might also realize that they can shop for homes farther outside cities—great news for home sellers who live in more remote areas.

Housing inventory is low

Although buyers are plentiful, the number of homes for sale is way lowerthan usual. According to realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Market Trends Report, in September, national housing inventory declined 39% over last year.

“Because the number of homes available is currently at a record low, even if we see some improvement, which I expect, there will still be relatively few homes for sale,” Hale says. “That will keep upward pressure on home prices and help ensure that homes continue to sell quickly.”

“Inventory is low, so the overall advantage is with the seller,” agrees Yun.

Tracy Jones, a real estate agent with Re/Max Platinum Realty in Sarasota, FL, says buyers have so few homes to choose from these days that they’re feeling forced to make quick decisions about whether to make an offer, or risk losing out on the chance. Nationally, homes spent an average of 54 days on the market in September, 12 fewer days than last year, according to the realtor.com trends report.

“The buyers I have worked with this year only had a handful of homes to look at,” Jones says. “They had no time to wait and talk about it, and they had to fight other buyers if they wanted to buy them.”

Sellers can get top dollar for their homes

It’s simple supply and demand: Low supply and high demand are bound to drive up home prices, so sellers stand to make a killing.

Across the country, median home listing prices jumped 11.1% in September compared with a year ago, to $350,000, according to realtor.com. Price per square foot increased by 13.9%.

“Sales prices and home values remain strong,” McDaniels says. And since there are so many offers on the table, “sellers can call the shots regarding terms of contract and repairs.”

The only challenge sellers face with such low inventory—if you can even call it a challenge—is dealing with too many offers at once, says Curtis.

“The challenge they face is navigating multiple offers and not accepting an offer too quickly to help ensure they get the most money for their home,” he says.

Mortgage interest rates are low

Although buyers will face stiff competition, it’s not all bad news for them. For one, despite high home prices, record-low interest rates mean they’ll save a ton of money.

Interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate loan were 2.8% as of Oct. 22, according to Freddie Mac.

This “boosts buyer home purchasing power,” Hale says. “In fact, despite double-digit increases in home prices this year compared to last year, today’s home buyers are likely actually paying slightly less on their mortgage each month, thanks to much lower mortgage rates.”

The Federal Reserve has continued to lower interest rates this year to keep the economy going during the COVID-19 crisis, says McDaniels.

“Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, economists and real estate professionals predicted mortgage interest rates would remain below 4% in 2020,” she says. “This means buyers that might have waited will consider entering the market this year.”

Any economic shift likely won’t be felt until spring

Although unemployment continues to rise due to COVID-19 layoffs, Hale says this could affect the real estate market, but the effects likely won’t be felt for a few months.

“A worsening unemployment rate would lead to a slowdown in the housing market and home sales, but I don’t expect that to happen immediately, more likely in the spring,” Hale says. This could create a slower start to the spring home-buying season.

Plus, if another round of stimulus money appears, this would fuel consumer spending.

“This would be a good thing for the housing market and the economy at large,” Hale says.

By Erica Sweeney

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Low Inventory, Pandemic, Record Low Interest Rates, Upsizing, Winter Real Estate Market

Seattle-area housing market in one sentence: ‘What a difference a month makes’

July 17, 2020 by Kathy Reichle Leave a Comment

Home prices rose in the four-county metro area in June, but they climbed more in outlying areas as buyers sought to move to less congested areas.

Compared to a year ago, the Puget Sound region’s single-family housing market is in the dumps, but compared to earlier this year, it’s moving ever higher.

Record-low interest rates are fueling the market, with the region among the nation’s markets that are seeing the strongest recovery from the pandemic.

Strong demand and low inventory drove prices up in June, according to data the Northwest Multiple Listing Service released Monday. In the four-county metro, Pierce logged the largest increase, nearly 9%, followed up Kitsap (6.6%), Snohomish (5.2%) and King (4.3%).

Demand is especially strong in areas farther afield as buyers look to escape crowded cities and suburbs due to Covid-19 and urban strife

Median sale prices rocketed up from 12% in Thurston County (Olympia) to nearly 31% in Kittitas County (Ellensburg and Suncadia). Prices similarly rose in the counties that are home to Shelton, Port Townsend and Wenatchee/Chelan.

More space and lower prices and taxes make these areas more attractive now that people have discovered they can get most of their work done from home, Dean Rebhuhn, president of Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville, said in the NWMLS news release.

The extraordinarily low supply of homes for sale indicates prices could further climb in outlying areas still relatively close to Seattle, said James Young, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research.

A lack of housing stock is holding back the market. In the four-county metro, there were nearly 4,350 fewer homes for sale this June compared to last, a 48% decline. New listings were down 11%, closed sales were off 13% and pending sales were about even.

But compared to May, the June numbers were downright muscular. New listings were up 35%, closed sales were 39% higher and pending sales increased nearly 13%.

 

By Marc Stiles  – Staff Writer, Puget Sound Business Journal

Filed Under: Issaquah Community Blog Tagged With: Home Prices, Housing Market, Multiple Offers, Record Low Interest Rates

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Larry & Kathy Reichle

371 NE Gilman Blvd. #160
Issaquah, WA 98027

Phone: 206-999-1690

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Eastside Real Estate Blog

The Cost Of Purchasing A Home In The U.S. Increased 55% Last Year. But It’s Still A Great Time To Buy A House For These Five Reasons

I’ve always been all-in on homeownership. Yet, for the first time in two decades … Read More

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